1. March 8, 2011 County of San Diego Economic Update
Donald F. Steuer
Chief Financial officer

2. Overview of Economic Indicators
Source: Alan Gin, Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, University of San Diego

3. Southern California Unemployment
Unemployment Rates in Southern California Counties
January 2011
(Median Rate is 11.1% For the Top 10 Counties in the State)
California
12.7%
Riverside County
14.3%
San Bernardino County
14.1%
Los Angeles County
13.1%
San Diego County
10.3%
Orange County
9.2%
Source: California Employment Development Department

4. Economic Realities Optimism But Continued Uncertainty
Retail Sales: Gaining Momentum
Prop 172
HHSA Realignment
Assessed Value (A/V) Growth: Sluggish
Predicting No Growth or Slightly Negative
Large Commercial Reassessments; Multi-Year Property Tax Refunds
A/V Drives 85% of General Purpose Revenue (GPR)

5. Assessed Valuation Assumptions
The property tax base has increased an average of 7.0% annually since
AV declined by 1.56%, less than anticipated. Mitigating current year impact of large multi-year one time commercial refunds.
AV is expected to be flat or slightly negative (-0.5%) .
The Roll will have a positive CPI adjustment, 0.753%
Large one time multi-year refunds anticipated.
8.7%
9.8%
10.3%
13.3%
12.1%
9.4%
4.6%
(1.56%)
(2.3%)

6. Historical &Projected SDCERA Funding Status
Valuation Date
Fiscal Year
UAAL
(in millions)
Employer Contributions
Funded Ratio
June 30, 2008 FY
1,566
206
84.3%
June 30, 2009 FY
2,292
224
78.5%
June 30, 2010 FY
3,028
296
73.2%
June 30, 2011 FY
3,661
372
69.5%
June 30, 2012 FY
3,606
441
71.7%
June 30, 2013 FY
3,599
504
73.4%
June 30, 2014 FY
3,531
519
75.3%
The County is obligated to make approximately 91.0% of the annual Employer Contributions and other participating employers are obligated to make approximately 9.0% based on the estimated relative percentage of payroll of the County and the other participating employers.
Actual contribution requirements are determined as a percentage of payroll.
Data Source: The Segal Group, Inc, November 10, Projection of Employer Contributions and funded ratios using results from the June 30, 2010 Valuation. Figures above do not include employer offsets.

7. Potential State Impacts
Program Realignment
Primarily Public Safety and Heath and Human Services
Reliant on Voter Approved Tax Extensions
Pivotal to Continued Funding of Probation Programs
Elimination of Redevelopment Districts
Program Reductions
CAL FIRE Staffing
CALWORKS Benefits
Transportation
Suspension of Reimbursements for Mandates

8. Economic Realities What Does it All Mean?
Short and Long Term Challenges:
Property Tax Base
Retirement Costs
State Budget Issues
Strategies to Match Expenditures to Revenues:
Full Cost Recovery (B-29)
Match Program Revenue-Based Services to Available Revenue
Continued Analysis of Labor Agreements
Evaluation of Future Capital Requirements
C.O.R.E