1. Criteria for Non-Proliferation in the Nuclear Power Industry Richard Wilson Harvard University

2. Risks of different events
Natural Radiation
Nuclear War
Cigarettes
Asteroid
1 Million
Air Pollution
Arsenic
EPA Regulations
Nuclear Accident
Nuclear workers

3. (1) The ease of making a nuclear bomb from the facility being protected must be LESS THAN the ease of making a bomb in the absence of the facility (2) The nuclear power industry must be designed to increase rather than decrease, those open contacts that reduce the desire of a country or person to make bombs

4. (1) It is better to have a neighbor who has no bombs (2) Some powerful countries that have no bombs (Canada, Germany, Japan)

5. Nuclear industry can reduce proliferation
A. Recognize the problem
B. Understand the problem
C. Keep eyes and ears open
Ultimately, only an open society can prevent proliferation

6. Time needed to make a bomb:

7. USA: 4 years 1941- decision 1945- test

8. UK, USSR, France, China a bit slower- approximately 5 years

9. Pakistan: 15 years Iraq: greater than 8 years

10. Germany and Japan : 1 year (now)

11. Can this time be shortened with Nuclear Power?

12. Uranium Bomb U Simple Extraction U3O8 UF6 Flouorine Chemistry
Calutron Gaseous Diffusion Centrifuge Nozzler Laser
Isotope Separation
Bomb Design
Gun Compression

13. Plutonium Bomb As before with the Uranium Bomb Reactor Pu Separation
Bomb Design (Compression)
Preignition Heat

14. How Can the Nuclear Industry Reduce the Risk of Nuclear War?

15. General
Increase Prosperity

16. Use a Network to Discourage Bombs
Specific
Use a Network to Discourage Bombs

17. The Risk of Nuclear War is Large Enough that a Small Relative Increase is Unacceptable

18. By Making Material Processes Available the Nuclear Power Industry can Inevitably Increase Proliferation Risk

19. 1950’s Illusions
Nuclear Power is completely decoupled from Bomb Making
It is not possible to make a Bomb with Reactor-grade Pu

20. Reactor Grade Plutonium
Sakcharov said it is not possible to make a bomb with reactor grade Plutonium in 1977
BUT
Serber in 1942 and Mark in 1991 said this was possible
(as have Carwin and others)

21. Understand the Problem and Keep Your Eyes Open