1. The Sky’s Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production
Oil Change International, in collaboration with:
350.org, Amazon Watch, APMDD, AYCC, Bold Alliance, Christian Aid, Earthworks, Équiterre, Global Catholic Climate Movement, HOMEF, Indigenous Environmental Network, IndyAct, Rainforest Action Network, and Stand.earth
September 2016

2. The Paris goals
Holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels;
Pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

3. Emissions pathways
Sources: Rogelj et al, IPCC scenario database

4. Carbon budgets
Peak warming is determined by the cumulative amount of CO2 emitted over all time.
For a given temperature target, there is a total budget for how much can be extracted and burned.

5. Fossil fuel reserves vs carbon budgets
Many will be familiar with this – FF reserves massively exceed what the world can afford to burn. This raises the question of WHICH (which countries’) reserves belong in the green box vs the dashed red boxes
These are 66% chance of 2C (since it’s a hard limit) and 50% chance of 1.5C (since it’s more of a goal in the Paris Agreement) – NOTE NOT V PRECAUTIONARY ODDS!
2°C
1.5°C
Sources: Rystad Energy, World Energy Council, IPCC; Global Carbon Project

6. Developed reserves vs carbon budgets
Implication: no more can be developed, and some have to be closed down early. Developing new fields and mines would make the problem even more difficult
1.5°C
Sources: Rystad Energy, IEA, World Energy Council, IPCC, Global Carbon Project

7. Managed decline

8. Recommendations
No new fossil fuel extraction or transportation infrastructure should be built, and governments should grant no new permits for them.
Some fields and mines – primarily in rich countries – should be closed before fully exploiting their resources, and financial support should be provided for non-carbon development in poorer countries.
This does not mean stopping using all fossil fuels overnight. Governments and companies should conduct a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry and ensure a just transition for the workers and communities that depend on it.

9. The front lines Undeveloped coal reserves by country
Sources: World Energy Council, IEA, IPCC

10. The front lines Undeveloped coal reserves by country
Sources: World Energy Council, IEA, IPCC

11. The front lines

12. Developed countries still on coal

13. Production from existing fields
Oil
Gas

14. Oil and gas vs clean energy
If we allowed production from existing oil and gas fields only, and phased out coal (except for use in steel), we’d need 50% RE by 2035 and 80% by RE – this is achievable with political will
Sources: IEA, Jacobson et al, Rystad Energy, Oil Change International analysis

15. What about other sources of CO2?
Sources: Rystad Energy, IEA, World Energy Council, IPCC, Global Carbon Project

16. What about methane and other GHGs?
Carbon budget approach does not apply to short-lived GHGs.
Budgets are for CO2 only, calculated based on assumptions about emissions of other GHGs.

17. The Paris goals
Holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels;
Pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

18. Carbon budgets

19. Definitions
Reserves: The best estimate of the most likely amount that would be extracted, if there were no new exploration, no new technology, an assumed most-likely price scenario, and no climate or other restrictions.
Developed reserves: The portion of reserves for which investment has already taken place, for which no new major investment decision is required:
A field or mine;
A development phase;
A frack well.

20. Sources Assumptions Oil and gas: Rystad UCube
Coal: International Energy Agency
Assumptions
No CCS
Price base case
Politically rather than economically optimised

21. Recommendations
No new fossil fuel extraction or transportation infrastructure should be built, and governments should grant no new permits for them.
Some fields and mines – primarily in rich countries – should be closed before fully exploiting their resources, and financial support should be provided for non-carbon development in poorer countries.
This does not mean stopping using all fossil fuels overnight. Governments and companies should conduct a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry and ensure a just transition for the workers and communities that depend on it.

22. Why the supply side?

23. The Sky’s Limit: Why the Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production
Oil Change International, in collaboration with:
350.org, Amazon Watch, APMDD, AYCC, Bold Alliance, Christian Aid, Earthworks, Équiterre, Global Catholic Climate Movement, HOMEF, Indigenous Environmental Network, IndyAct, Rainforest Action Network, and Stand.earth
September 2016

24. Backup

25. Reserves uncertainty Economics/technology: assume no change
Geological knowledge:
Proven: P90
Probable: P50
Expectation: mean
Possible: P10

26. What are developed reserves?

27. What are developed reserves?

29. Why the supply side?

30. Infrastructure lock-in

31. Stranded assets

32. The pace of transition