1. CRed Climate Change – The Greatest Threat to Mankind?
Hard Choices Ahead
Rotary District th January 2006
Rotarian Keith Tovey
Rotary Club of Norwich
CRed
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences, UEA

3. Change in precipitation 1961-2001
Source: Tim Osborne, CRU
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation

4. Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
Nasa satellite imagery
20% reduction in 24 years
CRed
Source: Nasa

5. CRed Difficult Choices Ahead
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
CRed

6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Transport Fuels:
Biodiesel?
Bioethanol?

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

9. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

10. Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

11. Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

12. Government Response
Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050
Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
(– but no indication of how this will be undertaken)
“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’
- Energy White Paper: February 2003

13. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million in he Norfolk
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

14. Raising Awareness 1.6 miles
Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.
10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year
~ 1000 balloons each year.
Standby on electrical appliances
80+ kWh a year balloons.
A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank – 40 litres)
kg of CO (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles

15. Involve the local Community
Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.
On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

16. Electricity Statistics:
Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.
Broadland kWh Breckland kWh
North Norfolk kWh South Norfolk kWh
Kings Lynn and West Norfolk kWh
Great Yarmouth kWh
A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands supplies ~ 66% of domestic needs for Norwich (or 22% of total demand)
Would save ~ to tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or hot air balloons each year.
The alternative:
Persuade motorists never to drive the car again
Or motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

17. Hard Choices What can we as individuals do?
What can you do collectively as a Club?
Visit the CRed WEB Site
Sign a pledge to
combat global warming
help secure a sustainable environment for our children
help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming
help secure energy supplies for the future
saving energy
Adopting technical solutions
Promoting Awareness
Prromoting appropriate renewable energy

18. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
Otherwise Nuclear???
Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

19. Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Conclusions
Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher