1. South Ayrshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
South Ayrshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for South Ayrshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group (SLAED).
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
South Ayrshire covers the southern part of Ayrshire and borders onto Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire and North Ayrshire
Tourism and leisure and the public sector are key employment sectors
High levels of out-commuting
Strongest performing local authority in the Ayrshire Region and performance close to national average on many key economic indicators

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base in line with the Scottish trend rate (7.3%) in 2015
230 new businesses including: (+35) Professional and Scientific, (+30) Construction and (+15) Health
98% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
55 businesses employ more than 50 people
301 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
12.0% self employment in South Ayrshire, higher than the national figure (10.8%)
In 2015, number of Growth Sector businesses grew by 0.7% to 1,500, although fewer businesses are in Growth Sectors compared to Scotland
24% of total employment in Growth Sectors (compared to 28% nationally) in 2015
Higher concentration of businesses in Food and Drink and Sustainable Tourism, lower than average number in Creative Industries in 2015
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 112,400 in 2015
2.1% of Scotland’s total population
Small decrease in population over the year (-0.1%), against a small rise nationally (+0.5%)
Over the past ten years ( ), South Ayrshire saw a static population with no growth, compared to +5% growth nationally
As with the national picture, there has been significant growth by those over the age of 65 (+20%), although there has been steeper decline across the other age groups than nationally, including a 4% fall in the working age population
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to fall by 2% (-2,750), set against a 9% rise Scotland wide, and the working age population expected to fall by 18% (- 12,700), compared to a 4% fall nationally

11. Workforce Trends Total employment in South Ayrshire in 2014 = 45,500
-0.7% decrease since 2013, in contrast to growth in the Ayrshire Region (2.0%), national (3.2%) and Great Britain (2.7%) trend
In 2015, 42% work in higher level occupations, in line with the national figure (42%)
76% of employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
29% of employees worked part-time in 2015, a slight fall from 30% in 2014, however above national average (26%)
3.8% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, lower than the national figure (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in South Ayrshire was 73% in 2015, a 1ppt rise from the previous year, and in line with the national rate
68% of employed residents work in South Ayrshire
17% work elsewhere in the Ayrshire Region
15% work outside the region
Key areas for out-communing are Glasgow City (7%) and Renfrewshire (2%)
The unemployment rate in South Ayrshire was the same as the national average (6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -1.7ppts from 2014 which was greater than the national decline
(-0.4ppts) over the same period
91% of year olds in South Ayrshire are participating, and 3% are not, a slightly higher participation rate than across Scotland (90%)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
At 41%, a slightly lower proportion of working age adults in South Ayrshire hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications in 2015 than in Scotland (43%), though this is higher than the UK (37%)
South Ayrshire’s resident and workplace earnings averages (£554 and £556 respectively), both are higher than the national levels

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 6,188, 2.2% of Scotland total
93% of school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared to 92% nationally
MA uptake increased by 4% from 2014/15 to 495
2% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular MA framework group
19% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 96% male
76% MA achievement rate 2015/16
Fife

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Ayrshire College there were 17,160 enrolments
6% of Scotland’s total
82% FE and 18% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Care, Engineering, Sport & Leisure
Part-time: Special Programmes, Engineering, Care
61% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 2,600 students at the two HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Subjects Allied to Medicine, Creative Arts and Design, Education
HE/FE data is available at Ayrshire regional level only, comprising East, North and South Ayrshire. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such a fall equates to 600 less jobs in the region by There are six sectors that are each expected to have growth of 100 jobs over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing and public sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 500 jobs and the number of jobs within public administration and defence is expected to fall by 300 jobs over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
South Ayrshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 16,400 openings within South Ayrshire from 2016 to Expansion demand is expected to result in 1,000 fewer openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 15,400 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations, with both driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer service and skilled trades occupations is also expected to rise noticeably over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. South Ayrshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The faltering jobs recovery in South Ayrshire returned in 2015, with 1,000 new jobs, or 2%, at a time of very limited jobs growth for Scotland as a whole. There had been a loss of jobs in 2014, following gains in 2013, as South Ayrshire continues to recover from the prolonged after effects of the recession. Despite the 2015 increases, there are still 4% fewer jobs than in 2009.
There were also sector shifts in There were job increases in health (+800), already the largest employment sector, plus jobs growth in accommodation & food services (+400), education (+300), arts & related (+200, transport & storage (+200) and the locally important production sector (+100). At the same time, there were losses in education (-400) and the higher value added professional, scientific & technical services (-200), as well as smaller losses in other sectors. There has been a further shift to public sector employment - and not all the new jobs in the private sector are in higher value added services.
The business base has also grown recently after lagging behind the Scotland average, and overall output has increased to above pre-recession levels. South Ayrshire has the challenge of growing private sector employment. Starting and growing local businesses is one route to achieve this.
Glasgow

20. South Ayrshire: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has not grown over the last 10 years at a time of growth for Scotland as a whole. It is forecast to fall by 2% to 2037 at a time of continued national growth, with a reduction in the working age population of 18%.
Close to the Scotland average are employed in professional occupations and higher than average proportions locally work in care and in elementary occupations. Despite a predicted fall in the number of jobs, replacement demand will create more than 16,500 openings, highest in professional and elementary roles but also in sales and care occupations.
A higher than average proportion from South Ayrshire go into Further Education from school.
The top MA frameworks by take-up are construction, health & social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism (an important employment sector), administration & related and retail & customer services. There are relatively few in engineering & energy (another important local employer), or other services (including ICT professionals), a national growth sector.
Glasgow

21. South Ayrshire: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for South Ayrshire include:
Increasing the number of local jobs. Despite recent jobs growth, numbers remain below 2009 levels.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There are fewer higher value added private sector jobs and a continued reliance on public sector employment.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors and occupations, including health, engineering, tourism, sales & customer services. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills locally is highest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as care, administration and sales. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing and skills provision must be flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this. There is a need for skills to support aspirational businesses and employers.
Glasgow