1. Why is the Global Population Increasing?
Chapter 2 key issue 2
Why is the Global Population Increasing?

2. About 82 million people are added to the population of the world annually.

3. Like population itself, POPULATION GROWTH is not uniformly distributed.

4. Measuring Population Growth
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – total number of live births expected for every 1,000 people (year) - Crude Death Rate (CDR) – total number of expected deaths for every 1,000 people (year) = Natural Increase Rate (NIR) – percentage by which a population grows in a year. CBR - CDR = NIR

5. Global Birth Rates (CBR) Highest in Africa and South/Southwest Asia
FIGURE 2-11 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR ) The global distribution of CBRs parallels that of NIRs. The countries with the highest CBRs are concentrated in Africa and Southwest Asia.
Highest in Africa and South/Southwest Asia

6. High in Africa, but also in many more developed countries
GLOBAL DEATH RATE (CDR)
FIGURE 2-13 CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR) The global pattern of CDRs varies from those for the other demographic variables already mapped in this chapter. The demographic transition helps to explain the distinctive distribution of CDRs.
High in Africa, but also in many more developed countries

7. GLOBAL NATURAL INCREASE (NIR)
FIGURE 2-10 NATURAL INCREASE RATE The world average is currently about 1.2 percent. The countries with the highest NIRs are concentrated in Africa and Southwest Asia.
Many developing countries have high NIR, while developed countries are very low

8. NIR does NOT account for immigration/emigration, only births v. deaths

9. …But that’s for next chapter!
Many developed countries would either stay flat or actually shrink in population, if not for IMMIGRATION

10. Other Important Metrics
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)
Average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15–49)
World TFR is 2.5
TFR often exceeds 5 in sub-Saharan Africa, while at 2/less in nearly all European countries.

11. GLOBAL FERTILITY (TFR) Like CBR, highest in SS Africa & SE/SW Asia
FIGURE 2-12 TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)
As with NIRs and CBRs, the countries with the highest TFRs are concentrated in Africa and Southwest Asia.
Like CBR, highest in SS Africa & SE/SW Asia

12. Other Important Metrics
Infant Death Rate (IDR)
Total deaths (before first year) per 1,000 live births
AKA Infant Mortality (IMR)

13. GLOBAL INFANT MORTALITY (IDR)
Highest in SS Africa & all of South Asia; indicator of level of development

14. Summary of Patterns Developing Countries Higher rates of… Developed
Natural increase
Crude birth
Total fertility
Infant mortality
Developed
Countries
Lower rates of…
Natural increase
Crude birth
Total fertility
Infant mortality

15. If this held true, the world pop’n would be 10 billion right now!
DOUBLING TIME
The time it would take for a population to double at current natural growth rates.
Used to project future population
2015 NIR (1.2%): 54 years.
1963 NIR of (2.2%): 35 years.
If this held true, the world pop’n would be 10 billion right now!

16. DOUBLING TIME is volatile because even small changes in NIR can have major impact on projected doubling times.

17. Sources of Pop’n Data United States Census Bureau
Federal body responsible for producing data about the American people and economy

18. Official pop’n count conducted every 10 years (on years ending in ‘0’)
The CENSUS
Official pop’n count conducted every 10 years (on years ending in ‘0’)
Purpose is to count every person in the United States, and to collect data about them

19. The CENSUS is controversial because-
NONPARTICIPATION
EXTRAPOLATION
Not everyone can be counted – homeless, illegal aliens, etc- and not everyone thinks they SHOULD be
Not everyone can be counted, so ‘extrapolations,’ or educated guesses, are made for certain populations

20. Sources of Pop’n Data Population Reference Bureau - nonprofit
Releases Annual Report-
World Population Data Sheet
 presents data from 200 countries on important demographic and health metrics

21. Population Structure
Much can be learned by analyzing the age and sex structure of a country’s population
A special bar graph known as a POPULATION PYRAMID can visually display a country’s distinctive population structure.

22. Populations structures vary by country…

23. …and also from place to place within a country!
FIGURE 2-14 POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND SELECTED U.S. COMMUNITIES Laredo has a broad pyramid, indicating higher percentages of young people and fertility rates. Lawrence has a high percentage of people in their twenties because it is the home of the University of Kansas. Naples has a high percentage of elderly people, especially women, so its pyramid is upside down.

24. Issues in population pyramids
DEPENDENCY RATIO
The number of people who are too young/old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years.
Ages 0-14 and 65+ are Dependents.
Larger ratios mean high financial burden on working class, who must pay for care of the young/old.

25. The pyramid of Ghana has a heavy YOUTH BULGE – a large proportion of young dependents

26. Sweden’s pyramid is healthier, with a strong working population to support dependents

27. Issues in population pyramids
SEX RATIO
Defined as the number of males per 100 females in the population
Developed countries have more females, as they live 7 years longer on average.
Many developing countries have more men, because male babies are preferred

28. GLOBAL SEX RATIO
FIGURE 2-16 SEX RATIO A map of the percentage of people over age 65 would show a reverse pattern, with the highest percentages in Europe and the lowest in Africa and Southwest Asia.

29. Sometimes imbalances are due to historical factors
Sometimes imbalances are due to historical factors. WHY MIGHT MORE ELDERLY RUSSIANS BE WOMEN?

30. Population Pyramids allow us to visualize data and to assess demographic issues in a country

33. Signs of trouble…..

34. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Australia Netherlands Austria New Zealand Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Portugal
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States