1. Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007; 2014).

2. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level (IPCC, 2007).

3. Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Arctic sea ice reached its lowest extent in late summer of (compared to average over 30 years-yellow line).
The Arctic region could ice-free within 30 years.
Note thatsince % of the polar ice cap has melted away.
Does the melting of this sea ice affect global sea level?

4. Of the 29,000 observational data series from 75 studies, that show significant change in many physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to warming (IPCC, 2007).
Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature (IPCC, 2007).

5. Global carbon dioxide production by country
Global carbon dioxide production by country. Note that China surpassed the U.S. production 9 years ago and India and Brazil are rapidly developing!

6. Per capita carbon dioxide emission by country (2012).

7. (a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 1970 to (b) Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (c) Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (forestry includes deforestation) (IPCC, 2007).

8. Relative importance of atmospheric gases and particulate matter on global warming versus cooling. Note that methane gas has a greater greenhouse effect than CO2 gas, but its anthropogenic productioin and overall atmospheric level is lower.

9. Relative importance of atmospheric gases and particulate matter on global warming. Note that methane gas has a greater greenhouse effect than CO2 gas, but its anthropogenic productioin and overall atmospheric level is lower.

10. Anthropogenic concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O) over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset panels).
Measurements are shown from ice cores (symbols with different colors for different studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines).
The corresponding radiative forcings relative to 1750 are shown on the right hand axes of the large panel (IPCC, 2007).
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the past 650,000 years.

12. How is the rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration changing over time?
What accounts for the annual variation in the Mauna Loa record?

13. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic forcings.

14. Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100 in absence of additional climate policies (IPCC, 2007). SRES - (Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000).

15. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model projections of surface warming ( and ). IPCC, 2007.

16. What is a climate model?
A climate model could be defined as a mathematical representation of the climate system based on physical, biological and chemical principles.

17. General Circulation Models (GCMs) try to account for all the important properties of the system at the highest affordable resolution.
Simple climate models (such as the Energy Balance Models, or EBMs) propose a highly simplified version of the dynamic of the climate system.
EMICs (Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity) are located between those two extremes.

18. CLIMAP Member, 1976 (Published in the journal Science)
Boundary Conditions Used in the GCM Simulations of the LGM (18,000 years ago) Atmosphere
1. Geography of the continents
2. The albedo of the land and ice surfaces
3. The extent and elevation of permanent ice
The sea-surface temperature
The numerical simulations will serve to evaluate the sensitivity of the GCM
to substantial changes in the boundary conditions and to elucidate the dynamics of the past climates.

19. Boundary conditions used in the GCM simulations during the LGM (CLIMAP, 1976).

21. Boundary conditions (shown above) used to produce general circulation models of past (e.g., COHMAP, 1988) and future climate change.

22. Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period , relative to Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change (IPCC, 2007).

24. CO2 emissions and equilibrium temperature increases (above pre-industrial for a range of stabilization levels.