1. MBA Economic and Commercial Real Estate Finance Outlook
Presented by
Mike Fratantoni & Jamie Woodwell
Mortgage Bankers Association

2. Mortgage Bankers Association
6/18/2018
Summary of the MBA Outlook
Source: MBA Forecast –Feb 2017
Mortgage Bankers Association

3. Job Growth Still Strong in 2016
Mortgage Bankers Association
6/18/2018
Job Growth Still Strong in 2016
In sharp contrast to that gloomy outlook, job market indicators are showing real strength in the US economy. The US added an average of 228,000 jobs a month in 2015 and ended the year with unemployment below 5 percent. Also very important for housing demand
Source: BLS
Mortgage Bankers Association

4. Rates Expected to Increase
Source: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, MBA

5. Holdings of Commercial Banks
Source: Federal Reserve

6. Snapshot of Today’s Market
Mortgage Bankers Association
6/18/2018
Snapshot of Today’s Market
When Similar
Indicator
Level
Date
Apartment Vacancy Rate
7.4%
7.1%
1984
Census
Office Vacancy Rate
15.8%
15.2%
2009
REIS
Office Property Cap Rate
6.7%
6.5%
2007
Real Capital Analytics
Multifamily Property Cap Rate
5.6% --
Never
Multifamily Units Under Construction
602,000
901,000
1973
Life Company Mortgage Rate
3.6%
ACLI
Mortgage Bankers Originations
~$500 billion
$508 billion
MBA
Total Multifamily Mortgage Originations
~$260 billion
UW CMBS LTV
60%
58%
2010
JPMorgan
Moody's Stressed CMBS LTV
113%
112%
JPMorgan, Moody's
Bank 90+ Day Mortgage Delinquency Rate
0.66%
0.65%
MBA, FDIC
Mortgage Debt Outstanding
$2.9 trillion
Mortgage Bankers Association

7. Mortgage Bankers Association
6/18/2018
Contact Information & MBA Resources
Mike Fratantoni, Ph.D.
Chief Economist & Senior Vice President | Research and Industry Technology
President, MISMO
Jamie Woodwell
Vice President | Commercial Real Estate Research
Research & Economics
MBA Research:
RIHA:
MISMO:
Mortgage Bankers Association