1. Aging and migration: a new understanding?
Prepared by Jean-Pierre Lachance
Economist, HRDCC
Quebec

2. Population of Quebec, 1971 to 2001
Source: Censuses. Statistics Canada

3. Population of Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, 1971 to 2001
Source: Censuses. Statististics Canada

4. Age groups, Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, 1981 to 2001
age age age age 45 and over
Source: Censuses. Statistics Canada

5. Regional population, present to 2021
Source: Institut de la Statistique du Québec (ISQ) forecasts

6. Declining birth rates and migration
Young people have always gone away, but natural growth (birth rate) compensated for losses.
Because the replacement needs will continue to grow, we will increasingly have to count on significant migratory movement.
Average migration in the last 5 years shows that the equivalent of 32 people a week (half of whom were between 18 and 24 years old) left the region.
In our last observation year alone ( ), we counted 2,749 net departures, the equivalent of 49 a week.

7. Question
Will the aging of the labour force sooner or later create a succession problem in firms that are not attracting young workers and are losing the experience of older workers?

8. Partners study
In 2000 and 2002, 3 studies were done involving firms with 10 or more employees.
Objective: To obtain a relatively precise estimate of departures, by occupation for specialized jobs, that will result from retirements anticipated on the short-term (3 years), medium-term (5 years) and long-term (7 years) horizons within a particular geographic region.

9. GOALS
To obtain useful information about the potential number of retirements, in order to prepare for appropriate succession in the community.
To share the results of the study with firms to make them aware of succession needs, and with educational institutions within the region so that the training they offer will be a better fit with the needs arising from future retirements.

10. Number of specialized jobs
Regional results
Sector
Number of specialized jobs
3-year forecast %
5-year forecast
7-year forecast
Saguenay (2002)
32,391
2,716
8.4
4,448
13.7
6,528
20.2
Lac-Saint-Jean (2001)
13,934
594
4.3
878
6.3
1,243
8.9
TOTAL
46,325
3,310
7.1
5,326
11.5
7,771
16.8
Source: Study of labour force erosion, 2001 and 2002.

11. Retirements anticipated, by occupation (higher volume in 7 years)
Title
Number of specialized jobs
Prev.
3 yrs. %
5 yrs.
7 yrs.
Trades workers:
(electricians, plumbers, machinists, etc.)
7907
810
10.2
1207
15.3
1607
20.3
Professional workers:
(professors, lawyers, psychologists, etc.)
2920
205
7.0
443
15.2
794
27.2
Processing, manufacturing and assembling workers:
(sawmill and pulp and paper mill operators, etc.)
1665
189
11.4
333
20.0
512
30.8
Primary processing workers:
(wood, pulp and paper processing occupations, etc.)
932
220
23.6
348
37.3
493
52.9

12. Activities - The public
LMI team: in , presented the economic outlook and results of the erosion study to:
55 groups comprising 1,616 students in regional educational institutions;
17 meetings with other social and economic organizations, attended by 278 people.
Participated with the Junior Chamber of Commerce and other partners in the “Youth Success” campaign.

13. Participated with other partners, including the Conseil régional de prévention de l’abandon scolaire [regional drop-out prevention council] and the MigrAction movement, in numerous conferences about the future for young people in the region.

14. Activities - Business Partners (Chambers of Commerce)
Advisory committee created
Results of the study presented at a socio-economic summit
4 discussion forums held with firms that participated in the study, concerning action to be taken today to guarantee tomorrow’s succession

15. Conclusion
Are we going to have a labour force that has sufficient numbers and is of sufficient quality to compensate for all retirements?
Will firms have the time to transfer skills to younger workers?