1. Draft Revised Short-term (2013-2014) Peak Forecast DAWG Demand Forecast PUP January 17, 2013
Tom Gorin, Miguel Garcia-Cerrutti
Demand Analysis Office
Electricity Supply Analysis Division

2. Summary of Presentation
Weather normalized 2012 peaks
Comparison to previous years temperature response
Changes in short-term econ/demo projections
Draft forecast results
Regression Summaries

3. California ISO Total Coincident
Comparison of 2012 weather normalized peak and adopted IEPR Forecast by TAC/Load Pocket
TAC Area/Load Pocket
Revised
1-in-2
Peak Demand
2011 IEPR
1-in-2 Peak Demand
1-in-2 Difference
1-in-10 Peak Demand
1-in-10 Difference
PG&E
21,208
21,356
-148
21,979
22,776
-797
PG&E Bay Area
8,590
8,651
-61
8,910
9,228
-318
PG&E Non-Bay
12,617
12,705
-88
13,068
13,548
-480
SCE
22,253
23,009
-756
24,376
24,741
-365
SDG&E
4,592
4,560 32
5,289
4,988
301
California ISO Total Coincident
46,900
47,751
-851
50,405
51,245
-840

4. Summer Weekday Afternoon Peak (MW) Versus Daily Max631 Temperature PG&E 2010-2012

5. Summer Weekday Afternoon Peak (MW) Versus Daily Max631 Temperature SCE 2010-2012

6. Summer Weekday Afternoon Peak (MW) Versus Daily Max631 Temperature SDG&E 2010-2012

7. Comparison of Peak Demand Growth Rates for 2013 and 2014 by Planning Area
Year
Econometric Model Growth Rates, October 2012 Economic Data
2011 IEPR Peak Demand Growth Rate
PG&E
2013
1.45%
2.45%
2014
2.58%
3.66%
SCE
1.34%
2.24%
3.47%
SDG&E
1.83%
2.00%
2.85%
2.80%

8. Comparison of to 2011 IEPR 1 in 10 Peak Demand Forecasts (Megawatts), 2013 and 2014

9. Revised Peak Demand Forecast (MW) by LSE/Load Pocket, Northern California 2013 and 2014
1-in-2 Peak
Forecast
1-in-10 Peak
2013
2014
City / County of San Francisco
132
135
137
140
NCPA - Greater Bay Area
237
243
246
252
Other NP15 LSEs - Greater Bay Area 3
PG&E Service Area - Greater Bay Area
7,894
8,098
8,188
8,399
Silicon Valley Power
449
461
466
478
Greater Bay Area Subtotal
8,715
8,940
9,040
9,273
CDWR - North
232
NCPA - Non Bay Area
225
230
233
239
Other NP15 LSEs - Non Bay Area 87 89 90 92
PG&E Service Area - Non Bay Area
9,466
9,710
9,818
10,071
WAPA
235
241
250
Total North of Path 15
18,959
19,442
19,656
20,158
CDWR - ZP26
277
PG&E Service Area - ZP26
2,272
2,330
2,356
2,417
Total Zone Path 26
2,549
2,607
2,633
2,694
Total Non Bay Area
12,793
13,110
13,250
13,579
Total North of Path 26
21,508
22,049
22,290
22,852

10. Revised Peak Demand Forecast (MW) by LSE/Load Pocket, Southern California 2013 and 2014
1-in-2 Peak
Forecast
1-in-10 Peak
2013
2014
Anaheim
557
570
611
626
Metropolitan Water District 21 23
Other SP15 LSEs - LA Basin
268
274
294
301
Pasadena
289
296
317
325
Riverside
549
562
602
617
SCE Service Area - LA Basin
16,194
16,591
17,765
18,201
Vernon
163
167
178
183
LA Basin Subtotal
18,040
18,482
19,790
20,275
CDWR-S
362
SCE Service Area - Big Creek Ventura
3,289
3,370
3,609
3,697
Big Creek/Ventura Subtotal
3,651
3,732
3,970
4,059
206
211
226
231
Other SP15 LSEs - Out of LA Basin 10 11
SCE Service Area - Out of LA Basin
675
692
741
759
Total SCE TAC Area
22,582
23,126
24,737
25,335
SDG&E Service Area
4,676
4,810
5,386
5,540
Total South of Path 26
27,258
27,936
30,123
30,874

11. Regression Details
Dependent variable = natural log of afternoon (hour 13-19) peak for summer period (June 15-Sept 15, 2012)

12. Regression Results for Total PG&E TAC
Variable
Estimated Coefficient
Standard Error
t-statistic
Intercept
weekend
min631
max631 <= 79
79 < max631 < 85
85 < max631 < 91
max631 >= 91
Divar (daily maxtemp-mintemp)
AR1
R- Squared =

13. Regression Results for Total SCE TAC
Variable
Estimated Coefficient
Standard Error
t-statistic
Intercept
weekend
min631
max631 <= 79
79 < max631 < 85
85 < max631 < 90
max631 >= 90
Day of summer(trend)
AR1
R- Squared =

14. Regression Results for SDG&E
Variable
Estimated Coefficient
Standard Error
t-statistic
Intercept
weekend
min631
0.0167
max631 <= 74
74 < max631 < 78
78 < max631 < 82
max631 >= 82
divar (daily maxtemp-mintemp)
Day of summer(trend)
AR1
R- Squared =