1. Optimum Operation of Reservoirs and Stations Murum – Bakun Cascade Operation and climate resilience
Chia Fuk Jing & Mubasher Hussain
Hydro Department
July 03, 2017
Technical Committee - K
ICOLD

2. Sarawak

3. Hydropower in Sarawak Murum HEP (2014) Batang Ai HEP (1985)
CFRD – 85 m high Dam
Reservoir – 90 km2
Surface powerhouse
Installed capacity – 108 MW
Bakun HEP (2012)
CFRD – 205 m high Dam
Reservoir – 695 km2
Installed capacity – 2,400 MW
Murum HEP (2014)
RCC dam – 141 m high
Reservoir 270 km2
Surface Power house
Installed capacity – 944 MW

4. Batang Ai HEP – 108 MW

5. Bakun HEP – 2,400 MW

6. Murum HEP – 944 MW

7. Rajang River Basin

8. HEPs DATA a) Climatic and Hydrological Data c) Plant Data
Station installed capacity
Rainfall
Turbine Efficiency curve
Temperature
System headlosses
Evaporation
Energy requirements
Measured flow records
Tailwater rating curves
b) Physical Data
Area capacity curves
Spillway Rating curves
Full supply Level
Minimum operating Level
Dam height

9. Modeling center expansion Horizontal resolution
CMIP5 GCMs
Modeling
center acronym
Modeling center expansion
Model name
Horizontal resolution
(lon × lat)
Identifier
CSIRO-BOM
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology, (BOM), Australia
ACCESS1.0
1.875° × 1.25° 1
ACCESS1.3 2
BCC
Beijing Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, China
BCC-CSM1.1
2.8° × 2.8° 3
BCC-CSM1.1m 4
BNU
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, China
BNU-ESM 5
CCCma
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada
CanESM2 6
CSIRO-QCCCE
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in collaboration with the Queensland
Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Australia
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0
1.875° × 1.865° 7
NOAA-GFDL
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
GFDL-CM3
2.5° × 2.0° 8
GFDL-ESM2G
2.0° × 2.0° 9
GFDL-ESM2M 10
NIMR, KMA
National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration South Korea
HadGEM2-AO 11
MOHC
Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
HadGEM2-ES 12
INM
Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia
INMCM4
2.0° × 1.5° 13
IPSL
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France
IPSL-CM5A-MR
2.5° × 1.267° 14
MIROC
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for
Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
MIROC5
1.4° × 1.4° 15
MIROC-ESM-CHEM 16
MPI-M
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Germany
MPI-ESM-LR 17
MPI-ESM-MR 18
MRI
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
MRI-CGCM3
1.12° × 1.12° 19
NCC, NMI
Norwegian Climate Centre, Norway
NorESM1-M
2.5° × 1.9° 20

10. GCMs –Future Projection
Evaluation of Models
Historical Data
GCMs –Controlled Run
GCMs –Future Projection

11. Evaluation of Models

12. Future Precipitation Projection over Rajang River Basin
Projected changes in precipitation over RRB for 2020′s ( ) , 2050′s ( ) and 2080′s ( ) compared to baseline period of 1976—2005.
Percentage Changes in future precipitation
Sub-Basin
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Annual
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Upper RRB
2020's 3 9 1 6 10 7 2
2050's 8 4 -1 14
2080's 11 15 12 18 16 5
Lower RRB -3 -2 13
Percentage Changes in annul precipitation

13. Shift in Seasonal Precipitation during 2080's
Overall increasing in all seasons except September to November
MAM and – significantly getting wetter in future
June to August
December to February
March to May
September to November

14. Murum – Bakun Cascade Bakun catchment – 14850 km2
Murum catchment – 2750 km2

15. Murum –Bakun Cascade –Calibration of Hydrological model
Aquarius Forecast to develop AWBM
Calibrated period (Jan2003-Dec 2007)
Calibrated model was run to simulate historical and future inflows
Hydrological Model R2
D (%) E
Bakun Dam
0.68
0.03

16. Murum –Bakun Cascade Historical River Inflows
Inflow at Bakun HEP
improvement in low flow
reduction in high flow
Inflow at Murum HEP

17. Inflow to Murum Dam 2020's 2050's 2080's 1976–2005 2020′s 2050′s
1976–2005
2020′s
2050′s
2080′s
inflow (m3/s)
Historical
259
RCP4.5
261
255
271
RCP8.5
267
289
2020's
2050's
2080's

18. Inflow to Bakun Dam 2020's 2050's 2080's 1976–2005 2020′s 2050′s
1976–2005
2020′s
2050′s
2080′s
inflow (m3/s)
Historical
1377
RCP4.5
1371
1358
1428
RCP8.5
1427
1423
1525
2020's
2050's
2080's

19. Murum Reservoir Operation

20. Bakun Reservoir Operation

21. Hydropower production under Future climate
Under RCP4.5 scenario, 2% increase during 2020's, no changes during 2050's and upto 5% increase in hydropower energy during 2080's
Under RCP8.5 scenario, upto 5%, 4% and 7% increase in hydropower energy from both plants during 2020's, 2050's and 2080's.
RCP4.5
RCP8.5

22. Thank You www.sarawakenergy.com.my
This work is the part of PhD Research conducted by Mubasher Hussain (Senior Hydrologist)

23. EVALUATION OF CMIP5 GCMs
CMIP5 Model R
NSD
RMSE
MAE
Rank (out of 4)
R > 0.4
0.7 > NSD > 1.3
RMSE < 135
MAE < 70
ACCESS1.0
0.45
1.24
116 43 4
ACCESS1.3
0.41
1.29
133 61
BCC-CSM1.1
0.07
1.79
184 41 1
BCC-CSM1.1m
0.25
1.12
188
147
BNU-ESM
0.08
0.85
142 86
CanESM2
0.29
0.73
173
145
CSIRO-MK3.6.0
0.14
1.78
175 34 2
GFDL-CM3
0.21
1.56
167 74
GFDL-ESM2G
0.16
1.74
168 14
GFDL-ESM2M
0.54
1.27
127 67
HadGem2-AO
0.36
1.48
140 69
HadGem2-ES
0.20
0.79
155
INMCM4
-0.01
0.81
156
105
IPSL-CM5A-MR
0.02
1.92
196 33
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
0.46
120
MIROC5
0.98
152 84
MPI-ESM-LR
-0.26
1.09
181
102
MPI-ESM-MR
-0.18
1.26
190
107
MRI-CGCM3
0.19
1.64
164 47
NorESM1-M
0.30
1.20
158