1. Public Perceptions 2 CEDM M. Granger Morgan
with Rachel Dryden, Ann Bostrom and Wandi Bruine de Bruin
Rachel
Rachel
Ann
Wandi

2. Task 1 in the CEDM proposal
1) Develop and implement mental model and other studies to understand the prevalence of the "air pollution" model and other analogies that people use in thinking about GHGs and climate change and assess how firmly those analogies and images are established;
2) Develop, evaluate, and iteratively refine methods to communicate, and when necessary correct, mental models of the role played by GHGs in producing climate change;
3) Perform mental model and other studies to understand how people conceptualize the task of decarbonizing the different parts of the U.S. energy system; and
4) Using a variety of media and framings, develop, evaluate, and iteratively refine new methods to communicate, and when necessary correct, mental models of the nature of, and challenges posed by decarbonizing the energy system, and assess the potential effects of such information on self efficacy beliefs and motivations.

3. There is no single residence time for CO2
How a pulse of CO2 added today decays over time:
BUT, for policy purposes it is ≥100s of years.
Then, on time scales of thousands of years, it mineralizes.
Image source: IPCC AR5 WG1q

4. Does the US public know this?
Work we have recently
completed shows clearly
the answer is NO.
Paper now in review at Risk Analysis

5. We did an Allegheny county mail survey
400 addresses randomly sampled from zip codes across the Greater Pittsburgh Area
119 returned (30%)

6. Post cards a week before

7. Clearly marked envelopes
Current Resident
Address

8. Survey and incentive enclosed
Mail back envelope

9. Sample demographics
Summary statistics for Pennsylvania and MTurk study samples
Sample
Allegheny County
MTurk US
Female
55%
52%
49%
51%
Mean age
56* 41
36.6
36.8
Education
96% finished high school
44% completed college
21% completed graduate training -
88% finished high school
59% some college
33% completed college
12% completed graduate training
Political affiliation
55% D
28% R
17% I
60% D
27% R
13% I
46% D
19% R
35% I
47% D
41% R
12% I
* sample mean age is statistically higher than Allegheny County’s mean age

10. Two key parallel questions
We defined air pollution as:
“Common air pollution (that is pollution like smog, oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, organic gases, and fine particles.”
One question in the air pollution section read:
One question in the air pollution section read:

11. Survey content Four sections 1. Air pollution 2. Carbon dioxide
3. Electricity
4. Climate change
Question types
True-false
Ranking & value attribution
Multiple choice
Degree of agreement
Demographic
Sections 1 and 2 were alternated to minimize order effects (we found none).

12. Ann also ran an MTurk study that used the identical questions about atmospheric lifetimes. The recruiting message was vague and did not mention climate change or air pollution. She obtained 1,013 responses.

13. Average results

14. Individual by individual results

15. “Less than a few percent of the common air pollution/
carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere here in the United States has come from places that are thousands of miles away.”
Carbon Dioxide
Air Pollution

16. Next steps

17. You’ve probably all seen our “bathtub model”

18. We are working to come up with others
But folks do pretty well explaining this one
Nobody could explain what happens in this one
Imagine that the water is carbon dioxide and the container is the atmosphere.
What will happen over time?
Rachel is now exploring this one animated.

19. In addition to moving on…
…to address the other steps we outlined in Task 1 of our proposal we are also beginnining to think about two other related topics.
FEMA flood map for the Susquehanna river near West Pittston, PA. The blue shaded areas on the east and west banks of the river are high risk. The dark gray areas beyond the blue areas are at moderate risk. The areas outside of the shaded areas are not expected to be impacted by a 100-year flood.
1. Developing better strategies than “100 year event” formulations for things like floods when statistics are not stationary

20. 2. Communicating about attribution
We expect to have more to report on all these topics next year.
National Academies, 2016

21. Thanks