1. An Introduction to scenario planning

4. Source: DCDC Strategic Trends

5. Scenario Practice Learn about the key issues we face
Identify the influences changing our world
Create alternative futures relevant to the issues and responding to the influences
Identify the strategic implications
Create adaptive and generative strategies for today

6. Approach #1 Option 1 - Archetypes
Identify drivers of change and paint pictures of different futures.
The future is what we expect…
The future is better than expected…
The future is worse than expected…
The future is stranger than expected…

7. Approach #2 Option 2 - Matrix
Uncover a large number of critical uncertainties (things that are highly impactful but also highly uncertain).
Agree on two unrelated uncertainties and play one off against the other using a matrix.

8. Case Study
State Library of New South Wales (2009).

9. The Process Step 1: Ask the question Step 2: Uncover the uncertainties
Step 3: Choose 2 critical uncertainties
Step 4: Create the matrix
Step 5: Name and expand scenarios
Step 6: Overlay current strategy
Step 7: Options & action
Monitor for change

10. A Focusing Question
“What professional skills and attitudes will public library staff in NSW be demonstrating in 2030 in order to be successful in the alternative futures in which they might operate?
Where will the leadership and funding that drives this success come from?

11. Uncertainties
Having selected a question, the project moved forward with a series of interviews to uncover a series of critical uncertainties from which the scenarios could be built.
Key uncertainties (influences) included the following…

12. Change in role of government
Technology terrorism
Value of information
Library income
Equity and access
Consumerism
Infrastructure spending
Copyright issues
Media formats

13. Sustainability/climate change
Connectivity
Culture of immediacy
Legislation/regulation
Availability of skilled staff
The economy
Corporate ownership of information
Resource scarcity
Fee vs. free

19. Leadership & influence
The Strategic Domains
Internal structure
& administration
Community
engagement
Leadership & influence
Recognition &
promotion
Professional
development
Education training
& recruitment

20. Strategies within a Strategic Domain
Strategy B
Strategy A
Strategy C
Strategy D
Strategy E
Strategy F

21. Strategies by Domain Across the Scenarios
Strategy B Risky
Strategy A No Brainer
Strategy C No Brainer
Strategy D Keep Safe
Strategy E Risky
Strategy F Risky

22. Future Challenges Provision of national search capability
Focus on needs created by generational change
Liberate the use of library spaces
Think locally, act locally
Plug into community interests & skills
Promote trust in the library brand
Reward for providing government services
Core free services and new revenue opportunities

23. Future Challenges Conduct community needs assessments
Develop information literacy programmes
Ensure sustainable development
Develop partnerships with social providers
Rationalise the delivery of online services
Create social networking hubs
Lobby government on free access
Promote social stability
Standards to improve service delivery

24. Future Challenges Train staff as digital brokers
Develop specialist skills
Support user experimentation
Promote as a local community hub
Assess opportunities for a national brand
Seek partner funding
Integrate library and community services
Focus on local history and environment
Lobby with ‘one voice’

25. Now it’s your turn…