1. NS4054 Spring Term 2017 United States Energy Deregulation
Oxford Analytica, United States: Courts Will Slow Energy Deregulation May 10,2017

2. Overview
President Trump signed memorandum May 8, 2017 guiding all agency heads to review relevant regulations that:
“Potentially burden the development of domestically produced energy resources”
President has targeted rules and regulations implemented by former president Obama’s government on the environment and climate change as he looks to boost fossil fuel industry
White House has sought to
Expand offshore oil drilling
Revoke Clean Power Plan
Cut environmental rules for coal producers and
Reduce fuel efficiency standards

3. Initial Achievements Pipelines
Signing off on two controversial pipeline projects that had been held up by Obama administration
Dakota Access Pipeline and
Keystone XL
Dakota Access now carrying oil from Bakken shale oilfields in North Dakota to refineries in Illinois
Keystone still faces difficult road ahead
Little chance it will start up before end of Trump’s first term

4. Agenda I Congressional Activity
Trump signed legislation repealing section of Dodd-Frank financial reforms that would have required oil and gas companies publicly listed on US stock exchanges to report in more detail their payments to foreign governments
Oil and Gas industry had spent years lobbying against the rule
Executive orders and presidential statements
Trump’s more ambitious efforts to overhaul energy relations have come through executive orders
Administration calls these rapid policy action
Really just statements calling on agencies and departments to review existing rules and recommend courses of action to modify or rescind environmental regulations

5. Agenda II As of early June 2017 little has been achieved
March 28 “Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth” executive order set in motion wide-ranging review of regulatory issues including
The Clean Power Plan
Rules regulating fracking on federal lands and limiting methane emissions from oil and gas operations
The social cost of carbon metric, which requires regulators to consider the costs of carbon emissions when evaluating new rules and
A moratorium on new coal leases on federal lands

6. Agenda III
Trump also
Signed an order to review federal rules regarding automakers to ensure their vehicle fleets average 54.4 miles per gallon fuel efficiency by the mid-2020s
Tasked the government with finding ways to expedite the permitting process for new infrastructure projects such as pipelines and LNG gas export plants
Is seeking to overturn the “Waters of the United States” rule which significantly expanded the government’s regulatory powers over waterways
Wants to expand offshore oil and gas drilling into new areas on the Outer Continental Shelf off the East Coast and in the Arctic off Alaska
Wants to reduce power of EPA by cutting its budget by more than 30%

7. Obstacles I
Reviews set in motion by these executive orders likely to produce a raft of proposed regulatory changes over the coming years and years
No doubt will generate political pushback and be difficult to implement
Most significant changes such as overturning the Clean Power Plan and the Waters of the United States rule will require extensive administrative deliberation
May not be able to clear statutory hurdles across the US bureaucracy where decades of rules and precedent have entrenched federal standards

8. Obstacles II Executive orders
Certain to be challenged in the courts by environmental and other non-environmental groups backed by an activist opposition that is highly energized to resist Trump administration proposals.
These court challenges even in unsuccessful, will tie-up the proposed rule changes for months and potentially years.
States will also push back against federal rules weakening environmental protections
California has long set its own more stringent fuel efficiency standards and will continue to keep up that fight if Trump administration tries to impose weaker national standards

9. Obstacles III
On the clean energy front, many states including those led by Republicans have implemented renewable portfolio standards
These standards mandate a certain amount of power generation to come from renewable resources which will undermine Trump’s efforts to increase coal-fired power generation

10. Markets I Markets will also influence decisions
Little incentive to oil and gas companies to drill in new frontier offshore areas with oil prices around $50 per barrel
Other companies will have customer-driven business imperatives to pursue climate change mitigation initiatives
Trump loudest energy pledge to revive the coal industry and bring back mining jobs is being undercut by cheap and plentiful natural gas and increasingly competitive wind and solar.

11. Assessment
Despite Trump administration’s desire to move ahead quickly on energy initiatives, it will likely face months and possibly years of
Studies
Rulemaking efforts and
Pubic hearings
Across the bureaucracy to implement the broad goals in its executive orders
Legal challenges will come from
States
Environmental groups and
Other non-governmental organizations
The market too is working against many of his proposals.