1. Transatlantic Relations and the Obama Presidency
New Opportunities, New Dangers
Michael Baun
Valdosta State University

2. What a difference a President makes!

3. A favorable climate Obama shares European values and approach
pro-US leadership in key European countries
strong desire on both sides of Atlantic for improved US-Europe relations
Obama popularity in Europe

4. Common interests on key issues
Iraq
Middle East (Israel-Palestine)
Iran
Afghanistan-Pakistan (“Afpak”)
China
Russia
climate change
global financial and economic crisis

5. Iraq
US – plan for withdrawal (combat forces by August 2010; all US forces by end of 2011); ensure security; comprehensive regional agreement?
Europe – support for economic and political reconstruction

6. Middle East
US – diplomatic re-engagement; pressure on Israel; negotiations with Syria and Iran
Europe – support for Palestinians; incentives for Israel; ENP cooperation with Syria and Lebanon (EU or NATO border monitoring forces?)

7. Iran
US – direct negotiations with Iran; offer more incentives (WTO membership, investment, normalized diplomatic relations)
Europe – more incentives, but also be willing to apply tougher sanctions

8. “Afpak”
US – more troops; counter-insurgency operations and improved security; negotiate with Taliban; more economic and military aid for Pakistan
Europe – more NATO troops? support for economic and civilian reconstruction; support for Pakistan

9. China Trilateral cooperation on: energy climate change
trade and economic crisis
reforming global governance institutions
integrating China into global system as “responsible stakeholder”

10. Russia
US – “grand bargain” with Russia on missile defense, NATO enlargement, arms control; in return for cooperation on Iran, Afghanistan, drug trade?
Europe – EU-Russia partnership agreement
new security agreement for Europe?

11. Climate change renewed US commitment, engagement
US-European leadership to reach agreement on post-Kyoto treaty and bring emerging economies (China, India) on board

12. Global economic crisis
key role for US-EU cooperation as world’s largest economic powers
no prospects of successful crisis response and reform of global economic governance without US-EU cooperation

13. Conditions for successful US-Europe cooperation
US must:
match words with action
promote European unity
consult, listen, not just demand

14. Conditions for successful US-Europe cooperation
Europe must:
be more united
be more pro-active

15. Some useful steps
institutionalize US-EU governmental relations, at all levels
permanent transatlantic working groups:
to study issues like conflict prevention, post-conflict stabilization, nation-building, etc.
more people-to-people contacts and exchanges: academic, professional, etc.

16. New dangers for transatlantic relations?
disagreements over specific issues
frustrated expectations

17. New dangers (cont.) Current global developments:
global economic crisis leads to protectionism, economic nationalism
new multipolarity (China’s rise)
- US focus on China and Asia
- Europe balance-of-power temptations

18. A window of opportunity Will we use it?