1. U.S. Industrial Outlook EO-162
Presented by:
Dan Meckstroth, Ph.D.
Vice President and Chief Economist

2. U.S. Industrial Outlook Annual Percent Change 2015 2016 2017 2018
Table 1 – Forecast for Manufacturing Production
Annual Percent Change
2015
2016
2017
2018
Manufacturing
0.8
0.4
2.5
2.8
Computer and electronic products
2.2
4.1
4.5
Non-high-tech manufacturing
0.2
1.5
Source(s): MAPI Foundation

3. U.S. Industrial Outlook Annual Percent Change 2015 2016 2017 2018
Table 2 – Forecasts for Manufacturing and Related Production
Annual Percent Change
2015
2016
2017
2018
Housing starts 11 5 17 9
Motor vehicles and parts 6 4 -2 -1
Household appliance 3 2
Pharmaceutical and medicine 1
Iron and steel products
-12 -3
Alumina and aluminum production and processing -4
Fabricated metal products
Basic chemicals
Paper
Construction machinery -8
Mining and oil and gas field machinery
-13
-18 10
Industrial machinery
Source(s): MAPI Foundation

4. U.S. Industrial Outlook Annual Percent Change 2015 2016 2017 2018
Table 2 – Forecasts for Manufacturing and Related Production (continued)
Annual Percent Change
2015
2016
2017
2018
Ventilation, heating, air conditioning, and commercial refrigeration equipment 2 -4 6 4
Metalworking machinery -3 -5
Engine, turbine, and power transmission equipment 1
-10
Communications equipment 3
Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments
Electric lighting equipment
Electrical equipment -2
Medical equipment and supplies -1
Aerospace products and parts
Private nonresidential construction 9
Public works construction
Source(s): MAPI Foundation

5. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 1 – Industrial Sector by Phase of Cycle, April 2016
Source(s): MAPI Foundation

6. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 2a – Housing Starts F=Forecast
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

7. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 2b – Housing Starts
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

8. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 3a – Motor Vehicles and Parts Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

9. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 3b – Motor Vehicles and Parts Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

10. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 4a – Household Appliance Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

11. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 4b – Household Appliance Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

12. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 5a – Pharmaceutical and Medicine Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

13. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 5b – Pharmaceutical and Medicine Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

14. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 6a – Iron and Steel Products Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

15. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 6b – Iron and Steel Products Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

16. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 7a – Alumina and Aluminum Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

17. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 7b – Alumina and Aluminum Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

18. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 8a – Fabricated Metal Products Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

19. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 8b – Fabricated Metal Products Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

20. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 9a – Basic Chemicals Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

21. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 9b – Basic Chemicals Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

22. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 10a – Paper Production F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

23. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 10b – Paper Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

24. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 11a – Construction Machinery Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

25. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 11b – Construction Machinery Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

26. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 12a – Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

27. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 12b – Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

28. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 13a – Industrial Machinery Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

29. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 13b – Industrial Machinery Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

30. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 14a – Ventilation, Heating, Air Conditioning, and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

31. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 14b – Ventilation, Heating, Air Conditioning, and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

32. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 15a – Metalworking Machinery Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

33. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 15b – Metalworking Machinery Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

34. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 16a – Engine, Turbine, and Power Transmission Equipment Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

35. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 16b – Engine, Turbine, and Power Transmission Equipment Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

36. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 17a – Material Handling Equipment New Orders
F=Forecast
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

37. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 17b – Material Handling Equipment New Orders
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

38. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 18a – Electronic Computer Equipment Shipments
F=Forecast
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

39. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 18b – Electronic Computer Equipment Shipments
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

40. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 19a – Communications Equipment Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

41. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 19b – Communications Equipment Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

42. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 20a – Semiconductor Global Billings
F=Forecast
Source(s): Semiconductor Industry Association and MAPI Foundation

43. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 20b – Semiconductor Global Billings
Source(s): Semiconductor Industry Association and MAPI Foundation

44. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 21a – Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

45. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 21b – Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

46. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 22a – Electric Lighting Equipment Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

47. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 22b – Electric Lighting Equipment Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

48. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 23a – Electrical Equipment Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

49. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 23b – Electrical Equipment Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

50. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 24a – Medical Equipment and Supplies Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

51. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 24b – Medical Equipment and Supplies Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

52. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 25a – Aerospace Products and Parts Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

53. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 25b – Aerospace Products and Parts Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

54. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 26a – Oil and Gas Well Drilling Production
F=Forecast
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

55. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 26b – Oil and Gas Well Drilling Production
Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI Foundation

56. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 27a – Private Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place
F=Forecast
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

57. U.S. Industrial Outlook
Figure 27b – Private Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

58. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 28a – Public Construction Put-in-Place
F=Forecast
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation

59. U.S. Industrial Outlook Figure 28b – Public Construction Put-in-Place
Source(s): U.S. Bureau of the Census and MAPI Foundation