1. Clackmannanshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
Clackmannanshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Clackmannanshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Bordered by Stirling, Fife and Perth & Kinross
One of the smallest local authorities in Scotland in population terms, with just over 50,000 residents
Areas of deprivation, with below average workplace earnings and house prices
High reliance on public sector and production employment

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base exceeds the Scottish trend rate (9.3% v. 7.3%) in 2015
95 new businesses including: Business Administration and Support Services (+20), Information and Communication (+10) and Manufacturing (+10)
99% of businesses are small or micro. 10 businesses employ 50+
218 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
Relatively low levels of self employment (7.2%) compared to nationally (10.8%)
In 2015, the number of Growth Sector businesses grew by 1% to 450, 40% of all businesses
21% of employment in Growth Sectors (compared to 28% nationally) in 2015
Higher concentration of Growth Sector businesses in Sustainable Tourism and Financial and Business Services than nationally in 2015
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 51,360 in 2015
1.0% of Scotland’s total population
Small increase in population over the year (+0.3%), slightly below the national growth rate (+0.5%)
Between Clackmannanshire saw below average population growth (+4%, compared to +5% nationally)
As across Scotland, growth was strongly driven by those aged 65+ (+33%), while there was marked decline in 0-15 year olds
Forecast Population Growth, :
Total population forecast to fall by 2% (-1,200) against strong growth Scotland wide
Working age population to fall by 22% in contrast to a modest fall of 4% nationally

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in Clackmannanshire = 14,900
2.1% change over Higher than across Forth Valley (1.7%) but lower than nationally (3.1%)
In 2015, 34% work in higher level occupations, below Scottish average of 42%
74% work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally in 2015
23% of those in employment work part-time, fall from 26% since 2014, and below national average (26%)
5.4% are in non-permanent employment in 2015, in line with Scotland (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Clackmannanshire was 72% in 2015, 5ppts higher than the previous year, but below the national rate (73%)
44% of employed residents work in Clackmannanshire
37% work elsewhere in the region
19% work outside the region
Key areas for out-commuting include Stirling (29%), Falkirk (9%) and Fife (5%)
The unemployment rate in Clackmannanshire was below the national average (4% v. 6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -6.1ppts from 2014 which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts) over the same period
88% of year olds in Clackmannanshire are participating in 2016, and 9% are not, a lower participation rate than across Scotland (90%)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
In 2015, a lower proportion of working age adults in Clackmannanshire (34%) held SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland and the UK (43% and 37% respectively)
Workplace earnings in Clackmannanshire sit below the national average (£491), while residents earnings (£547) are above the national average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 2,540, 0.9% of Scotland total
87% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, below the national 92% rate
MA uptake decreased 4% from 2014/15 to 290
1% of national total in 2015/16
Retail & Customer Service most popular MA framework group
21% of uptake
Gender segregated - 70% female
79% MA achievement rate in 2015/16
Fife

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Forth Valley College there were 14,530 enrolments
5% of Scotland’s total
84% FE and 16% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Engineering, Care, Business, management & administration
Part-time: Engineering, Special Programmes, Construction
69% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 10,000 students at the one HEI in the region, the University of Stirling, in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Biological Sciences, Business & Admin, Social Studies
HE/FE data is available at Forth Valley regional level only, comprising Clackmannanshire, Falkirk and Stirling. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to show no change from 2016 to Across Scotland as a whole, 0.2% growth on average each year is expected. Professional, scientific and technical and construction are the only sectors expected to see some growth regionally, with 100 jobs each over the forecast period. Public administration and defence and manufacturing are expected to contract (200 jobs each) in addition to the education sector (100 jobs). All other sectors are forecast to be relatively static.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Clackmannanshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 4,300 openings within Clackmannanshire over the forecast period. Expansion demand is expected to fall by 100 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in a net 4,200 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary occupations, driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer service and professional occupations is also expected to rise over the period, once more driven by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Clackmannanshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The employment growth in Clackmannanshire in 2013 and 2014 continued in 2015, with 300 more jobs, a 2% increase at a time of almost no jobs growth across Scotland.
There were shifts in the sector employment base in There were job losses in public administration & defense (-300), retail (-100) and the important sector of production (-100). There were also losses in the higher value added professional, scientific & technical services sector. The job increases were predominantly in the public services sectors of health (+500) and education (+200), and in wholesale and property. There was limited private sector jobs growth.
The business base grew strongly in 2015, and at 9.3% this was above the Scotland average, and output growth and productivity per worker are also above average. Nonetheless, there is an over-reliance on public sector employment in Clackmannanshire, and on manufacturing. There is the twin challenge of maintaining (and increasing) competitiveness in the manufacturing sector with making the transition to a knowledge-based economy and increasing local private sector jobs.
Glasgow

20. Clackmannanshire: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has increased more slowly than the Scotland average over the last 10 years, and is forecast to fall by The working age population is predicted to fall by 22%. More than a third work elsewhere in the region. There is a challenge to grow the number of jobs locally.
Far fewer are employed in professional occupations than average, with more in elementary, sales and skilled trade occupations, and as operatives. Replacement demand will offer the greatest number of openings, more than 4,000, highest for elementary, professional and sales occupations. Fewer have qualifications above SCQF level 7, and jobs in the area pay less than for those who out-commute.
More than a third go into employment from school, higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – retail & customer services, construction, health & social care (with sport) and administration & related, yet far fewer in engineering & energy.
Glasgow

21. Clackmannanshire: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Clackmannanshire include:
Increasing the number and quality of local jobs. Although there have been modest job increases, job numbers have only recently risen above 2009 levels. There is a reliance on public sector employment and production, which will continue to face competitive pressures. Higher value added services are under-represented.
Increase skills levels. Fewer have high level qualifications and many jobs are lower paid. There is a need to increase the supply of higher skilled labour.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including manufacturing and the health sector. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as skilled trades. Progression needs to be engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow