1. Impact of Data Releases
Released: 12:00 GMT, 13th September, 2016
Next release: 12:00 GMT, 19th October, 2016
China economic growth rate accelerating slightly
The China NCI™ is at for October, compared to for September, and is forecast at for November.
The level of the NCI™ series has been revised downward to account for the negative balance of surprises in the economic data released during the past month, particularly Industrial Production for September.
NCI™ Release Dates
reference period
13/09/2016
19/10/2016
Sep-16
60.41
(A)
58.41
(U)
Oct-16
62.72
(F)
59.16
Nov-16 --
60.19
Notes: (A), ACTUAL, denotes the estimate of economic activity for the current month; (F), FORECAST, the forecast for next month; (U) UPDATED, denotes updates reflecting data released since the last NCI publication date. Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd
Impact of Data Releases
Release
Reference
Model
China NCITM
Date
Name
Period
Unit
Value*
Expectation
September
October
19/10/2016
Newly Started Construction
Sep-16
YoY %
6.83
-6.21
-0.07
-0.16
Industrial Production
6.10
6.92
-1.61
-2.91
Electricity Production
8.03
6.32
0.11
0.33
13/10/2016
Imports
-1.90
-0.74
-0.06
-0.13
Exports
-10.00
-1.11
-0.43
-0.91
08/10/2016
HSBC/Markit PMI: Services
Index
52.01
52.34
-0.10
-0.24
01/10/2016
Official PMI: Nonmanufacturing
53.70
53.84
-0.08
-0.17
Official PMI: Manufacturing
50.40
50.15
0.09
0.18
30/09/2016
HSBC/Markit PMI: Manufacturing
50.09
49.73
0.26
0.58
22/09/2016
Freight Traffic
Aug-16
3.16
3.88
-0.05
-1.94
-3.51
Note: Released values are expressed in Model Units
Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd and Official Data Sources