1. TCBMs in Space: A Role for Middle Powers
Fifth International Manfred Lachs Conference on Global Space Governance
May 5-6, 2017
Theresa Hitchens

2. The Problem Increased geopolitical friction, particularly in space
China, Russia, US consideration of counterspace ops – offensive and defensive
“Iron Triangle” of worst-case assumptions/mirror imaging
Technology demos of potential weapons capabilities
China, Russia and US (others following?)
Ground-based: RF jamming, directed energy, kinetic
Space-based: maneuvering satellites
Risks of war in space growing

3. The Problem, cont’d
Multilateral efforts to establish voluntary norms, TCBMs moving very slowly if at all
2013 UN GGE Report on TCBMs in space “failure to launch”
Little new implementation; few reports on activities
COPUOS LTS Working Group best practices effort slow
2018 end date, success not guaranteed (Iran)
Measures not directly at security issues
Question will be implementation
Code of Conduct in limbo

4. GGE Reccomendations GGE made recommendations in five broad categories:
Enhancing the transparency of outer space activities
International cooperation including capacity building
Consultative measures
Outreach
Coordination
Including a joint meeting of the 4th and 1st Committees
GGE recommendations provide options for action by Middle Powers individually and jointly

5. Middle Power Options: GGE Implementation
Establishment of contacts and focal points
Including government and industry
Report to UNGA/COPUOS
Characterizing/socializing application of international law to space activities
Manual of International Law Applicable to Military Uses (McGill/Adelaide) could be int’l fora, supported
Call a “prepcom” to prepare 1st/4th Oct meeting

6. GGE Implementation, cont’d
Institutionalizing UN Debris Mitigation Guidelines
National laws/regulations to require
Capacity-building efforts for emerging space actors
Policy, legal, technical assistance
Enhancing notification of on-orbit activities
Planned launches and final orbital parameters
Scheduled maneuvers that might create risks
Uncontrolled re-entries
Orbital breakups
Can be institutionalized and reported unilaterally

7. Middle Power Options: New Ideas
Promoting/supporting research on globally- accessible SSA database
Contribute to sensor development, improved propagation models, harmonization, database
Support for development of STM options
Legal, policy, technical considerations require research
Contribute expertise on safe operations of smallsats
Promote international discussion via COPUOS and Track 1.5 fora

8. Conclusions
Vacuum in leadership on space governance can be filled by Middle Power actions
Australia, Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom in position to lead new efforts
Political/legal expertise
Technical expertise
Funds for independent research
Near-term and mid-term possibilities for progress

9. Questions? Theresa Hitchens Senior Research Scholar
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), University of Maryland