1. The Future of Fossil Carbons:
Bitumen Beyond Combustion Project
Axel Meisen, C.M., Ph.D., P.Eng., EurIng, FCAE, FCIC
Senior Advisor to Alberta Innovates
2017 CAE Annual Meeting, Ottawa, ON
June 26, 2017

2. Petroleum / Oil (including Bitumen)
Fossil Carbons: Types
Natural
Gas
Petroleum / Oil (including Bitumen)
Coal

3. Longevity of Global Proven Fossil Carbon Reserves at Current Usage Rates
Years*
Coal
>119
Oil
>44
Gas
>56
* Excluding tight oil and shale gas

4. Canada’s Oil Sands Bitumen: Concentration 6 to 18% Reserves 170 B bbl
3.5 M bpd >130 years

5. The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone,
Sheikh Zaki Yamani (1973)
The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone,
and
TRUE or FALSE?
the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil

6. 2015 USA Refinery Runs (including bitumen)
Petroleum Products:
2015 USA Refinery Runs (including bitumen)
k bpd* %
Combustion products
15,600 94
Gasoline
7,100 43
Distillate fuel oil
4,600 28
Kerosene
1,500 9
Other
2,400 14
Non-combustion products
870 6
Asphalts
310 2
Petrochemicals
260
300
* k bpd = thousands of barrels per day

7. Forces Determining Demand for Petroleum Combustion Products
Climate concerns
Energy conservation
& efficiencies
Demand
Alternative
energy sources
Population
growth
Prosperity
increases
Demand

8. Change in Demand for Petroleum Combustion Products by Year 2030No
change
Don’t
know Up
Down A B C D

9. Strategy
Identify major non-combustion products obtainable from oil sands
Functionally and price competitive
Large-scale: >100,000 bpd bitumen per product category; >500,000 bpd in aggregate
Bitumen Beyond Combustion (BBC) Project

10. Mind Map for Non-Combustion Products Made from Oil Sands
Concept based on work of the Bowman Centre for Sustainable Energy

11. BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Asphalts
Markets:
Roads
Infrastructure
Specific Issues:
Performance
Long-range transport
Long-term storage

12. BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Carbon Fibres and Composites
Markets:
Steel replacement
Wood composites
Specific Issues:
Process technologies
Certification
Flammability

13. BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Graphenes
Markets:
Steel replacement
Copper replacement
Specific Issues:
Knowledge gaps
Lack of production
Process technologies

14. BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Polyurethanes
Markets:
Construction
Transportation
Consumer goods
Specific Issues:
Feedstocks
Process technologies
Flammability

15. BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Polycarbonates
Markets:
Transportation
Construction
Specific Issues:
Hardness
Certification
Process technologies

16. BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Controlled-release Fertilizers
Markets:
Agriculture
Horticulture
Specific Issues:
Proven effectiveness
Process technologies

17. BBC Project Phase 1 Result: Additive Manufacturing
Markets:
Custom manufacture
Prototyping
Mold manufacture
Specific Issues:
Materials
Large scale uses

18. Potential 2030 Markets - Expressed as Bitumen Demand (Subject to key assumptions)
Global Bitumen
Demand (k bpd)
Asphalts 20,400
Carbon Fibres:
Current uses 30
Steel replacement 34,600
Vehicle use 1,100
Wood composites 1,650
Graphene 750??
Polyurethane 500
Polycarbonate 120
Controlled release fertilizers 100
Additive manufacturing ???

19. Principal Conclusions
BBC Phase 1 Project:
Principal Conclusions
The global market potential for non-combustion products from oil sands is sound
Converting oil sands constituents into non-combustion products is complex and energy intensive

20. with partners from industry and government
Next Step: BBC Project Phase 2
A detailed study on the ‘Techno-economic Potential of Oil Sands Constituents for Non-Combustion Products’
sponsored by
with partners from industry and government

21. The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone,
Sheikh Zaki Yamani (1973)
The Stone Age did not end for a lack of stone,
Stone-use changed from tools to materials
and
the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil
Oil-use will likely change towards materials and food

22. Acknowledgement
Some images in this presentation were taken from publicly available websites, with their use being gratefully acknowledged and restricted to this presentation
Disclaimer
The contents of this presentation resulted from the presenter’s professional work and should not be construed as representing the views or positions of organizations with which he is collaborating