1. Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects
Colin Daniel
Apex Resource Management Solutions

2. “Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition”
What is a Model?
“Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition”
Conceptual Models
Development can disturb caribou
2. Quantitative Models

3. How Do We Build Models?

4. Past Integrated Modelling Projects
Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities (2004)
How will climate change and oil development affect the availability of caribou to villages surrounding the PCH?
Modelling Effects of Development on the Bathurst Caribou Herd (2009-?)
What are the potential effects of mine development and climate change on the summer range of the Bathurst herd?

5. Conceptual Model

6. Conceptual Model

7. Conceptual Model

8. Conceptual Model

9. Conceptual Model

10. Modelling Bathurst Summer Range
Activities Considered:
Active Mines
Mineral Exploration Activities
Outfitter Camps
Scenarios Considered:
3 levels of development (None, Current, 2X)
3 climate scenarios (average, best, worst)

11. Model Integration

12. Preliminary Results
Demonstrated approach possible

13. Preliminary Results Demonstrated approach possible
Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change

14. Models Integration

15. Preliminary Results Demonstrated approach possible
Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change
Effect of climate on fall body weight

16. Preliminary Results Demonstrated approach possible
Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change
Effect of climate on fall body weight
Identified key data gaps:
Activity budgets
Summer range body condition data
Biomass estimates

17. Why Build Quantitative Models?
Integrate understanding
Explicit assumptions
Quantify predictions
“What-if?” analysis
Identify data needs and knowledge gaps
Prioritize future research & monitoring
Require resources & expertise!

19. June Diets

20. June a critical time for caribou
Calving
Peak energy and protein demands
Most rapid change in plant growth
Major shifts in diet
Early calf survival linked to timing green-up of plants
Cows and calves most sensitive to disturbance

21. Griffiths et al..
Russell et al..
Manseau..
Parrett..

22. June - Energy and protein intake
Timing of
peak lactation –
10 days after calving