2. Looking for the Yellow Brick Road
The 2015 Economy
Looking for the Yellow Brick Road
Bruce Yandle

3. South Carolina & the Nation
Are We on the Yellow Brick Road?
Optimism & Complications

4. 4.48%
2.39%

5. 2.39%

6. S.C. Population Growth, 1990 - 2010 88.0%-41.0% 20% - 13% Negative
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bamberg
Union
Allendale
Williamsburg
Marion
Chester
Calhoun
Abbeville
Saluda
Barnwell
Hampton
Orangeburg
Lee
Darlington
Sumter
Marlboro
Fairfield
Dillon
Laurens
Chesterfield
Mccormick
Colleton
Clarendon
Greenwood
Cherokee
Edgefield
Newberry
Pickens
Florence
Oconee
Jasper
Aiken
Georgetown
Anderson
Spartanburg
Kershaw
Charleston
Richland
Lexington
Greenville
Berkeley
Lancaster
Beaufort
Horry
Dorchester
York
88.0%-41.0%
20% - 13%
Negative
40% - 21%
12% - 0.1%

7. Employment Growth, 4Q2012 - 4Q2013 17.6%-6% 2.4% - 1.3% Negative
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bamberg
Union
Allendale
Williamsburg
Marion
Chester
Calhoun
Abbeville
Saluda
Barnwell
Hampton
Orangeburg
Lee
Darlington
Sumter
Marlboro
Fairfield
Dillon
Laurens
Chesterfield
Mccormick
Colleton
Clarendon
Greenwood
Cherokee
Edgefield
Newberry
Pickens
Florence
Oconee
Jasper
Aiken
Georgetown
Anderson
Spartanburg
Kershaw
Charleston
Richland
Lexington
Greenville
Berkeley
Lancaster
Beaufort
Horry
Dorchester
York
17.6%-6%
2.4% - 1.3%
Negative
5.1% - 2.6%
1.1% - 0.1%

14. U.S. Average 1.7%.

18. I think we are on the Yellow Brick Road…, but I am a bit nervous!
How’s the U.S. economy doing?
I think we are on the Yellow Brick Road…, but I am a bit nervous!

19. 3.14%

20. U.S. GDP GROWTH
Recent Forecasts
2015
Conference Board %
Congressional Budget Office
IMF
Moody’s Analytics
Federal Reserve Bank of Phila 3.4
Federal Reserve Board
Wells Fargo

21. Expect 2.5% to 3.0% real GDP growth, 2014-2018. Recession in 2019.
3.14%

22. The Sharing Economy

25. More Reasons for Optimism

31. 1970s
1980s
2008
1990s

32. QUESTIONS?