1. A New Approach to Emerging Technology
September 24, 2014

2. What is a resource assessment?
Estimate of available, cost-effective efficiency measures left to be acquired
Uses utility load and customer forecasts, avoided costs, fuel splits, measure data, etc.
Energy Trust uses for utility IRP work & strategic plan

3. Methodology: Measure Definition
Include conventional and emerging technologies
Define measures incrementally
Factor in near-term codes & standards
Allow emerging technologies to improve over time
Use risk factors to hedge against uncertainty

4. Requires new/changed business model Start-up, or small manufacturer
ET Risk Factor
Risk Category
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Market Risk
(25% weighting)
High Risk:
Requires new/changed business model
Start-up, or small manufacturer
Significant changes to infrastructure
Requires training of contractors. Consumer acceptance barriers exist.
Low Risk:
Trained contractors
Established business models
Already in U.S. Market
Manufacturer committed to commercialization
Technical Risk
High Risk: Prototype in first field tests.
A single or unknown approach
Low volume manufacturer.
Limited experience
New product with broad commercial appeal
Proven technology in different application or different region
Low Risk: Proven technology in target application. Multiple potentially viable approaches.
Data Source Risk
(50% weighting)
High Risk: Based only on manufacturer claims
Manufacturer case studies
Engineering assessment or lab test
Third party case study (real world installation)
Low Risk: Evaluation results or multiple third party case studies
Consider the market, the technology, and the availability of good data when evaluating the risk factors

5. Risk Considerations How developed is the market? (25%)
Are there manufacturers?
Is the public likely to accept the product?
Is there a contractor/installer network?

6. Risk Considerations Is the technology proven? (25%)
Single lab/field tests
Small volume manufacturer
New product but broad appeal
Proven technology, but different market or application
Proven technology in target application

7. Risk Considerations How confident are we in the data? (50%)
Manufacturer’s claims/case studies
Lab/field test
3rd party lab/field test
Multiple tests or evaluations

8. Methodology: Emerging Technology
End result:
The estimate for any given emerging technology is not accurate
Taken as a whole, provides a reasonably conservative estimate of what is possible
This is not that different from the resource assessment as a whole: lots of assumptions on lots of measures, try to be as accurate as possible, but the more specific you get in looking at one number, the more likely there is something off.
Taken as a whole, however, the model provides a reasonable estimate.

9. Results

10. Room for Improvement Are we evaluating the right risks?
Are the risk factors appropriately scaled?
Include more emerging technologies

11. Emerging Technologies
HVAC/Weatherization
DHW
Lighting
Etc.
Residential
Windows
Absorption Gas HPWH
LED Specialty Lights
Smart Devices/Home Automation
Ceiling Insulation
CO2 HPWH
LED General Purpose
Wall Insulation
Advanced Solar Water Heat
Advanced Ducted HP
Advanced Gas Furnace
Commercial
Energy Recovery Ventilator
Gas-fired Heat Pump Water Heater
(improving) LED
Advance Refrigeration Controls
Advanced Ventilation Controls
AC Heat Recovery, HW
(improving) LED Troffer
Supermarket Max Tech Refrigeration
Gas-fired Heat Pump
(improving) Exterior LED
VIP Wall Insulation
(improving) High Bay LED
Highly Insulated Windows
Smart/Dynamic Windows
Advanced RTU A/C
Hybrid Evaporative Cooler
Industrial
Gas-fired HP Water Heater
Switched Reluctance Motors

12. Thank You Ted Light, Sr. Planning Project Manager