1. RES OPPORTUNITIES IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE Dr
RES OPPORTUNITIES IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE Dr. Dimitris Papastefanakis Director of Division of Development Programs CRES Vasilis Papandreou Mech. Engineer Division of Development Programs CRES
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

2. The common USAID-HellenicAid SYNENERGY project
Kicked Off: May 2008
Duration: 24 months
Budget: 8 million € (Hellenic Aid 50%, USAID 50%)
Nine E.C. Countries:
Albania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia, FYROM, Moldavia, Montenegro, Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine
Implementing bodies: IRG, CRES
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

3. The common USAID-HellenicAid SYNENERGY project
Objectives
Promotion of the use of RES for electricity and heat production
Promotion of Energy Efficiency in residential and public buildings
Promotion of scientific and business cooperation for RES and E.E.
Support for the development of institutional and legislative framework for supporting RES and EE investments
Development and strengthening of regional RES and EE technologies and services market
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

4. The common USAID-HellenicAid SYNENERGY project
Four areas of activity:
Activity 1: Regional assessment of RES
Activity 2: E.E. in residential and public buildings
Activity 3: Strategic planning for RES and E.E.
Activity 4: Capacity building and institutional network development
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

5. Activity 1 – RES assessment
Task 1
Analysis of existing legal, institutional and financing framework for RES
Task 2
Assessment of natural and technical RES potential
TASK 3
Assessment of economical RES potential
TASK 4
Identification of investment opportunities – feasibility case studies
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

6. The Region Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia FYROM Moldova
Montenegro
Serbia
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

7. The Region - Statistics
Country
Surface
103 km2
Population
million
GDP
billion US $
GDP growth %
Albania
28.7
3.18
10.6 6
Bosnia - Herzegovina
51.2
3.78
15.1 7
Croatia
56.5
4.44
51.3
FYROM
25.7
2.04
7.5 5
Moldova
33.8
3.79
4.3 3
Montenegro
14.0
0.60
3.6 8
Serbia
88.4
7.39
41.5
Total
298.3
25.22
133.9 ~7
Source: World Bank
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

8. RES Status – Electricity Production
Country
Electricity Generation
Electricity Consumption
RES
Large Hydro
Small Hydro1
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Albania
5443
3601
5373 87 -
Bosnia - Herzegovina
12718
7680
5455
137
Croatia
12459
14384
6438
108 14 10
FYROM
6942
6227
1492 64
Moldova
3865
4927 63
0.42
Serbia & Montenegro
36474
25663
12032 54
Total
77901
62482
30853
450
Source: IEA. Data for All figures in GWh.
1 Data from various sources (GWh); 2 Estimates
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

9. RES Status – Heat Production
Country
Solid Biomass & Waste
Biogas
Solar Thermal
Geo-thermal
Albania
9.63 -
0.084
Bosnia – Herzegovina
7.62
Croatia
14.74
FYROM
6.32
Moldova
2.85
Serbia & Montenegro
33.58
Total
74.74
Source: IEA. Data for All figures in PJ
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

10. Electricity Demand Forecast
Annual growth rates from 4% to 17%
Growth rates may be more moderate due to
Energy Efficiency measures
Fuel switch for heating in residential sector
Still demand is growing so are the needs for sustainable electricity production
Country
Demand
2005
Forecast
Source
Albania
3601
(2015)
National Energy Strategy, 2003
Bosnia - Herzegovina
7680
15880
(2020)
Energy Sector Study, 2008
Croatia
14384
(2030)
Energy Sector Development Strategy,
FYROM
6227 NA
Moldova
4927
Serbia
25663
31424
(2010)
Energy Demand Forecast (SEEA)
All figures in GWh
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

11. RES Strategies Country Strategies Albania
National Energy Strategy (under review); Duty exemption; Fee exemption for SHPP; Fixed price for HPP; Feed in Tariffs for SHPP; Regulation for GO/GC adopted in 2007; Guarantee of purchase for RES
Bosnia - Herzegovina
Favorable RES treatment; Feed in tariff based on medium voltage price; Legislative measures needed
Croatia
National target 5.8% in 2010; Feed in tariff system; GO/GC system to be adopted; Guarantee of purchase for RES
FYROM
Feed in tariff system for SHPP, wind and biomass; Guarantee of purchase; GO/GC system to be adopted
Moldova
Law on Renewables passed in June 2007; Guarantee of purchase; Feed in tariff system to be approved; EE Fund to be established
Montenegro
Strategy for SHPP adopted in 2006; Priority to RES producers
Serbia
Feed in tariff to be introduced early 2009; Environmental Fund; Amendments on Energy Law expected.
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

12. Kyoto Protocol Country Status Remarks DNA establishment
Emission target
Albania
Accession
non Annex I
YES -
Bosnia - Herzegovina NO
Croatia
Ratification
Annex I 5%
FYROM
Moldova
Montenegro
Serbia
Source: UNFCC as of 13/05/2008
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

13. RES - Albania No wind installations - No reliable data
Promising site along the Adriatic coast:
average speed 4-6 m/sec (10m height)
400 GWh/year envisaged in the future
Hydro : Large hydro produce 98% of
total electricity
SHPP:
Existing Capacity 14 MW (83 plants – 45 private)
41 new sites ~140 MW
Biomass : No modern installations – no reliable data
~ 6 Mtoe of wood
~130 toe agricultural residues
~340 toe biogas form animal waste
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

14. RES - Bosnia & Herzegovina
No wind installations – No complete wind atlas
Preliminary estimates:
2000MW technical potential
600 MW economic viable
Ongoing measurements
18 locations at the south west
average speed 6-7 m/sec
Capacity factor up to 32%
SHPP : Economic potential estimated at 5,6 GW (!)
Existing Capacity 31 MW
Over 280 MW planned. Some already under construction
Biomass : No installations
Over 1 million tonnes wood residues
Over 3.8 million tonnes agricultural residues
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

15. RES - Croatia ~ 45 MW of wind turbines in operation
Wind atlas under preparation (CARDS)
Good wind potential along the Adriatic Coast
Preliminary data: 1300 MW technical
potential (new estimates up to 4 GW)
Target of 400 MW wind by 2030
SHPP : Economic potential estimation 177 MW
(77 locations)
Existing Capacity 33 MW (13 plants)
Over 280 MW planned. Some already under construction
Biomass : 512 MW industrial heating – 2 MW electricity (as of 2005)
Total potential 11 TWh (BIOEN)
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

16. RES - FYROM No wind installation – No data
Wind atlas under preparation (?)
SHPP : Great interest (400 requests !)
Existing Capacity 30 MW
Potential capacity 258 MW (study 1982)
Concession for 41 locations (2007)
Calls every 6 months (30-40 plants)
Biomass:
No data on potential
Some industrial uses for heating exist
A CDM project under preparation (Biomass to Energy)
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

17. RES - Moldova No wind installations – Lack of reliable data
Early studies did not show wind
potential - New studies indicate locations
with average speed ~7m/sec at 50 m
SHPP : Significant potential ~200 GWh/a
Existing Capacity 141 kW
Some 22 MW are readily available
Target to 2010 is 36 MW
Biomass:
Estimated potential ~820 ktoe wood & wood waste
Only small scale projects
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

18. RES - Serbia & Montenegro
Wind: No wind installations – No wind atlas
Ongoing measurements from private companies -
indication of locations with average speed
6-7 m/sec (10 m)
Estimated wind potential figures range from
1 to 11 GW
SHPP : Significant potential – over 900
possible locations ~ 500 MW potential (!)
Existing Capacity ~ 5MW
21 SHPP ready for concession in early 2009 – more to follow
Feasibility studies needed
Biomass: High priority RES
Estimated wood potential ~1 Mtoe
Estimated potential from agriculture ~1.5 Mtoe
Pellet production ~ 1 million tones of wood residues
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

19. RES Development Barriers
Lack of complete - reliable data
Not defined RES targets and strategies (in some countries)
Inadequate regulatory – legislative framework
Inadequate implementation of existing RES strategies and plans
Administrative issues (complicated licensing procedure)
Grid access
Lack of skilled personnel (in some countries)
Delays on Kyoto mechanisms implementation
Insufficient funding mechanisms
Uncertain investment environment
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

20. RES Opportunities
Excellent potential for small hydro and biomass, promising for wind
Green certificates (for eligible countries)
Kyoto mechanisms (for eligible countries)
Athens Treaty – binding political targets for E.C. member countries
Interconnection
Environmental protection
RES development
More stable economic – political environment
Creation of special energy funds
RES market in its beginning – Time for dynamic entry
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

21. SYNENERGY project contribution
Stocktaking report on RES (Dec. 2008)
Presentation of report to country representatives and stakeholders (Jan. 2009)
Identification of priority areas for each country
In depth assessment of priority areas (technical - economic potential)
Feasibility case studies for specific RES investments
Regulatory and legislative recommendations and support
Capacity building and institutional network development
Dissemination through workshops
Follow up project (?)
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008

22. Center of Renewable Energy Sources
THANK YOU
Further Communication:
Center of Renewable Energy Sources
19th km Marathonos Av., Pikermi –
Vasilis Papandreou
Mech. Engineer Division of Development Programs CRES
SYNENERGY web-site available soon
Black Sea Energy Policy Conference
09 October 2008