1. 1st November, 2016
Transport Modelling – Developing a better understanding of Short Lived Events
Marcel Pooke – Operational Modelling & Visualisation Manager
Transport For London – Surface Transport, Road Space Management

2. Introduction

3. Marcel Pooke Operational Modelling & Visualisation Manager

5. Ensuring Population/Productive Growth
Employment
1.6m
New Londoner s
0.6m
New jobs

6. Impact on Transport +22% +22% +30% Travel expected to increase by...
15% of UK’s traffic congestion is concentrated in London, on just 1,500 km of the country’s 400,000km of road
Travel expected to increase by... + 1 %
Congestion costs the London £5bn a year
Veh kms
2015
2031
+22%
+22%
+30%

7. What is a Model?
A simplified representation of a part of the real world
Our models emulate the movement of goods vehicles, taxis, buses, cyclists, cars and pedestrians through the network
Using our knowledge of the network, we replicate real-life conditions in our models to test future scenarios and predict outcomes

8. Why do we need models? We need models to... Perform analysis:8
Why do we need models?
We need models to...
Perform analysis:
Without impacts on street
Before any work is done
To plan for contingency situations
Ensure that we balance the needs of all road users
Help us to predict the impact of schemes in the future
Enable us to clearly communicate
Maximise the benefits of a scheme

9. How do we understand these challenges over a short term horizon?
What is a short term horizon?
What are these short lived events?
Why is it important to be able to quantify?
1 day, 5 days, 30 days
Emergency Roadworks, Planned Closures,
As congestion/delay/air pollution costs London’s economy every day, understand the problem

10. Traditional Transport Modelling

11. Four Stage Modelling
Demand: Population (work related, non work related)
Activities: Commuting, Leisure, Business Based trips
Destination: Shopping (leisure), Office, School, Home
Mode: Walking, Cycling, Vehicle Traffic, Public Transport
Route: Least Cost Journey (Value of Time)

12. Static Traffic Assignment Algorithmic Structure
Mins
Link Flow
Link cost based on updated Link Flow
Find Shortest Path
Update Link Flow
Stopping Criterion
If flow stops changing then stop
If for all used paths, the travel times are equal, then stop

13. Video – Parliament Square

14. Real World Solution

15. Dynamic Traffic Assignment Algorithm Framework
Mins
Link Flow
Simulation to estimate
time-varying link travel time
Find Time -Dependant Shortest Path
Update Vehicle Path Assignment
Stopping Criterion
If for all used paths, the travel times are equal, then stop
If flow stops changing then stop

16. Static Vs Dynamic User Equilibrium
Uniform demand
Uniform network capacity
Instantaneous loading and arrival at destination of all trips
Junctions are either permanently at capacity (too much demand) or under capacity
Dynamic
Demand is not uniform over the study period
Network capacity is not uniform
Trips take time to complete their journey
Different junctions become at capacity for different lengths of time and different points of time.
More realistic behaviour of traffic

17. Case Study – Story so far

18. Understanding Big Data
Big Data and CLOUD
Twitter for Incident Detection
20 Million Bluetooth Detections
A Co-Operative Network is one where all nodes (vehicles, infrastructure, people) are connected together in real time
Information is shared between nodes and informed decisions are made
30 Billion Mobile Data Sets– No Infrastructure Costs
Real Time GPS Data

19. Study Objectives
Develop a day to day route-choice model to capture the response of drivers to mid-term

20. What do we need to deliver this solution
Data:
Origins & Destination
Study Area:
Kingsway Fire (Holborn)
An Algorithm
Dynamic Assignment
Traffic Model

21. Testing Different Software

22. TOM TOM Traffic Stats
Route queries

23. Conclusions
Limited Success to date due to lack of tracking data
Need to explore other test cases across London
Explore ‘Machine Learning’ with real-time data

24. Contact Palestra House Email address: Marcel.Pooke@tfl.gov.uk
197 Blackfriars Road
London
SE1 8NJ
address:
Telephone: