1. Will Developing Countries Replace U.S Agriculture?

2. Corn

3. Soybeans

4. HRS Wheat

5. HRW Wheat
2018 Harvest Bid
$ $0.90 = $4.00

6. 16-Jun-18
World Wheat Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Year
(Billion Bushels)
2010
24.0
24.1
7.3
2011
25.6
7.2
2012
24.2
25.0
6.5
2013
26.3
2014
26.8
25.9
8.0
2015
27.0
26.2
8.9
2016
27.7
27.1
9.4
2017
27.4
9.7
7-YR Avg.
25.7
7.7
-100m
even
-800m
+700m
+900m
+800m
+600m
+300m
+2.4 b

7. World Harvested Acres

8. World Harvested Acres, Production and Yield
(million acres)
Yield
Bu/Ac
Production
Billion Bu.

9. U.S. Percentage of World Production

10. Wheat Production: Select Countries
Russia
U.S.
Australia
Ukraine
Argentina

11. 1987/88 Exports

12. 2007/08 Exports

13. 2017/18 Exports

14. Exports for Select Countries

15. Exports for Select Countries

16. Exports for Select Countries
FSU-12
2.0 bb
World Exports Increase
3.7 to 6.6 b.bu. (2.9 bb)
Russia
1.2 bb
EU-28
0.5 bb

17. KC Monthly Price Chart

18. 16-Jun-18
U.S. Wheat Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
U. S. Price
Year
Okla. Price
(Billion Bushels)
HRW
2010
2.21
2.42
.862
$5.70
2011
2.00
2.23
.743
$7.24
2012
2.25
2.41
.718
$7.77
2013
2.14
2.43
.590
$6.87
2014
2.03
2.02
.752
$5.99
2015
2.06
1.95
.976
$4.89
2016
2.31
2.22
1.180
$3.90
2017
1.74
0.933
$4.60
7-YR Avg.
2.24
.829
$6.05
HRW
.386
$5.06
.317
$7.05
1.00
.343
$7.45
.747
.237
$6.99
.739
.294
$6.34
.830
.446
$4.77
1.08
.555
$3.45
.758
.448
$3.80
.885
344
$5.87

19. 16-Jun-18
World Wheat Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Year
Okla. Price
(Billion Bushels)
2010
24.0
24.1
7.3
2011
25.6
7.2
2012
24.2
25.0
6.5
2013
26.3
2014
26.8
25.9
8.0
2015
27.0
26.2
8.9
2016
27.7
27.1
9.4
2017
27.2
9.7
7-YR Avg.
25.7
7.7
$5.06
$7.05
$7.45
$6.99
$6.34
$4.77
$3.45
$3.60

20. 16-Jun-18
World Wheat Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Year
Okla. Price
(Billion Bushels)
2011
25.6
7.2
2012
24.2
25.0
6.5
2013
26.3
2014
26.8
25.9
8.0
2015
27.0
26.2
8.9
2016
27.7
27.1
9.4
2017
27.4*
9.7*
2018
26.0*
27.0*
8.7*
7-YR Avg.
25.7
7.7
* Projected
$7.05
$7.45
$6.99
$6.34
$4.77
$3.45
$3.60*
$5.50*

21. KC HRW Wheat Protein (9/22/17)
Basis (¢)
Ordinary -2
11.00% 70
11.20% 85
11.40%
113
11.60%
123
11.80%
128
12.00%
133
12.50%
160

22. 12.5% Protein Wheat Russia (FOB) $5.20 + $0.70 = $5.90 Houston
HRW KC Mkt $ $1.60 = $6.00 Kansas City
HRS $5.85 North Dakota

23. Price Outlook December 2017 June 2018 $3.80
Market: KC July ‘18 $ $1.00  $4.00
11.5 protein/TW $ $0.50  $4.50