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Market Operations Engagement Group EVSE Working Group
September 13, 2016 Presentation material does not represent the views of the Joint Utilities Engagement Group as the group is still in discussion on these topics. Please do not redistribute this deck.
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Agenda Time Topic 10:00 – 10:15 Introductions & Agenda Review
10:15 – 10:30 Recap of August 30th EVSE SEG Meeting 10:30 – 11:00 JU Discussion on EV Adoption Forecast and Utility Planning 11:00 – 11:15 Break 11:15– 12:15 Group Discussion – State & Regional Adoption Forecasts, Methodologies & Inputs 12:15 – 12:45 REV Connect Overview – David O’Brien, Navigant 12:45 – 1:00 Summary & Next Steps
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Guidance Requirements to Address – Supplemental DSIP
The Supplemental DSIP also presents the opportunity for the utilities to collaborate in the development of initiatives that will have the effect of reducing carbon emissions, including de- carbonizing the transportation system. One such opportunity that should be addressed in the Supplemental DSIP is planning for, and enabling increased deployment of, electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The market growth of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be enhanced by the State’s PEV deployment goals resulting in increasing demand and adoption of PEVs and the corresponding need for EVSE will likewise increase (p. 25) Coordinated statewide approaches by the utilities will directly contribute to market development and decreases in carbon emissions. In addition to new demand on the system resulting from PEV charging service, issues related to vehicle-grid integration will have direct impact on utility operations and planning. Therefore, it is appropriate for the utilities to include consideration of EVSE deployment as part of the DSIP process. (p. 26) While PEV and corresponding EVSE market conditions may vary across the state, early planning should identify and address collaborative initiatives that can set the stage for accelerated market growth. The collaborative planning may also be supplemented by individual utility initiatives, consistent with the collaborative planning for the deployment and integration of EVSE in their service territory. (p. 26) The required engagement plan should also include a description of plans to coordinate and engage with stakeholders including the industry and municipalities in investigating and developing their EVSE deployment approaches or proposals. (p. 26)
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Market Operations Engagement Group Charter
Purpose: Explore the Joint Utilities' approaches for facilitating market mechanisms that effectively support and encourage the adoption of Distributed Energy Resources while meeting customers’ needs and complying with the DSIP Guidance Order. Topic & Scope: Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) EVSE Describe and discuss current or planned areas of JU collaboration on EVSE issues: REV and other demonstration projects Customer outreach and education efforts Involvement or coordination with EV-related state and local partnerships, programs and initiatives Discuss the opportunity for the JUs to contribute to a coordinated collaborative effort around the broader EV market issues in New York Discuss various forecasting methodology and tools related to EV adoption, and explore JU input into a shared view for New York State, considering transportation sector impacts as well as state and federal requirements Discuss potential principles for utility facilitation of EV infrastructure
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Joint Utilities Discussion Forecasting Methodologies
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EV Adoption Forecasting & Utility Planning
Some of the utilities consider EV adoption forecasts as inputs to system planning Among the outputs of system planning is an investment plan, which identifies investment needs over the next 3-5 years Current and expected near-term levels of EV adoption do not significantly impact utility system planning scenarios and may not have impact on overall load forecasts and near- term distribution system investment plans Some utilities are developing internal models and EV adoption scenarios to estimate when EV adoption may begin to impact utility system planning Each utility is at a slightly different starting point as it pertains to incorporating EV penetration and adoption rates within their service territory into their system planning process
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Utility EV Adoption Forecasting Approaches
National Grid Load Forecasting, Purpose National Grid currently develops annual system load forecasts for peaks (MW) and energy (MWh) using econometric methods Peaks forecast primarily used for capital planning and reliability Energy forecast primarily used for rates, revenues and pricing There are a number of current DER policy and technology impacts beyond simple economics that are impacting peak and energy growth. These include Energy Efficiency, Demand Response, Distributed Generation, Energy Storage and Electric Vehicles. Post model adjustments are made to account for DERs, as necessary. At this stage, EV load is included in National Grid’s load forecasts for informational purposes only. It is not significant enough at current levels to include as a specific load-modifier.
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Utility EV Adoption Forecasting Approaches
National Grid EV Scenarios, Volumes Scenario Approach: Low: Annual Energy Outlook (Energy Information Administration) Medium (Basecase): Market Share of Vehicle Registrations High: Zero Emissions Vehicles Targets
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Utility EV Adoption Forecasting Approaches
National Grid EV Scenarios, Load Impacts Energy less than 0.5% to greater than 3.0% Peak less than 1.0% (w/”system”)
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Utility EV Adoption Forecasting Approaches
Central Hudson Developed a EV forecast in its service territory, based on historical EV registrations and pre-orders. This data was allocated to residential customers on a proportional basis Granular forecasting for EV is challenging due to low penetration rates and the inability to track infrastructure installed by customers or third parties
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Utility EV Adoption Forecasting Approaches
Con Edison / O&R Current EV Adoption Forecast Approach Current EV penetration in Con Edison / O&R is based on DMV data NYSERDA's EV adoption forecast for New York State* is used as the baseline 40,000 EVs in YE 2018 and 800,000 in YE 2025, Various adjustments are made for adoption timing specific to Con Edison / O&R The estimated number of EV in Con Edison / O&R is based on a weighted allocation of state-wide targets at the county-level, based on DMV data The EV adoption growth rate over the forecast period is based on MJ Bradley’s high penetration scenario * From NYSERDA’s “Review of New York State EV Charging Station market and Policy, Finance, and Market Development Solutions, Oct. 2015”
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Utility EV Adoption Forecasting Approaches
AVANGRID is tracking EV market penetration in the service territory in our DER tracking database
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State/Regional EV Adoption Forecasts
Group Discussion – Q&A State/Regional EV Adoption Forecasts
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Discussion of State/Regional EV Adoption Forecasts
NY State ZEV Objective of 800,000 vehicles by 2025 Discussion of “shape of the EV adoption curve” needed to achieve ZEV goal Identification of current state and/or regional EV adoption forecasting efforts Methodologies, inputs, assumptions Identification of current or planned efforts to advance EV adoption Timing Expected outcomes Opportunities for JU collaboration with stakeholders
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Overview of REV Connect David J. O’Brien – Navigant Consulting
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REFORMING THE ENERGY VISION: REV CONNECT
INTRODUCTORY PRESENTATION SEPTEMBER 13, 2016 Presented To: JU EVSE Stakeholder Group
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Approach to the Scope of Work Team & Structure
AGENDA REV Connect Approach to the Scope of Work Team & Structure
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INTRODUCTION TO REV CONNECT
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REV CONNECT OFFERS A STRUCTURE TO ADVANCE REV
REV Connect will… be a structure to advance New York State’s Reforming the Energy Vision goals; facilitate the deployment of new technologies and business models in the New York market; offer a central forum for third parties to submit project ideas and receive expert guidance, feedback and facilitation; match ideas with customers, communities, and utilities; advance high quality REV demonstrations, non-wire alternatives and other innovative projects; and, enhance the culture of innovation in NY State.
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CATALYZING PROJECTS THAT ADVANCE REV GOALS
Enhanced customer knowledge and tools that will support effective management of their total energy bill Market animation and leverage of ratepayer contributions System wide efficiency Fuel and resource diversity System reliability and resiliency Reduction of carbon emissions Central Hudson Gas & Electric CenHub Project Orange & Rockland Residential Customer Marketplace Project ConEd Building Efficiency Marketplace Project ConEd Clean Virtual Power Plant Project ConEd CONnectED Homes Platform Project NYSEG / RG&E Flexible Interconnect Capacity Solution Project NYSEG / RG&E Community Energy Coordination Project National Grid Resiliency Demonstration in Potsdam Project National Grid Fruit Belt Neighborhood Solar Project
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APPROACH TO THE SCOPE OF WORK
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APPROACH TO THE SCOPE OF WORK
Assess Take stock of the current state of REV implementation including REV demonstration projects, progress to date, and challenges Develop a constructive inventory of areas of interest, projects, challenges and preferred means to engage with REV Connect Build Develop fundamental tools for parties to engage including an online portal, application forms, and evaluation tools Develop a reporting mechanism to keep NYSERDA, utilities, NYDPS and participants apprised of our progress over time Facilitate Facilitate REV advancement through multi-faceted engagement from a day-to-day presence and availability to market actors and utilities to structured events to foster alignment and new idea creation Plan Iteratively develop a Long Term Innovation Plan in collaboration with the utilities, NYSERDA, NYDPS and market participants Set in motion a roadmap to continue the active facilitation that REV Connect will offer
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REV FOR THE MARKET - TACTICAL VIEW
PSC Docket Guidance and Order Utility / Stakeholder Profile Basic Information Corporate Info System Info Areas of Interest Plans Projects Qualifying Information BCA Handbook Value of D
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Schedule Launch Assess Build Facilitate Plan Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
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TEAM & STRUCTURE
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NAVIGANT TEAM & PARTNERS
David O’Brien Director in Charge Navigant Dia Koujak Project Manager Navigant Michelle Bebrin Facilitation Team Navigant Randy Armstrong Facilitation Team Navigant John Cerveny Facilitation Team NY-BEST Laney Brown Facilitation Team Modern Grid Partners William Acker Innovation Summit NY-BEST Mark Ishac Innovation Summit & Web Portal Zpryme Jason Rodriguez Innovation Summit & Web Portal Zpryme
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GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE
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CONTACTS DAVID O’BRIEN DIA KOUJAK MICHELLE BEBRIN LANEY BROWN
Navigant Consulting, Inc. Director DIA KOUJAK Associate Director MICHELLE BEBRIN Managing Consultant LANEY BROWN Modern Grid Partners VP – Grid Modernization Strategy JOHN CERVENY NY-BEST Director of Resource Development navigant.com
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Discussion - Q&A
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Summary and Next Steps
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September Stakeholder Engagement Conferences
September 15 – Demand & DER Forecasting and Cyber Security – Register 2:30 – 2:35 Introductions 2:35 – 3:55 Demand & DER Forecasting & Q/A* 3:55 – 4:55 Cyber Security & Q/A* 4:55 – 5p Summary & Wrap-up September 20 – Granular Pricing and DER Sourcing – Register 9:00 – 9:15 Introductions 9:15 – 9:45 Granular Pricing & Q/A* 9:45 – 11:15 DER Sourcing & Q/A* 11:15 – 11:30 Summary & Wrap-up *The Q/A portion of the conference will address questions received in advance plus those received during the session. If you have questions to pose now or additional questions that are not covered during the conference, please Please refer any interested colleagues to jointutilitiesofny.org for more information September 15th Registration: September 20th Registration:
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Thank you for joining us!
Please contact or visit our website for more information
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Appendix
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Advisory Group & Engagement Group Ground Rules
All stakeholder engagement (advisory group and engagement group) meetings, webinars and information exchange are designed solely to provide an open forum or means for the expression of various points of view in compliance with antitrust laws. Under no circumstances shall stakeholder engagement activities be used as a means for competing companies to reach any understanding, expressed or implied, which tends to restrict competition, or in any way, to impair the ability of participating members to exercise independent business judgment regarding matters affecting competition or regulatory positions. Proprietary information shall not be disclosed by any participant during any stakeholder engagement meeting or its subgroups. In addition, no information of a secret or proprietary nature shall be made available to stakeholder engagement members. All proprietary information which may nonetheless be publicly disclosed by any participant during any stakeholder engagement meeting or its subgroups shall be deemed to have been disclosed on a non-confidential basis, without any restrictions on use by anyone, except that no valid copyright or patent right shall be deemed to have been waived by such disclosure. AG & EG discussions will be open forums without attribution and no public documents by the AG or EG will be produced unless publication is agreed upon by the group.
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Overall Engagement Group Purpose & Objectives
The Market Operations Stakeholder Engagement Group (EG) is an open forum for stakeholders who are actively engaged in the REV process and the Distributed System Implementation Plan (DSIP) filings to provide input to, and exchange ideas with, the Joint Utilities of New York (JU) on topics related to grid operations as identified by the Joint Utilities Stakeholder Advisory Group (AG). Objectives The AG will advise the JU on the sequence and priorities of topics that Engagement Groups should discuss. The AG will also provide input on Engagement Group members, discussion scope, and any output documents that would advance greater shared understanding. The Engagement Groups will hold discussions on identified topics in order to achieve greater shared understanding of issues covered in the DSIP filings, and to build toward common ground through iterative discussion and feedback.
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Engagement Process Overview
Stakeholder Engagement Schedule Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 DSIP Final Guidance Initial DSIP Filings Supplemental DSIP Filing Advisory Group Mtgs Initial DSIP Stakeholder Engagement* Supplemental DSIP Engagement Groups Distribution Planning** Grid Operations Market Operations Stakeholder Conferences*** *Initial DSIP engagements dates based on individual JU workshop schedule during this period. **ITWG beginning in March, EG begins in May. *** Stakeholder engagement conferences to engage a wider set of participants to inform technical discussions and share Engagement Group results, as needed and in consultation with the Advisory Group Source: Updated plan for stakeholder engagement process as reflected in May 5th DSIP filing
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