1. Provincial Research Ecologist
Application of BEC in Climate Change Adaptation:
Tree Species Selection
Will MacKenzie.
Provincial Research Ecologist
January, 2017

2. Outline Current Tree Species Selection Guidance
Proposed Climate Change Tree Species Selection Tool (TTST)

3. Tree species suitability at Climate and Site scales
Climate has an overarching effect on vegetation
Site condition within a climatic area also profoundly effects vegetation.
BEC is the tool for linking these two levels of control together.
BEC is critical for successful tree species suitability guidance.

4. Site/Tree Sp. variability within a BGC based on topography, soils, other factors

5. Site variation reflected in vegetation including tree species
Site relationships modelled in the edatopic grid

6. Tree Species Suitability Assessment
By Ecologists and Silviculturalists
Assess the following 3 key elements for each species in each site series:
Feasibility – ecological suitability
Reliability –forest health constraints
Productivity – growth potential (saw log focus)

7. Suitability Categories
Primary – ecologically acceptable with a high rating for F, R, and P - managed as a major component of the stand
Secondary – ecologically acceptable but rank lower for one or more of F, R and P – managed as either a major or minor component of the stand
Tertiary – ecologically acceptable – usually only suitable as a minor component of the stand

8. Tree species suitability reference guide (ICHmw2)

9. Species suitability varies by site condition within a BGC
ICHmw2 species suitability by site series
Driest
Mesic
Wettest
 Site Series
102
103
104
101
110
111
112
113
114 Py 3 Pl 1 Fd 2 Lw Pw Cw Hw Sx Bl

10. Species distribution modelling needs to be assessed by site (BEC)
Much work to down scale to site
Does not address uncertainty about future climates?
Predicted Lw distribution 2030 (consensus model)

11. Leverage Current Tree Species Suitability for Future BEC
Existing species suitability by BEC site series
Building new static tables for climate change not a good solution given future uncertainty and changing knowledge
Propose to leverage existing reference guide knowledge by linking current BEC to climate change projected BEC
If a future climate looks like a climate we know – we already know what to recommend

12. Future climate forecasting
Its not fortune-telling! |
But modelling of complex systems contains uncertainty

13. Multiple Plausible Climate Futures
In ClimateWNA:
15 Global Circulation Models
Different assumptions and modelling principles
2X Carbon Emission Scenarios
Uncertain social choices on fossil carbon
=30 (+1) plausible future climates.

14. MAT change by GCM model (2055)

15. MAP % change by GCM model (2055)

16. Is it too complicated?
Currently, for any future time period we have access to 31 climate model/scenario combinations in ClimateWNA
Too much info! Need to reduce the problem.
Converting climates to bioclimate units (BGCs) reduces the complexity.
Both CBST and TSST do this.

17. How do we use the projected BGC futures?
One approach is to use model CONSENUS (majority vote). CURRENT CBST Approach
Another is LEAST REGRETS (management agreement over all possible futures). PROPOSED for TTST

18. Consensus Approach Applies the most commonly predicted BGC
Implies a single future climate
Apply management guidance based on the single majority vote future
Easily visualized in a map view

19. Least-regrets approach
Accepts the uncertainty of future condition (but within bounds)
Uses all predicted climates weighted by % model votes
Looks for prescriptions that succeed through all plausible futures
Diversity /risk assessment in management guidance
Cannot be easily displayed in a map/hard to visualize

20. “Least-Regrets” species selection
“The optimal strategy is the one that brings the least regret in the case that a decision is, in retrospect, wrong.”
Consensus model implies a certain single climate future and a single CC target
the reality is that there are multiple plausible future climates (uncertainty)
Maximum Regret is complete plantation failure

21. Analysis approach Step 1. Predict BGCs from all GCM
Step 2. Align current site series to future BGC site series
Step 3. Align the current species suitability with suitability in all future site series
Step 4. Calculate species suitability trajectory from current to all future site series
Step 5. Apply Least-Regrets decision to adjust species suitability accounting for future climates

22. BECFuturesTreeSpSelection database tool to explore suitability trajectories (now programmed in R-script)

23. Step 1. BGC futures
Predicted from 31 futures climate data for a single point using an accepted RandomForest model of BGCs
Calculate the ratio of model votes for each BGC

24. Step 2. Align equivalent site sites in future BGCs
Relative site condition is stable in climate change

25. Step 3. Align reference guide spp suitability
Reference guide species suitability by future site series
Probability of site series
(BGC % x Edatopic ratio)
Future suitability converted to trajectory category
O=Stable
I=Improving
D=Declining
X=unsuited
A=Added

26. Summarize Species Suitability Trajectories

27. Convert trajectory weighting into application using a least regrets risk analysis
Balance risk based on certainty and consequence.
Retain or emphasize species with widespread stable or improved suitability
Down weight/remove species with unsuited or declining suitability in many future models
Consider adding or trialing species suitable in most future conditions that are not currently suitable (apply species distribution modelling to assist)
Consider selectively planting species suitable only in some futures
***Stand and Landscape levels should both be given consideration

28. The TSST must embrace Continuous Improvement (Science, Tool, and Policy)
Climate change guidance uses many models (and models of models)
All models will be improved over time
ClimateBC surface/GCM models
Analysis of the climate data
Improved mapping of BGCs
Species suitability assessment
Tool needs to be allow update of models but consistent delivery of guidance.

29. Deliver TSST through a web map interface
Plan to deliver tree species selection through a publicly accessible web map tool
The NE WaterTool (NEWT) and Cariboo - Watertool are examples of the approach of consolidating lots of information to assist decision-makers
TSST possibly available by Fall of 2017.
Platform to integrate other silviculture information into decision making.

30. Further TSST development
Ecologists review and update:
information gaps on classificaiton and tree species suitability (BEC upgrades)
review of climate models and analysis
decisions to make (base time period, risk analysis)
Build TSST platform for operational application
Convert analysis into web tool environment

31. END