1. When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species
Kelly Mitchell

2. Levels of Endangerment

3. Cryptic Species

4. Errors Managers Can Make
They stopped managing for something that still needs assistance
They may be managing for something that is already gone

5. Jerdon’s Courser
South Island Takahe
Mahogany Glider

6. Maximized long-term benefit
The Ultimate Goal
Find the optimal allocation of resources to actions that maximizes the net expected long- term benefit
Resources
Actions
Maximized long-term benefit

7. It’s A Trade-off
Surveying
Managing
Nothing

8. Objectives of the paper
1)Introduce Partially Observable Marchov Decision Process (POMDP) 2)Use POMDP as a tool to generate rules of thumb for optimal allocation of conservation efforts

9. Species of interest

10. Background
remaining
Critically endangered

11. Current Management
Anti-poaching efforts
Surveying

12. Management 1 of the 4 core areas 50% intensity needed
$18,744/year for management

13. Surveying and Total Budget
10% must be surveyed
$10,870/year
=$30,000

14. What are tigers worth? $175,134/year
Determine which value system to use
Donations (9)
Willingness to pay (265)
Ecotourism value

15. Chance of extinction and survey success
Managed vs Not Managed
Detectability When Surveyed vs Not
5.8%
10%
78% 1%

16. Questions
1)What is the optimal strategy? 2) When is it best to invest in management? 3) When should there be surveys? 4) When should we give up?

17. Results
Read blue line backwards. During the years of managing and surrendering as time passes our belief in its existence declines rapidly

18. Tm Ts V>Cm Tm&Ts V<Cm Tm Ts What is optimal? 175,134 30,000
Always optimal to manage first
If the value of the animal is greater than the cost you spend more time working with it.
175,134
30,000

19. When to stop surveying or managing
The smaller the value compared to cost the more time is invested in management
When an asymptote is reached it is no longer optimal to survey
Green: Tiger Blue: generic highly threatened animal
When an symtope is reached it is no longer optimal A) managing B)surveying

20. When detection is a problem
Managing
Surveying
The more valuable and difficult to detect a species is, the longer is the time of management before surveying

21. General Rules of Thumb
Managing first is always more optimal than surveying
The duration of management depends on our belief in the species existence, its value, and the urgency of its status
At a critical probability of extinction economic value has less effect
At some point it may be most optimal to surrender efforts

22. Questions?