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Comfort Independent School District
Demographic Summary Fall 2016
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Economic Conditions- San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA
Unemployment Rate SEPTEMBER 2016 4.1% 4.8% 4.9% 3.6% USA Texas San Antonio MSA Kendall County 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Annual Job Growth Rate SEPTEMBER 2016 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% Texas USA San Antonio MSA 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Texas Workforce Commission
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Economic Overview AMPCO by AJW
Ampco was recently acquired by AJW, and will continue to manufacture commercial building products (ex. washroom accessories, storage systems, wood doors and washroom petitions) The 260,000 sq. ft. expansion of the Comfort facility is close to completion Looking to hire an additional 160 to 200 employees if they expand their production line which might lead to 20 to 50 new students in CISD The proposed housing project with multi-family and single family units was denied by the county which could lead to the company leasing the space rather than expanding their production
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Texas Enrollment Trends
2015/16 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,299,5587 Total Growth ,522
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Region 13 & 20 Enrollment Trends
In the last 5 years, Comfort ISD declined 55 students
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Area Housing Activity
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Comfort ISD Residential Activity
The district has had 86 homes sales in 2016, and is on pace to sell more than 120 homes this year In 2015 Comfort ISD had a record 154 home sales The district’s average home sale price in 2016 is $247,458 280 resold homes are infill or custom homes Source: Metrostudy and Kendall County Deed Transactions
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Housing Overview Activity*
1. ALAMO SPRINGS RANCH 2. SOUTHERN OAKS 3. COMFORT PLACE MANUFACTURED HOME PARK 4. THE COMFORT VILLAGE 5. FALLING WATER 6. SHADOW VALLEY RANCH 7. APACHE CREEK 8. WOODRIDGE ESTATES 9. RIVER OAKS 10. LOS RICOS POBRE 1 5 10 6 4 3 9 8 2 7 *Developments with more than 40 lots
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Housing Overview Activity
SUBDIVISION OCCUPIED HOMES TOTAL HOMES TOTAL STUDENTS STUDENT YIELD ALAMO SPRINGS RANCH 151 314 22 0.15 SOUTHERN OAKS 17 0.11 COMFORT PLACE MANUFACTURED HOME PARK 140 182 1.30 THE COMFORT VILLAGE* 95 0.00 FALLING WATER 18 89 1 0.06 SHADOW VALLEY RANCH 36 75 5 0.14 APACHE CREEK 23 74 6 0.26 WOODRIDGE ESTATES 32 63 7 0.22 RIVER OAKS 28 58 0.21 LOS RICOS POBRE 20 42 2 0.10 TOTALS 599 1,101 248 0.41 *On hold, due to not meeting County standards for subdivisions
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Student Density Map Comfort ISD has 42 out of district transfer students This represents just 3.7% of the total student body 42% of the student body resides within the Census Designated Place of Comfort
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Student Transfer Report
* In 2015/16, 78 students transferred out of Comfort ISD, with the largest number of students attending Boerne ISD This year, 34 students that reside in Comfort ISD attend Boerne ISD The majority of the transfers into Comfort ISD come from Center Point ISD *2016/17 Total Transfers Out only includes students attending Boerne ISD
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Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level
Year(OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2012/13 33 80 90 92 68 93 79 86 85 82 78 74 1,115 2013/14 2 29 84 69 94 83 87 71 75 1,116 1 0.1% 2014/15 3 37 91 76 89 1,126 10 0.9% 2015/16 7 51 77 88 58 1,114 -12 -1.1% 2016/17 5 47 97 81 1,135 21 1.9% 2017/18 73 95 63 1,131 -4 -0.3% 2018/19 70 1,140 9 0.8% 2019/20 102 1,143 0.2% 2020/21 100 1,147 4 0.3% 2021/22 72 1,160 13 1.2% 2022/23 103 1,203 43 3.7% 2023/24 99 1,221 19 1.6% 2024/25 109 98 1,254 32 2.6% 2025/26 96 1,276 23 1.8% 2026/27 101 105 1,301 24 *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Comfort ISD will reach 1,200 students by 2022 5 year growth = 25 students 2021/22 enrollment = 1,160 students 10 year growth = 166 students 2026/27 enrollment = 1,301 students
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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS CAMPUS 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 COMFORT ELEMENTARY 545 539 541 528 523 534 540 559 574 592 605 619 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL Elementary School Absolute Change 9 -6 2 -13 -5 11 6 19 15 18 13 14 Elementary School Percent Change 1.68% -1.10% 0.37% -2.40% -0.95% 2.10% 1.12% 3.52% 2.68% 3.14% 2.20% 2.31% COMFORT MIDDLE SCHOOL 254 257 250 265 264 267 278 271 280 292 Middle School Absolute Change -7 3 16 -1 Middle School Percent Change -2.68% 1.18% -2.88% 6.33% -0.35% 1.00% -0.04% -0.08% 4.14% -2.45% 3.38% 4.03% COMFORT HIGH SCHOOL 315 339 341 347 356 346 353 377 370 391 390 High School Absolute Change -14 24 -10 7 21 1 High School Percent Change -4.26% 7.62% 0.54% 1.76% 2.50% -2.76% 2.15% 6.72% -1.94% 5.70% 0.17% -0.31% DISTRICT TOTALS 1,114 1,135 1,131 1,140 1,143 1,147 1,160 1,203 1,221 1,254 1,276 1,301 District Absolute Change -12 -4 4 43 32 23 District Percent Change -1% 1.89% 0.78% 0.24% 0.34% 1.16% 3.66% 1.56% 2.64% 1.82%
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Summary www.tdemographics.com
Kendall County’s unemployment rate is below 4%. San Antonio will continue to be a leader in job and population growth due its strong housing market and diverse economy. Comfort ISD is on pace to close more than 120 homes in 2016. The average student yield in the 10 largest Comfort ISD subdivisions is 0.41. 42% of district students reside within the Comfort census area. CISD can expect an increase of 25 students during the next 5 years. 2021/22 enrollment projection: 1,160 students. Comfort ISD is projected to have more than 1,300 students for the 2026/27 school year.
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