1. Measuring Public Opinion

2. Types of Public
Elites
Those with disproportionate amount of political resources
Raise issues and help set national agenda
Influence the resolution of issues
Attentive: those with an active interest in govt. and politics
Mass: those with little interest in govt. and politics

3. Types of opinions Stable: change very little (death penalty)
Fluid: change frequently (presidential popularity)
Latent: dormant but may be popular again (military draft)
Salient: have some personal importance to individuals (Brady Bill and gun control)
Consensus: shared by 75% of the people or more (having a balanced budget)
Polarized: shared by less than 75% (gun control, ERA)

4. Measurement of public opinion
By elections: deceiving: does not tell us WHY people voted as they did
By straw (informal) polls: inaccuracies
By scientific polls
opinion-polls-jason-robert-jaffe#review

5. The cell phone poll activity
Class results - questions:
Do you think these results are representative of your entire grade?
Of the entire school?
Of people in your age group?
Why/why not?

6. Analyzing the poll - activity
“Many in the U.S. want texting at the wheel to be illegal” Article
Why do you think that on the question of banning texting while driving, there was “an unusual level of agreement” – 97 percent?
Which, if any, of the poll findings surprised you, and why?
Why do you think the percentage of adult Americans who think using hand-held cellphones while driving went up from 69 percent in 2001 to 80 percent in 2009?
According to the article, 829 adults were surveyed. How might the results differ if teenagers were polled as well? Should teens have been included? Why or why not?
The poll “has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.” What does this mean to you?

7. Construction of Polls
Define your “universe”: population to be measured (subject etc)
Selection of sampling
How will you gather your data?
How will you write your question to avoid bias?

8. Scientific Polls
Random sampling: each person has an equal chance to be selected (typically through “shuffling” of census tracts)
National polls typically require respondents (to represent millions of people!)
Sampling error
Difference between the results of random samples taken at the same time
Expressed in +/- terms
Can reduce sampling error by adding more respondents

9. Analyzing the poll - activity
With a partner you will need the following:
“How the Poll was Conducted” reading
Entire Poll results worksheet
New York Times polling standards description
Directions:
Step One: With your partner, annotate all information with our partner (think of methodology, sample sizes, demographics, margin of error, etc)
Step Two: With another set of partners focus on your assigned aspect of polling, be ready to report what your group discovered!

10. Bell Ringer - 2a Analyzing the poll - activity
Get with your partner from last class!
Wait for me to tell you which other pair you will be working with
Be ready to present!
Pollsters
Sample Size
Sample Randomization
Sampling Error
Demographics
Methodology
Question Wording

11. Analyzing the poll - discussion
How would you conduct this poll on our school population?
What adjustments would you need to make to the methodology used by New York Times and CBS news?
How could you ensure that the poll was scientifically sound and adequately represented the views of the whole school?
Think of:
Size of school population
Sample size
Margin of error
Methodology
Sub-population (age/grade level)
What would the actual purpose of this poll be?

12. Uses of Polls Informing the
Public
Candidates
Office-holders
Making election night projections through the use of exit polls
Exit polls: polls based on interviews conducted on Election Day with randomly selected voters

13. Abuses of Polls
“Horse Race” mentality emphasized during campaigns at expense of issues
Pandering to whims of public by candidates and office-holders
Early projections from exit polls may discourage voter turnout, especially in the West

14. Public awareness and interest in politics
The basic awareness and interest in politics of most Americans is secondary
Surveys show substantial lack of political knowledge on part of the public
Identifying political figures (congressmen, senators, S.C. justices etc.)
Identifying key issues (Roe v. Wade, ERA, foreign policy etc.)