1. Welcome to an Introduction to Risk Management
e-learning
Risk of Harm
This session is to introduce certain terms and
concepts around risk and risk management. It is
best followed up with further risk training
as well as OASys training.
We will cover :-
Risk Definitions
Actuarial Risk Assessment
Clinical Risk Assessment
Risk of Re-offending
Risk of Harm
Assessing Risk
Managing Risk
Working with Risk
When you have read each page, please click
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Introduction
Risk of Re-offending

2. Risk Definitions Risk of Harm Risk of Re-offending
When we talk of risk it is important to specify
whether we mean risk of harm (to self or
others) or risk or re-offending.
Risk of Re-offending covers the likelihood that
someone will go on to commit further offences.
This is difficult to quantify as offences can go
unreported or may not be prosecuted as an
offence. Figures will record the re-conviction
rates as statistical evidence is available for this.
Risk Definitions
Risk of Re-offending
Risk of Harm covers the likelihood and the
impact that someone’s behaviour will have on
either themselves, in considering self harm, or
on others, when we consider the risk of harm
posed to others who the assessed individual
comes into contact with.

3. Risk Definitions Risk of Harm Risk of Re-offending Actuarial Clinical
Within risk assessment there are two methods
by which we can assess risk, a combination of
both gives the most accurate picture.
Risk of Harm
Actuarial
Clinical
Predicting from research and knowledge of groups based on static factors
OGRS – a tool for assessing Actuarial Risk Factors. The tool is quite accurate but limited in that it offers a percentage score for how many people with similar circumstances have gone on to re-offend.
Considers the dynamic factors that lead to offending. It is more person-centric than statistical/figure based.
Clinical assessments consider the situation/environment as well as the internal attitudes or beliefs of an individual.
Risk Definitions
Risk of Re-offending

4. Re-Offending Risk of Harm Risk of Re-offending
Risk of re-offending is concerned with the probability of this person re-offending within a particular time scale. The Interventions that we offer are designed to reduce the risk of re-offending.
OGRS and OASys produce scores that reflect the risk of further offending within 2 years.
Re-Offending
Risk of Re-offending
Statistical analysis does not suggest the nature or seriousness of the offences likely to be committed. This is where clinical judgement comes in, to discern the offences that are likely to be committed, when, where and against who.

5. Risk of Harm Risk of Harm Risk of Re-offending
Risk of Harm is concerned with the potential that someone has to cause physical or psychological distress to others.
OASys is the tool within which we record the risk of harm posed by an individual. It is designed to capture the risk of serious harm.
Risk of Harm
Risk of Re-offending
Serious harm is defined as ‘An event which is life-threatening and/or traumatic, and from which recovery, whether physical or psychological, can be expected to be difficult or impossible.’

6. Risk of Harm
Assessing Risk

7. In considering the risk of harm that someone poses, we have to assess the potential injury that could be caused, the Seriousness, and the Imminence, how soon an act causing serious harm could take place.
Assessing Risk
What could happen, and when could it take place? In assessing risk we have to imagine the unimaginable, what is the worse case scenario and how likely is this to happen? In order to explore this we have to ask the unaskable, a good risk assessment is born out of a good interview with the person in question.
Remember that risk is dynamic, it is always changing and should therefore be continuously assessed.

8. Assessing Risk Imminence
How soon will this offender do something harmful…
…today , tomorrow or in the foreseeable future?
What would increase the imminence or likelihood of this happening? If circumstances change, are there protective factors in place that could fail?
The Imminence is the dividing line between whether someone is considered to be Very High, High, Medium or Low risk.
Imminence
Assessing Risk

9. Assessing Risk Seriousness
In outlining the harm that someone could cause, we are considering :
Type of offending/harm (sexual, violent, other)
Nature of offence/harm (specific detail; use of weapons; specific victim targeted etc)
Harm caused (to the Victim(s) or property)
Considering the above allows us to give a holistic view of the risk posed and what somebody might go on to do.
Assessing Risk

10. In assessing risk we have to deal with a lot of information that can come from a variety of sources. It is important to consider the following four principles:
Validity – Is the information valid, is it correct?
Reliability – How reliable is the source, is this fact or opinion?
Sufficiency – Do we have enough information to make a judgement?
Currency – Is the information up to date? When was the last interview with this person or how long ago was the last risk assessment?
Assessing Risk

11. Some of the main risk indicators that we should look out for are:-
Past behaviour and convictions
Motivation for and attitude towards offending
Access and proximity to victims (including grooming)
Preparedness to use weapons
Disinhibitors (alcohol and drugs)
Situational triggers
Conditions and circumstances
Assessing Risk
We should be asking ourselves, are these present now or could they become present should any situation or circumstance change. This will go on to inform the assessed level of risk.

12. There is no “No risk” category
The risk categories that we work to are defined
within OASys as:
Very High – The risk is Imminent and could happen
at any time. It is more likely to happen
than not.
High – The risk is Imminent and could happen
at any time.
Medium – There are identifiable factors that would
suggest that there is a risk of posing
serious harm, the risk is not imminent
but would increase with change of
specific circumstances.
Low – There are no current indicators of a risk
of serious harm.
There is no “No risk” category
Assessing Risk

13. Assessing Risk High likelihood/ High likelihood/ Low impact
We can explore the dynamic between seriousness/impact
and likelihood as the matrix below
High likelihood/
High impact
Eg: TWOC, burglary
Low likelihood/
Eg: mass murder, public
massacre
High likelihood/
Low impact
Eg: shoplifting, low
value property thefts
Low likelihood/
Eg: first time
opportunistic theft
Assessing Risk

14. Therefore, a combination of the Likelihood, the Impact
and the Imminence combine to give us an assessment of the risk posed. This then informs our Risk Management and Sentence Plans
The Sentence Plan – the focus is on internal, offender generated and managed, controls:
Reducing triggers & opportunities
avoidance
diversion
developing thinking
Delivered through active participation in interventions and programmes
Managing Risk

15. Therefore, a combination of the Likelihood, the Impact
and the Imminence combine to give us an assessment of the risk posed. This then informs our Risk Management and Sentence Plans
Risk Management Plans – the focus is on external controls:
Reducing triggers & opportunities
restrictive conditions
building protective factors
Delivered through external limits & controls
includes details of interventions and programme provision.
Managing Risk

16. A risk management plan will outline the risks that are in place and how we are aiming to manage those risks. It will include :
Other agencies involved
Who is involved and what are they doing?
Existing support/controls
What is in place now to manage the risks?
Added measures for specific risk
What else is needed to reduce the risks posed?
Who will undertake the actions and by when
Who is responsible for the above steps?
Additional conditions/requirements to manage specific risks
Are there requirements or licence conditions to
manage the risk?
Level of contact
How often are you seeing this person and why?
Contingency Measures
If the risks are deemed to increase what should be
done?
Managing Risk

17. What do we need to watch out for in assessing and managing risk?
Errors in assessment can lead to:
False positives (over estimation of risk) or
False negatives (when we fail to recognise risks that do exist)
Mistakes can arise from a number of causes:-
Missing or incomplete information
Using data for limited populations
Vague, not reliable, or, outdated information
Prejudice or strong feelings over certain offences
Subjective views
Assumptions and optimism
Rushed assessments or interviews
Managing Risk

18. What do we need to watch out for in assessing and managing risk?
It is important to always be…
Open to new info and assimilating it ( so what does this mean ?)
Checking out our assumptions
Aware of bias and errors
Maintaining a “healthy scepticism”
Open to new information
Review & reassess if risk increases or gives cause for concern
Take the time to reflect
Discuss cases and assessments with colleagues or managers
Managing Risk

19. Making Decisions Defensible Decisions
One very important area of our work is the decisions that we make. At times things will go wrong despite the work that we do. When we review the steps that we have taken we need to be sure that we can explain the decisions that we have made and that we can defend our choices in managing a case.
A decision is defensible if, in spite of a negative outcome it can be demonstrated that all reasonable steps had been taken in assessing and managing the risks involved and, given the information to hand at the time, the decision was justifiable.
Making Decisions

20. Making Decisions Defensible Decisions
Ensure decisions are grounded in the evidence.
Use reliable risk assessment tools.
Collect, verify and thoroughly evaluate information.
Record and account for your decision making.
Communicate with relevant others, seek information you do not have.
Stay within agency policies and procedures
Match risk management interventions to risk factors.
Maintain contact with the offender at a level commensurate with the level of risk of harm.
Respond to escalating risk, deteriorating behaviour, and non-compliance.
Take all reasonable steps
Making Decisions

21. Making Decisions What are reasonable steps?
Have we done everything in our power that could reasonably be expected to manage the risk posed to others?
This includes being vigilant and pro-active in recognising risk areas and ensuring that safeguards are in place to manage those risks.
If something went wrong, could we say that we tried to stop it from happening?
Each case will be different but this is where it is important to reflect on our own practice to make sure that we are doing all we can.
Making Decisions

22. Assessing a level of risk
Case Scenario
Consider the following 2 scenarios. What level of risk would you consider them to pose and, what work would you suggest to seek to reduce/manage the risk?

23. Assessing a level of risk
Read the scenario below and consider what level of risk
You would assess this person as posing :-
Steve is a chronic drug user who has numerous convictions for shoplifting. He has recently been convicted of an assault in which he has punched a member of staff who tried to restrain him. He has no previous violent convictions. He tells you that he feels bad for becoming violent but that he felt threatened by the member of staff. He is still using drugs and works occasionally on a cash in hand basis.
Case Scenario

24. Assessing a level of risk
Read the scenario below and consider what level of risk
You would assess this person as posing :-
Steve is a chronic drug user who has numerous convictions for shoplifting. He has recently been convicted of an assault in which he has punched a member of staff who tried to restrain him. He has no previous violent convictions. He tells you that he feels bad for becoming violent but that he felt threatened by the member of staff. He is still using drugs and works occasionally on a cash in hand basis.
Case Scenario
Risk of Harm:
Risk of Re-offending:

25. Assessing a level of risk
What objectives would you expect to set for Steve to reduce the risks assessed?
Case Scenario

26. Assessing a level of risk
Read the scenario below and consider what level of risk
You would assess this person as posing :-
Carl has recently separated from his partner Nicola. Their relationship was violent throughout and Carl is before the Court for breach of a Non Molestation Order. He tells you that he does not accept that the relationship is over and that he believes that Nicola will ‘have him back’. Recently his alcohol use has increased to daily and there are police reports suggesting that he is spending his time in the vicinity of Nicola’s house.
Case Scenario
Risk of Harm:
Risk of Re-offending:

27. Assessing a level of risk
What objectives would you expect to set for Carl to reduce the risks assessed?
Case Scenario

28. Working with Risk In working with risk it is important to remember
to look after ourselves and reflect on not only our
practice, but the impact that this work can have on
us.
Use your colleagues, a risk assessment will benefit from the views of others
Use your line manager for support in discussing cases and assessments
Think through any risks posed to yourself, either risk of harm or emotional risks of the work we do
Accept that sometimes things can go wrong, risk
is not an exact science, remember that the
decisions that we make should be defensible but
ultimately, people are responsible for the choices
they make
Finally, use the guidance available, such as the Managing Risk policy.
Working with Risk

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