1. Col Randy Larsen, USAF (Ret.)
The
Biological Warfare
Threat
Col Randy Larsen, USAF (Ret.)
A Public Service Research Institute Serving The National Interest Since 1958

2. Determining the Threat
Capability X
Vulnerability X
Intent =
THREAT

3. Biological Warfare
Nov. 16, 1997: Defense Secretary William Cohen holds up a five-pound bag of sugar on ABC's This Week. A similar amount of Anthrax could destroy half the population of Washington.

4. Lethality
With ideal conditions (a clear, calm night) a single aircraft, using an efficient aerosol generator to dispense 100 kg of anthrax spores, could adequately cover a 300 km2 area and inflict between 1,000,000 and 3,000,000 deaths.
OUTLINE OF WASHINGTON, DC
300 km2
1,000,000 – 3,000,000
Source: US Congress Office of Technology Assessment, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks, August 1993, pg. 54.

5. Believers
The one that scares me to death, perhaps even more so than tactical nuclear weapons, and the one we have the least capability against is biological weapons.
General Colin Powell, 1993
Not just Randy Larsen, OTA, Sam Nunn, Colin Powell Powell slide
Blank slide Nobody has ever used the stuff
Source: Testimony of Gen. Colin Powell, US Congress, House Committee on Armed Services, Hearings on National Defense Authorization Act FYI H.R. 2401, 103rd Cong., 1st session., H201–33 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1993): 112.

6. Believers (Cont.)
Bioterrorism is the single most dangerous threat to U.S. national security in the foreseeable future.
Not just Randy Larsen, OTA, Sam Nunn, Colin Powell Powell slide
Blank slide Nobody has ever used the stuff
R. James Woolsey, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency,

7. Believers (Cont.) Dr. Joshua Lederberg
Today one man can make war. A lucky bio buffoon could kill 400,000 people.
Dr. Joshua Lederberg
Not just Randy Larsen, OTA, Sam Nunn, Colin Powell Powell slide
Blank slide Nobody has ever used the stuff
For more information: Visit the National Library of Medicine's Profiles in Science website on Dr. Lederberg:

8. Soviet Union’s BW Program
Colonel (Dr.)
Kanjatan Alibekov
Dr. Ken Alibek

9. Live Agent Tests

10. Credible Threat?

11. Human “Testing” 96 People Infected 66 Died of Pulmonary Anthrax
Aerosol Release of
Less Than One Gram of Anthrax Spores
Sverdlovsk
April 2, 1979
96 People Infected
66 Died of Pulmonary Anthrax
Villages With Numerous Cases of Animal Anthrax
10 Kilometers

12. Aerial Dissemination

13. Gulf War Threat

14. Force Disposition

15. Atmospheric Conditions

16. Bio Vulnerability
When you hear that introduction, you might wonder how I ended up being labeled as a BW expert. MASH story.*
Topic is suppose to cover chem and bio. Chem is not a WMD. ORI story. Chem may slow us down and provide limited, small scale use for terrorists, but not a WMD and not a significant threat to US national security
4% of casualties in WWI, 168 tons chlorine at Ypres 1915, 11 tons phosgene released during explosion in Hamburg, 1928, 11 KIA/WIA

17. Biological Weapons Agent Acquisition Production Weaponization Delivery
BW weapons slide ICBM to F-150 strategic attack, asymmetric attack, terrorists attack, detection, protection, who did it cruise missile attack
BW CW differs: BW/CW slide Type hazard (not dermally active), symptoms (immediate vs hours), detection (none other than carbon-based)* contamination (little) lethality
March 3, 1999: Dr. William Patrick attempts to illustrate how easy it is to launch biological agents at a House committee meeting.

18. Applied to this Equation
Capability X
Vulnerability X
Intent =
THREAT

19. Respond vs. React

20. Education
First Responders
Meteorological Conditions
Defense Against Low-Tech
Low-Cost Defense