1. US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience
Workshop on Development and Application
of Downscaling Climate Projections
Pune, 7-9th March, 2017
Dr. Nitish Dogra, MD, MPH
Fulbright Fellow ( )
Consultant, UCHAI

2. Outline
Fulbright Work
UCHAI
National Database
Case Study

4. Fulbright Work

6. National Database

7. Rationale Why set up a climate and health database?
Climate change is an emerging issue but in the years ahead the problem is expected to increase.
Baseline is essential to compare the natural course as also the effectiveness of interventions.
Climate and health gradients will vary across districts and climate zones.
National burden of disease estimates not possible without adequate number of sites (minimum 60).’
Future estimates requirement

8. Data Requirements Historical Predictive Projection
Last 10 year daily rainfall, temperature (max, min and mean), humidity
Predictive
7 day temperature and rainfall 
Projection
Temperature and rainfall
How far into the future , 2025 and
beyond?

9. Aim of this Group work 3) Site
Meteorological station in vicinity of Community Health Centre (since rainfall cannot generally be extrapolated beyond 15 km

10. Aim of this Group work 4) Approach
A) Community Medicine MD thesis through grant contest
B) Through State Health Program officers
C) Via UCHAI researchers
D) IMS collaboration
E) NCDC and IMD collaboration

11. Time Period
5) Time period
3 years

12. Challenge1: Weather data external validity
Health data from district will not coincide with
historical station data

13. Solution1: Weather data external validity
Collect data at CHC level

14. Challenge 2: Health data external validity
Besides government health facility
Private practitioners
Indigenous system
RMPs (quacks)
Treatment at home

15. Solution 2: Health data external validity
Community based prospective cohort studies at each of India’s climate zones
Best to use existing sites like Vadu at KEM

16. CASE STUDY
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17. Site Selection TWO ADJACENT DISTRICTS NEAR GURGAON
(MEWAT AND REWARI IN NORTH INDIA)
Same climate zone (semi-arid)
Sensitivity differs radically (women, children, poor)
Barriers to adaptation are also markedly at variance
Hence best place to study how climate change impacts health
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18. Background Guidance document on V&A
Workplan Presentation: 2010 PAHO/WHO Global
Workshop in Costa Rica
WHO SEARO supported and guided project
First of it’s kind exercise in South-East Asia
Climate-proofing of interventions
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19. Objectives
To assess the baseline vulnerability for climate-sensitive diseases at the local level in India
To construct a pilot tool for assessment of health
vulnerability to climate change at the sub-national
level in India (SEPARATE STUDY)
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20. Scope Diarrhoeal diseases Vector-borne diseases Heat stress
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21. Methods:Quantitative
Time-series analysis
Household survey
GIS
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22. Results:Quantitative
Time-series analysis
MEWAT: 1o rise in temp= 3.2% rise in diarrhoea
REWARI: 1o rise in temp= 4.3% rise in diarrhoea
Household survey
Community based study with contrasting findings
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23. Results: Qualitiative
Key informant interviews
Focus group discussions (FGDs)
o Both the above constitute additional evidence
bringing out health access issues.
o Provide a clue to the apparently contradictory
findings of the time-series analysis.
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24. Discussion Prospective time-series studies required.
Detailed household surveys may not be feasible.
GIS methods need to be evolved.
Qualitiative methods apart from FGD and KII.
Mixed methods with community studies essential.
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26. Thank-You
Source: