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Ohio and Ashtabula County Trends

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1 Ohio and Ashtabula County Trends
Grant Writing Basics October 30, 2002 Rosemary R. Gliem, Ph.D. Director, Extension Data Center

2 Ohio Metropolitan Areas
April 2000 Cleveland-Lorain- Elyria Toledo Youngstown- Warren Akron Canton- Massilon Mansfield Lima Steubenville- Weirton Columbus Wheeling Dayton- Springfield Parkersburg- Marietta Hamilton- Middletown Cincinnati Huntington-Ashland Source: Ohio Department of Development Prepared by: Extension Data Center

3 Ohio’s Appalachian Region
Ashtabula Lucas Williams Fulton Lake Geauga Ottawa Wood Trumbull Cuyahoga Henry Sandusky Erie Lorain Defiance Portage Huron Medina Summit Paulding Seneca Mahoning Putnam Hancock Wyandot Crawford Richland Ashland Wayne Stark VanWert Columbiana Allen Hardin Carroll Mercer Marion Holmes Auglaize Morrow Tuscarawas Knox Jefferson Logan Shelby Union Coshocton Harrison Delaware Darke Licking Champaign Guernsey Belmont Miami Muskingum Franklin Clark Madison Fairfield Noble Preble Perry Monroe Montgomery Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Ross Athens Hamilton Highland Vinton Clermont Pike Meigs Jackson Brown Adams Gallia Scioto Lawrence

4 Percent Rural, 1990 Ohio=25.9% Under 49.9% 50% to 74.9 75% and over
Ashtabula Lake Fulton Lucas Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Trumbull Wood Sandusky Erie Lorain Defiance Henry Portage Huron Summit Seneca Paulding Mahoning Medina Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Stark Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Wayne Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Mercer Holmes Auglaize Tusc. Jeff. Morrow Knox Logan Coshocton Harrison Shelby Union Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Noble Monroe Mont. Mad. Preble Fairfield Perry Greene Morgan Fayette Pickaway Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Highland Meigs Ohio=25.9% Cler. Pike Jackson Brown Adams Gallia Scioto Law. Under 49.9% 50% to 74.9 75% and over Source: Don Thomas, Department of Human and Community Resource Development and U.S. Bureau of the Census Prepared by Data Center, Department of Human and Community Resource Development

5 Percent Rural, 2000 Ohio = 22.7% Under 49.9% 50% to 74.9 75% and over
Ashtabula Lake Fulton Lucas Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Trumbull Wood Sandusky Erie Lorain Defiance Henry Portage Huron Summit Seneca Paulding Mahoning Medina Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Stark Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Wayne Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Mercer Holmes Auglaize Tusc. Jeff. Morrow Knox Logan Coshocton Harrison Shelby Union Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Noble Monroe Mont. Mad. Preble Fairfield Perry Greene Morgan Fayette Picaway Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Highland Meigs Ohio = 22.7% Cler. Pike Jackson Brown Adams Gallia Scioto Law. Under 49.9% 50% to 74.9 75% and over Source: U. S. Census Bureau

6 Percent Change in Total Population 1990 - 2000
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Lorain Trumbull Sandusky Defiance Wood Henry Portage Seneca Huron Summit Paulding Medina Mahoning Hancock Putnam Ash. Wayne Stark Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Crawford Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Auglaize Jeff. Mercer Morrow Tusc. Knox Harrison Logan Coshoc. Union Shelby Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Mont. Fairfield Perry Preble Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Highlalnd Meigs Cler. Pike Ohio = 4.7% Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. Declined Gained up to 10% Source: Ohio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research Prepared by: Data Center, Department of Human and Community Resource Development, Ohio State University Gained more than 10%

7 Projected Change in Total Population
Ashtabula Lake Fulton Lucas Ottawa Williams Geauga Cuyahoga Defiance Wood Sandusky Erie Lorain Trumbull Portage Henry Paulding Huron Summit Seneca Putnam Medina Mahoning Hancock Crawford Ash. Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Mercer Auglaize Morrow Tusc. Jeff. Logan Delaware Knox Coshocton Shelby Union Harrison Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Muskingum Franklin Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Preble Mont. Fairfield Perry Greene Morgan Fayette Pickaway Hocking Washington Clinton Butler Warren Ross Athens Vinton Hamilton Highland Pike Meigs Cler. Jackson Ohio=11.2% Adams Brown Scioto Gallia Law. Will Decline 1.0% % 11.0% % Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, ODOD Prepared by Data Center, Department of Human and Community Resource Development 21.0% %

8 Percent of Population Age 65 or Older
by County, 2000 Lake Ashtabula Fulton Lucas Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Trumbull Defiance Sandusky Erie Lorain Henry Wood Portage Summit Paulding Seneca Huron Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Crawford Ash. Wayne Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Stark Rich. Allen Hardin Marion Holmes Carroll Mercer Auglaize Jeff. Morrow Tusc. Knox Logan Coshocton Union Delaware Harrison Shelby Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Noble Monroe Mont. Mad. Perry Fairfield Preble Morgan Greene Fayette Pickaway Hocking Washington Butler Warren Clinton Ross Athens Vinton Hamilton Highland Pike Meigs Jackson Cler. Ohio = 13.3% U. S. = 12.4% Brown Scioto Adams Gallia Law. 5% to 9.9% 10% to 14.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, ODOD 15% or More

9 Ohio’s Net Migration 1988 - 1999 Ohio = -152,803 Net Out-Migration
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Sandusky Erie Lorain Defiance Henry Wood Portage Trumbull Huron Summit Paulding Seneca Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Richland Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Jeff. Mercer Auglaize Morrow Knox Tuscarawas Logan Coshocton Union Delaware Harrison Shelby Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Muskingum Clark Franklin Madison Noble Monroe Mont. Fairfield Preble Perry Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Hocking Washington Butler Warren Clinton Ross Athens Vinton Hamilton Highland Pike Meigs Cler. Jackson Ohio = -152,803 Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. Net Out-Migration Net In-Migration up to 4,000 Source: Ohio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research Net-In-Migration of +4,000

10 Ohio’s Net Migration 1988 - 2001 Ohio = - 203,414 Net Out-Migration
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Sandusky Erie Lorain Defiance Henry Wood Portage Trumbull Huron Summit Paulding Seneca Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Richland Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Jeff. Mercer Auglaize Morrow Knox Tuscarawas Logan Coshocton Union Delaware Harrison Shelby Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Muskingum Clark Franklin Madison Noble Monroe Mont. Fairfield Preble Perry Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Hocking Washington Butler Warren Clinton Ross Athens Vinton Hamilton Highland Pike Meigs Cler. Jackson Ohio = - 203,414 Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. Net Out-Migration Net In-Migration up to 4,000 Source: Ohio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research Net-In-Migration of +4,000

11 Characteristics of Movers – National Level
20 – 29 year olds have highest moving rates Hispanics and Asians had highest moving rate followed by African Americans; White non-Hispanics had lowest Bachelor degree holders moved farther away than high school diploma holders Single and divorced people more likely to move than married people – age Long distance moves – work-related;short distance moves – housing Source: Current Population Reports – March 1999 – March 2000

12 Net Migration of Surrounding States, 2001
Michigan ,422 Indiana ,522 Kentucky ,378 West Virginia ,853 Pennsylvania ,640 Ohio ,578

13 Fastest Growing States, 1995 - 2025

14 Personal Income Per Capita (Dollars), 1999
Ashtabula Lake Fulton Lucas Ottawa Williams Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Lorain Trumbull Sandusky Defiance Wood Henry Portage Summit Seneca Huron Paulding Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Wayne Stark Columbiana Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Mercer Auglaize Jeff. Morrow Tusc. Knox Logan Coshocton Harrison Shelby Union Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Preble Mont. Fairfield Perry Monroe Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Cler. Pike Ohio=$27,171 Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. $14,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $25,999 $26,000 to $35,100 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS Prepared by Data Center, Department of Human and Community Resource Development

15 Personal Income Per Capita (Dollars), 2000
Ashtabula Lake Fulton Lucas Ottawa Williams Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Lorain Trumbull Sandusky Defiance Wood Henry Portage Summit Seneca Huron Paulding Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Wayne Stark Columbiana Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Mercer Auglaize Jeff. Morrow Tusc. Knox Logan Coshocton Harrison Shelby Union Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Preble Mont. Fairfield Perry Monroe Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Cler. Pike Ohio = $27,977 U. S. = $29,469 Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. $15,000 to $22,999 $23,000 to $27,999 $28,000 to $36,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS Prepared by Data Center, Department of Human and Community Resource Development

16 Median Household Income, 1999
Ashtabula Lake Fulton Lucas Ottawa Williams Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Lorain Trumbull Sandusky Defiance Wood Henry Portage Summit Seneca Huron Paulding Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Wayne Stark Columbiana Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Mercer Auglaize Jeff. Morrow Tusc. Knox Logan Coshocton Harrison Shelby Union Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Preble Mont. Fairfield Perry Monroe Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Cler. Pike Ohio = $40,956 U. S. = $41,994 Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. $22,200 - $33,999 $34,000 - $40,999 $41,000 - $56,700 Source: U. S. Census Bureau

17 1998 Median Household Income
Source: US Census Bureau

18 Transfer Payments as a Percent of
Total Personal Income, 1999 Lake Ashtabula Fulton Lucas Ottawa Williams Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Trumbull Defiance Wood Sandusky Lorain Henry Portage Huron Seneca Summit Paulding Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Crawford Ash. Columbiana Wyandot Van Wert Rich. Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Marion Carroll Auglaize Holmes Mercer Jeff. Morrow Tusc. Knox Logan Coshocton Union Delaware Harrison Shelby Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Preble Fairfield Perry Mont. Greene Morgan Pickaway Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Clinton Warren Ross Athens Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Pike Ohio=14.0% Cler. Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. 9% to 16.9% 17% to 19.9% Source: Ohio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research 20% or More

19 Transfer Payments as a Percent of
Total Personal Income, 2000 Lake Ashtabula Fulton Lucas Ottawa Williams Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Trumbull Defiance Wood Sandusky Lorain Henry Portage Huron Seneca Summit Paulding Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Crawford Ash. Columbiana Wyandot Van Wert Rich. Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Marion Carroll Auglaize Holmes Mercer Jeff. Morrow Tusc. Knox Logan Coshocton Union Delaware Harrison Shelby Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Preble Fairfield Perry Mont. Greene Morgan Pickaway Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Clinton Warren Ross Athens Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Pike Ohio=14.3% Cler. Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. 7% to 19.9% 20% to 24.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS Prepared by Data Center, Department of Human and Community Resource Development 25% or More

20 Estimated Percentage of People Under the Age of 18 in Poverty, 1998
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Trumbull Defiance Sandusky Lorain Henry Wood Portage Huron Summit Paulding Seneca Medina Mahoning Hancock Putnam Ash. Wyandot Crawford Columbiana Van Wert Rich. Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Carroll Holmes Auglaize Marion Morrow Jeff. Mercer Tusc. Knox Logan Harrison Coshoc. Delaware Shelby Union Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Preble Mont. Fairfield Perry Greene Morgan Fayette Pickaway Washington Hocking Clinton Butler Warren Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Pike Ohio = 16.4% U. S. = 18.9% Cler. Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. 7.3% % 13% % Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census 20% %

21 Poverty Rates for All Ages, 1998
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Trumbull Defiance Sandusky Lorain Henry Wood Portage Huron Summit Paulding Seneca Medina Mahoning Hancock Putnam Ash. Wyandot Crawford Columbiana Van Wert Rich. Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Carroll Holmes Auglaize Marion Morrow Jeff. Mercer Tusc. Knox Logan Harrison Coshoc. Delaware Shelby Union Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Preble Mont. Fairfield Perry Greene Morgan Fayette Pickaway Washington Hocking Clinton Butler Warren Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Pike Ohio = 10.7% U. S. = 12.7% Cler. Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. 14.0% to 20.0% 10.0% to 13.9% 4.2% to 9.9% Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census Prepared by: Data Center, Ohio State University

22 Estimated Percentage of Related Children Age 5 to 17 in Families in Poverty, 1998
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Trumbull Defiance Sandusky Lorain Henry Wood Portage Huron Summit Paulding Seneca Medina Mahoning Hancock Putnam Ash. Wyandot Crawford Columbiana Van Wert Rich. Wayne Stark Allen Hardin Carroll Holmes Auglaize Marion Morrow Jeff. Mercer Tusc. Knox Logan Harrison Coshoc. Delaware Shelby Union Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Preble Mont. Fairfield Perry Greene Morgan Fayette Pickaway Washington Hocking Clinton Butler Warren Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Meigs Highland Pike Ohio = 14.4% U. S. = 17.5% Cler. Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. 5.4% - 9.9% 10.0% to 15.9% Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census 16.0% %

23 Percent of Female Head of Household
with Children, 2000 Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Defiance Erie Lorain Trumbull Henry Wood Sandusky Summit Huron Portage Paulding Seneca Medina Mahoning Putnam Hancock Ash. Crawford Van Wert Wyandot Wayne Stark Columbiana Richland Allen Hardin Marion Carroll Mercer Auglaize Holmes Jeff. Morrow Tusc. Knox Logan Coshocton Harrison Union Delaware Shelby Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Muskingum Franklin Clark Noble Monroe Preble Mad. Fairfield Perry Mont. Greene Morgan Picaway Fayette Washington Hocking Warren Clinton Butler Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Highland Meigs Ohio=7.3% Cler. Pike Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. 11.0% % 9.0% % Source: Census Bureau, Prepared by Data Center, Department of Human and Community Resource Development 4.0% - 8.9%

24 Births to Teens 2000 (10–19 years of age) Ohio = 12% 15.0% - 20%
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Lorain Trumbull Sandusky Defiance Wood Henry Portage Seneca Huron Summit Paulding Medina Mahoning Hancock Putnam Ash. Wayne Stark Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Crawford Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Auglaize Jeff. Mercer Morrow Tusc. Knox Harrison Logan Coshoc. Union Shelby Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Mont. Fairfield Perry Preble Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Highlalnd Meigs Cler. Pike Ohio = 12% Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia Law. 15.0% - 20% 10.0% % Source: Ohio Department of Health 3.3% - 9.9%

25 Estimated Percentage by Race, 2000
Lake Ashtabula Lucas Fulton Williams Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Erie Lorain Trumbull Sandusky Defiance Wood Henry Portage Seneca Huron Summit Paulding Medina Mahoning Hancock Putnam Ash. Wayne Stark Columbiana Van Wert Wyandot Rich. Crawford Allen Hardin Carroll Marion Holmes Auglaize Jeff. Mercer Morrow Tusc. Knox Harrison Logan Coshoc. Union Shelby Delaware Darke Champaign Licking Guernsey Belmont Miami Franklin Muskingum Clark Mad. Noble Monroe Mont. Fairfield Perry Preble Greene Pickaway Morgan Fayette Washington Hocking Butler Warren Clinton Athens Ross Vinton Hamilton Highlalnd Meigs Cler. Pike Ohio=13.7% Jackson Brown Adams Scioto Gallia 20% to 32% Law. 10% to 19.9% 5.1% to 9.9% Source: U. S. Census Bureau Race = Black, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, And Some Other Race 0.6% to 5.0%

26 Ohio and Ashtabula County Summary
Metro. Area – part of the Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria area; should be a strength % Rural – 1990 Ash. was 47.2% in %; surrounding counties urban except Geauga % Change 1990 – 2000 – Ash. grew by 2.9%, OH 4.7%, Geauga 12%, Lake 5.6%, T. -1.2% % Projected growth 1990 – 2015 Ash. 13.5&, OH 11.2%, Geauga 23.3%, Lake 4.3%, T. 5.7% 65 and older – Ash. 14.7%, OH 13.3%

27 Ohio and Ashtabula County Summary
Poverty less than 18 – Ash. 20%, OH 16.4%, Lake 9.2%, G. 8.5%, T. 17.9% Poverty all ages – Ash. 13.2%, OH 10.7%, Lake 5.7%, G. 5%, T. 11% Poverty family with related children – Ash. 17.7%, OH 14.4%, Lake 7.7%, G. 6.8%, T. 15.4% Migration – Ash. up to 4000; OH lost PIPC – Ash. $22,531, OH $27,977, Lake $30,108, G. $35,146 (highest), T. $25,582 Median Income – Ash. $35,607, Lake $48,763, G. $60,200, T. $38,298

28 Ohio and Ashtabula County Summary
Transfer Pay. – Ash. 20.9%, OH 14.3%, Lake 12.7%, G. 8.5%, T. 17.9% % FHH with children – Ash. 11%, OH 7.3%, Lake 8.4%, G. 5.4%, T 11.7% Teen Births - Ash. 14.4%, OH 12%, Lake 6.7%, G. 3.3%, T. 11.3%

29 Ashtabula Summary Metro Area – should be a strength Rural environment
Slow growth 1990 – 2000 but strong projected growth Poverty is a concern – all ages; Female HH with children Migration – positive number Lagging Income – PIPC and Median Dependent on transfer payments; tax base and economic growth Teen Births – too high; poverty

30 Components of Business Change
Ohio Starts , ,952 Deaths 22, ,949 Net , ,003 Ashtabula County Starts Deaths Net

31 Components of Business Change for Surrounding Counties
NET ONLY Lake Geauga Trumbull

32 Ashtabula Occupations and Industries
Production, Trans., Mat. Moving…27.7% Mgt., Professional …………………22.1% Sales and Office …………………..21.0% Manufacturing ………………………29.1% Educational, Health, Social ……….19.2% Retail Trade ………………………..11.3%

33 Household Type in Ohio 2000

34 Ohio’s GSP, July 2002

35 From Mfg. to Services and Trade

36 Ohio’s Economy, 1999

37 Spending as a Percentage of the FY 2000 – 01 State Budget

38 Ashtabula County Summary
Business Retention and Expansion – focus on the local economy first then attract new businesses GSP – shifting from industrial to services, knowledge, and technology 3rd Frontier for Ohio – innovation, entrepreneurship, fostering success, workforce, supporting strengths

39 Strategies for Ashtabula
Technology Expand markets for local products Increase number of locally owned businesses Enhance opportunities for higher wage jobs Tourism source: national center for small communities, June 2002 Economic Renewal Financial resources Technical assistance Improved housing Improved social services source: smart growth at the frontier, 2002

40 Possible Plan for Ashtabula County
Promote value-added ag. and high end products/tourism Create a business assistance program for technical assistance, financial restructuring services, and loans Reach out regionally to the Cleveland/Akron areas Support local businesses and entrepreneurs first A critical mass of concerned citizens who form into a nonprofit organization which fosters the public-private collaboration that can change the future

41 Extension Data Center

42 Thank You


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