1. HNRT 228: Astrobiology with Bennett and Shostak
Chapter 12 overview
SPRING 2016
by Dr. Geller
With added material by Dr. Zimmerman Ind.U.

2. iClicker Question
About how many extrasolar planets have been detected to date?
A between 10 and 100
B between 100 and 1000
C more than 1000

3. iClicker Question
How have we detected most extrasolar planets discovered to date (before Kepler mission)?
A Transits
B Hubble Space Telescope images
C the Doppler related technique

4. iClicker Question
Which technique does the Kepler mission use to search for Earth size planets around other stars?
A Transits.
B The astrometric technique.
C The Doppler related technique.
D Gravitational lensing.

5. iClicker Question
Nearly all the extrasolar planets discovered to date are
A terrestrial-like planets.
B jovian-like planets.
C large, icy worlds.

6. What’s talked about in Chapter 12
The Drake Equation (12.1)
The Question of Intelligence (12.2)
Searching for Intelligence (12.3)
The Process of Science in Action: UFOs and Aliens on Earth (12.4)

7. It’s a Big Galaxy in a Big Universe

8. Extrasolar Capability Review

9. The First Extrasolar Planets Discovered

10. What are the odds? Drake Equation Odds of planets
Odds of Earth-like planet
Odds of life
Odds of civilization
Longevity of civilization

11. The Drake Equation
N = R fp np fl fi ft L
fi = fraction of those life-bearing planets on which intelligence evolves
ft = fraction of those intelligent-life planets that develop technological society
L = average lifetime of a technologically competent civilization.

12. Original Drake Equation

13. The Rate of Star Formation
We can estimate the average number of stars forming each year in the Galaxy simply by noting that at least 100 billion stars now shine in the Milky Way. Dividing this number by the 10-billion-year lifetime of the Galaxy, we obtain a formation rate of 10 stars per year. This may be an overestimate because we think that fewer stars are forming now than formed at earlier epochs of the Galaxy, when more interstellar gas was available. However, we do know that stars are forming today, and our estimate does not include stars that formed in the past and have since exploded, so our value of 10 stars per year is probably reasonable when averaged over the lifetime of the Milky Way. HST has provided us with a value of 20 stars per year.

14. Fraction of Stars with Planets
Accepting the condensation theory and its consequences, and without being either too conservative or naively optimistic, we assign a value near 1 to this term - that is, we believe that essentially all stars have planetary systems.
A caveat: Note that extrasolar planets have very different characteristics than the planets of the Solar System.

15. The Number of Habitable Planets Per Star
Estimate 1 planet in 10 would be a habitable planet
Eliminate planets around the short lived stars
Most likely candidates are stars somewhat similar to the Sun (F,G,K)
Long lived; fairly large habitable zone
This means (combining probabilities) the number of habitable planets per star is between 0.1 and 0.01

16. Fraction upon which Life arises
If we accept the mediocrity principle then this fraction is 1.
It could be as low as 0 if one believes life is rare.

17. Intelligent Life
One school of thought maintains that, given enough time, intelligence is inevitable. In this view, assuming that natural selection is a universal phenomenon, at least one organism on a planet will always rise to the level of "intelligent life." If this is correct, then the fifth term in the Drake equation equals or nearly equals 1.
Others argue that there is only one known case of intelligence, and that case is life on Earth. For 2.5 billion years ̶ from the start of life about 3.5 billion years ago to the first from the start of life about 3.5 billion years ago to the first appearance of multicellular organisms about 1 billion years ago ̶ life did not advance beyond the one-celled stage. This would mean the fraction is close to 0.

18. Technology
The anthropomorphic view: if we do it every one else will so the fraction is 1.
The view of the dolphins: show me the fish. The fraction is close to 0.

19. Lifetime of Civilizations
Guess
We blow ourselves up: 75 years
We do not blow ourselves up ̶ who knows?
> 100 years or > years ?

20. Putting in the Numbers
Unless one is pessimistic the fractions are all of order 1 so we get
N = 1 * Lifetime
So we get 10's to 1000's of civilizations
Many use 10,000
But now consider the distances between those civilizations!!!

21. iClicker Question
The end result of a calculation with Drake equation is intended to be an estimate of
A the number of worlds in the galaxy on which life has arisen.
B the number of worlds in the galaxy on which intelligence has arisen.
C the number of worlds in the galaxy on which civilizations are transmitting signals now.

22. iClicker Question
Which of the following statements is true about the terms in the Drake equation?
A Astronomical research will soon give us firm values for all of the terms.
B Some of the terms depend on sociology, and cannot be determined by astronomers alone.
C We already know the terms of the equation to an accuracy within a factor of 2.

23. What about Reports of Abductions for Sexual Relations?
Consider the number of ETI life forms with whom humans could successfully have sexual relations:
Where:
Sx = Number of ETI civilizations with whom humans could have sexual relations.
N = Number of civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy with electromagnetic emissions.
fs = Fraction of ETIs with dextro sugar stereo-isomers.
faa = Fraction of ETIs with levo amino acid stereo-isomers.
fcod = Fraction of ETIs with same codon interpretation.
fchr = Fraction of ETIs with same chromosomal length.
fmem = Fraction of ETIs with same cell membrane structure to allow egg penetration.

24. What is intelligent life?
How do you measure intelligence? IQ
Intelligence Quotient EQ
Encephalization Quotient
Are humans only intelligent species on Earth?
Great apes and chimpanzees
do they have a sense of “I”

25. Encephalization Quotient

26. Intelligence Quotient
An Intelligence Quotient or IQ is a score derived from one of several different standardized tests attempting to measure intelligence. The term "IQ," a translation of the German Intelligenz-Quotient, was coined by the German psychologist William Stern in 1912 as a proposed method of scoring early modern children's intelligence tests such as those developed by Alfred Binet and Theodore Simon in the early 20th Century. Although the term "IQ" is still in common use, the scoring of modern IQ tests such as the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale is now based on a projection of the subject's measured rank on the Gaussian bell curve with a center value (average IQ) of 100, and a standard deviation of 15 (different tests have various standard deviations; the Stanford-Binet IQ test has a standard deviation of 16).

27. iClicker Question
The fact that marine predators like dolphins and sharks have similar shapes despite different ancestry is an example of
A convergent evolution.
B narrow bandwidth.
C spontaneous creation.

28. iClicker Question
Which of the following would lead an animal to a higher encephalization quotient (EQ) as it evolved?
A Growth in both body size and brain size.
B Growth in body size but not in brain size.
C Growth in brain size but not in body size.

29. Cosmic Evolution?

30. Where to look? The Water Hole

31. Antenna Diameter (meters) Frequency Observed (MHz)
Year
Investigator
Antenna Diameter (meters)
Frequency Observed (MHz)
1960
Drake 26
1420
Troitskii 14
100, 1800 & 2500
Zuckerman & Palmer 91
1972
Verschuur
43 & 91
Bowyer
variable
Dixon 53
Bridle & Feldman 46
22 & 235
Drake & Sagan
305
1420,1653 & 2380
1988
Bania & Rood 43
8665
1995-present
Horowitz
NASA
26 & 34
1700 &
1992-present
1996-present
Werthimer
SETI Institute
64 & 305
1990-present 30
1420,1667 & 3300
Kingsley
0.1
0.55
SETI League
1997-present
BAMBI & SARA
2.6 & 3
1998-present
305 & 76
Australia SERENDIP 64
1999-present
UC Berkeley
2000-present
Montebugnoli 32
1420 & 4260
Past Searches (to 2000)

33. How Far Can We Go?

34. Looking for Life Artifacts Probes Signals aliens here?
Viking, Voyager, Pioneer
Signals
radio
optical
other

35. One Form of Communication

36. Another Form of Communication

37. Is this really how it’s done?

38. One Way It’s Done

39. Arecibo Message

40. What does it mean?

41. Decoded Arecibo Message

42. iClicker Question
Two-way conversation with other societies is probably unlikely, even if we make contact. This is mainly because
A aliens won’t speak our language.
B it might be dangerous to get in touch.
C the time it takes for signals to cross the distance to them could be centuries or more.

43. iClicker Question
One reason the scientists doubt that crop circles have alien origin is
A they are always beautiful.
B they can be easily made by humans.
C their appearance is not correlated with sightings of bright lights.

44. Midwestern Archaeology
And Now a Word From Dr. Zimmerman
Lost Tribes, Sunken Continents, and Ancient Astronauts
On the Wild Side of
Midwestern Archaeology
Title slide
Larry Zimmerman
Department of Anthropology/Museum Studies
IUPUI

45. Ancient Mysteries?
You may know of some of the apparently puzzling ancient mysteries—the Shroud of Turin (upper left), the supposedly future predicting measurements of the passages in the Great Pyramid, the purported space ship runways on the Nazca Plain of Peru. But many such claims are a lot closer to home and have an history.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

46. Why Search Elsewhere When The Midwest has it all? Bigfoot
The Moundbuilder Myth
Atlantis
Ancient Tablets
UFOs
Sunken Pyramids
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

47. Why People Believe Weird Things
Fun
Fantasy and escapism
The truth is too simple
Mistrust of science
Poor science education
“Received” wisdom
Purposes of this lecture:
There are lots of reasons why people believe weird things (to use Michael Schermer’s book title), but here are a few notions. The lecture has several purposes.
To show some examples of fantastic archaeology in the Midwest
To provide some tools for examining fantastic claims
To have some fun
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

48. The Archaeology of a Myth
The Mound Builders
The Archaeology of a Myth
The Core belief: Indians could not have built the mounds and other amazing earthworks, therefore someone else must have.
Who? Almost anyone—Irish, Scandinavians, Libyans, Tartars, Lost Tribes of Israel, and many others
Why? Lack of reliable data, theological modes of explanation, non-existence of a tradition of scientific thought, a continuing sense of wonder at the exotic nature of the New World
The Result?
Wild speculation
The fantastic beliefs began soon after habitation of the Americas, and in the Midwest, not long after the first Euroamerican settlers arrived. They believed that the earthworks they found could not be built by the resident Indian people. There was good reason they didn’t believe: the diseases that decimated the Indians killed off the people whose ancestors had built the mounds, and the contemporary cultures were shadows of their former selves.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

49. A European (i.e., white) History of America?
There was an apparent need for an heroic past that would resemble that of Europe. The  reasons are complex:
The colonists were in one sense a "people without a history"
Those living in Europe thought that something must be wrong with the environment here to cause such revolutions
Needed a "white" history to claim the land - a precursor to Manifest Destiny
The arguments surrounding the Kennewick skeleton are a survivor of this attitude. Evident in the 60 Minutes piece on the Ancient One.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

50. The Davenport Conspiracy
A Case from Iowa, 1877
The Davenport Conspiracy
Jacob Gass
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

51. Goodbye to the Mound Builders
For most of the scientific community, the myth was laid to rest by the work of Cyrus Thomas and his staff with the publication of the 12th Annual Report of the Bureau of American Ethnology, 1890 (published 1894). A good source on the episode in Robert Silverberg’s The Mound Builders: The Archaeology of a Myth.
Or was it?
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

52. Mound Builder Survivals
LDS believes that Jesus visited the Americas. The Indians were descended from the Lost Tribes of Israel.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

53. Barry Fell and Epigraphy
Diffusionists
Barry Fell and Epigraphy
Ignatius Donnelly and Atlantis, 1882
Graham Hancock’s Lost Civilization at 12,500 BP
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

54. Cardiff Giant, 1868 : An Iowa Connection
Hoaxes
Hoaxes thrived in the late 1800s
Social contexts similar to Mound Builder Myth
Piltdown Man, 1912
From 1866 until 1868 Mr. George Hull, of Binghamton, New York studied archeology and paleontology. Over this period of time Hull contemplated how to pull off a hoax. It seems that many an evangelist at the time had been preaching that there were giants in the earth. In June of 1868 Hull traveled back to Fort Dodge, Iowa where there was a gypsum quarry he had recalled seeing two years earlier.
Cardiff Giant, 1868 : An Iowa Connection
“There’s a sucker born every minute.” David Hannum
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

55. The Kensington Runestone
Hoax or not?
The Kensington Runestone
Olaf Ohman, 1898
They really got around!
Kensington Runestone - April 24th, 1362
Heavener Runestone - November 11th, 1012
Poteau Runestone - November 11th 1017
Shawnee Runestone - November 24th, 1024
Tulsa Runestone - December 2nd, 1022
Not Olaf Ohman, 2003
“2nd Minn. Runestone a hoax, say carvers”
AVM stone inscription
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

56. Just how many Vikings came?
This book says there are now fewer than 42 Viking settlements in Chickasaw, Howard, and Mitchell Counties in Iowa and Mower County in Minnesota.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

57. Map of the grave of 12 Vikings found by dowsing near Spring Grove, MN
Apparently, quite a few!
Map of the grave of 12 Vikings found by dowsing  near Spring Grove, MN
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

58. Artist Lee Krystek’s conception of the Iceman
The Minnesota Iceman
Artist Lee Krystek’s conception of the Iceman
Frank Hansen toured the Iceman across the Midwest to carnivals and fairs from the late 60's - early 80's.
The tour truck
A juvenile Bigfoot?
Frank Hansen and the Iceman
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

59. Could this be the remains of one?
There were giants in the earth in those days… (Gen.6:1-4)
George W. Hill, M.D., dug out a skeleton "of unusual size" in a mound of Ashland County, Ohio. In 1879, a nine-foot, eight-inch skeleton was excavated from a mound near Brewersville, Indiana. The bones, which were stored in a grain mill, were swept away in the 1937 Flood (Indianapolis News, Nov 10, 1975).
Could this be the remains of one?
Photo is a 2004 Web hoax

60. The Saga of Burrows Cave―Olney, Illinois
A cache of Mauritanian coins from the cave
A Mauritanian warship
The scarification of this man identifies him as Senegalese.
The Crucifixion
hat interpretation begins, not in 20th Century Illinois, but on the other side of the globe, in a forgotten kingdom of North Africa once known as Maur- itania. Encompassing the equivalent of today's Morocco and parts of western Algeria, it was governed by King Juba II, 2,000 years ago. He and his people stemmed from ancient Caucasian stock: the Mauri, who were believed to have migrated from Asia Minor after the fall of Troy in the late 13th Century B.C.. They were thus culturally and racially dif- ferent from the dark- skinned inhabitants who presently occupy North Africa. The cave was found in 1982 by Russell Burrows. He has found and sold some 7,000 artifacts.
One of the relatively few marble slabs removed from the Illinois site portrays either a Mauritanian ruler or high priest of the 1st Century A.D.

61. Mike Quast and Bigfoot sightings in Minnesota
Bigfoot and Other Critters
A few of the reported monsters in the Midwest
Illinois:The Hardin Monster, Murphysboro Mud Monster,
Indiana: The Beast of Busco (Churubusco), The Crawfordsville Monster, 30 reported Bigfoot sightings since 1997, the majority in southern Indiana
Wisconsin: The Lake Koshkonong Monster, Long Lake, Elkhart Lake, Lake Geneva, Lake Kegonsa, Lake Michigan, Oconomowoc Lake, Pewaukee Lake, Red Cedar Lake,Rock Lake, Lake Superior, Sturgeon Lakes, Mendota and Monona in Madison
Mike Quast and Bigfoot sightings in Minnesota
There must be a lot of them running or swimming around! Almost as many as the Vikings…
The Beast of Busco is the subject of a local legend in Churubusco, Indiana about an enormous turtle named Oscar which terrorized the citizens back in Despite a month's long hunt that briefly gained national attention, the Beast of Busco was never found and is considered long gone. But Oscar's memory lives on in Churubusco's Turtle Days festival held each June. It includes a parade, carnival and turtle races. One of the most bizarre of all cryptozoological cases comes out of Crawfordsville, Indiana during September of A story carried by the Indianapolis Journal for September 5th said that at two o'clock the previous morning a "horrible apparition" appeared in the sky overhead, where two men who were working on a wagon saw it. The men estimated that the creature was about one hundred feet in the air, twenty feet long and eight feet wide.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

62. Prince Madoc: The Founder of Clark County Indiana
…and progenitor of the Mandan Indians of the Missouri River
Based on the painter George Catlin’s comments:
The Mandans spoke Welsh (he didn’t know Welsh!)
They used a boat which was know as the Welsh Coracle
Many of the Mandans had blond hair and blue eyes
One of the most deeply entrenched legends of the area has to do with Prince Madoc of Wales and a supposed stone fortress atop Devils Backbone at Fourteen Mile Creek in Clark County, Indiana. Eventually, Madoc and his colonists reached Clark County, Indiana, where Olson believed they became known as the Mandan Indians. General George Rogers Clark reportedly found some skeletons in armour that he thought were ancient Welshmen. Other Welsh armour, marked with the mermaid and harp that appeared on Madoc’s coat of arms, was found near the Falls of the Ohio. Native Americans in the area spoke of yellow-haired giants, whose kings were buried in stone cists, and of a war of extermination waged against the “White Indians.” The final battle took place at the Falls of Ohio, where “nearly the whole of the White Indians were driven upon an island and slaughtered.” (excerpted from Jean Hunt, quoting from Dana Olson’s book, Prince Madoc: Founder of Clark County, Indiana)

63. Ancient Astronauts and The Pyramids of Rock Lake,Wisconsin
In his books (lower right),Erich von Daniken (below) suggests that many of the earth’s monuments were built by ancient astronauts. Could Wisconsin’s pyramids have been built by ancestors of the occupants of this UFO (right) reported in in West Central Minnesota, November, 2003?
Professor James Shertz, of the University of Wisconsin, is trying to get to the bottom of the reputed stone pyramids submerged in Rock Lake, near Lake Mills, Wisconsin. Fishermen have hit the pyramids with their oars when the lake is very low; and others have spotted structures (perhaps as many as four) from the air. In 1937, a diver reported seeing a 29-foot-high pyramid in the murky waters. Recent divers have found boulder alignments; but the visibility is so poor that organized structures cannot be identified.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

64. Whats’ the Harm? Other than that, not much.
Many diminish human abilities & accomplishments.
They deprive people of knowledge about their real history.
They draw away funding from scientific research.
Belief in pseudoscientific ideas about “harmless” notions supports belief in pseudoscientific belief about harmful notions, such as false medical claims.
Other than that, not much.
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

65. Be a skeptic! Recognizing Pseudoscientific Claims about the Past
Sometimes you can read a book by its cover!
Are seemingly outrageous claims made?
Does the claimant have any training or credentials in the subject about which the claim is made?
Are leading questions being asked?
Are real scientists talking about it?
Be a skeptic!
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

66. A Skeptic’s Tools Always keep an open mind, but consider:
Irrefutable hypothesis Argument by authority Appeal to myth Argument by spurious similarity Heresy does not equal correctness Occam's razor
Extraordinary claims demand
extraordinary proof
Good old common sense
Irrefutable hypothesis: Using data or claims that are impossible to prove
Argument by authority: It’s right because of someone’s credentials. Use this carefully in that it does not do to say that anyone’s credentials are as good as anyone else’s.
Appeal to Myth: One starts with a myth from ancient times, takes them as actual reports, and comes up with a hypothesis that explains the events by positing special conditions that pertained then, but no longer pertain today.
Gray-bag approach: an overwhelming amount of evidence makes up for any deficiency in the quality of individual pieces of evidence
Argument by spurious similarity: Using real science as a background to support a false hypothesis
Heresy does not equal correctness: Similarity to other heretics who were later proven correct
Occam’s Razor: confronted with two hypothesis that explain data equally well, choose the simpler
Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof: the need for peer review and full scrutiny of other scientists
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

67. Satan’s Corpse in South Dakota?
My favorite happened while in South Dakota
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology

68. Finally, there is proof Aliens believe in Skeptics
On the Wild Side of Midwestern Archaeology