1. Overview of Key Trends, 2009 Presented to Council 27 November 2009
Prof N B Pityana
Vice-Chancellor & Principal

2. HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10

3. HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10
Headcount enrolments expanded steadily between 2004 and 2008 from to – despite the fact that from 2007 onwards, only active students were counted
In 2009, for the first time, Unisa’s student enrolments flattened out
The st HEMIS submission counted – a substantial drop of 9,3% over the previous year. This can be explained by the later exam date and consequently fewer financial cancellation reinstatements by the HEMIS census date
This explanation is corroborated by the provisional nd submission which shows active headcounts to date. This indicates that a substantial number of financial cancellations have already been reinstated
On this basis, DISA predicts a final active HC total of for 2009 – slightly above the 2010 Ministerial target

4. Success Rates,

5. Success Rates,
Unisa’s FTE Success Rates have increased from 52,06% in 2004 to 54,89% in 2008 – despite a decline to 50,65% in 2006
This steady increase augers well for the achievement of the 2010 Ministerial target of 56% by 2010

7. Performance on 84 Targets in Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan
Overall Performance
Targets on Track - % Complete

8. Performance on 84 Targets in Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan
The 5-year review of progress towards the achievement of the 2015 Strategic Plan targets showed that progress towards the original 2015 targets can be described as generally on track. Of the 84 targets:
35 (41,7%) original and revised targets have been reached
6 (7,1%) original targets have not been reached
22 (26,2%) original and revised targets are on track
16 (19,0%) original and revised targets are not on track
5 (6,0%) targets have shifted or are unclear
In addition, of the 21 targets on track, 6 were between 75% - 99% complete, and a further 6 were above 50% complete

9. Performance Trends & Prognosis, 17 2015 SP KPIs

10. Performance Trends & Prognosis, 17 2015 SP KPIs
Of the 17 KPIs in the 2015 Plan:
4 targets had been reached. Of these, 1 showed a positive trend, 2 showed a sideways trend and 1 a negative trend
13 targets had not yet been reached. Of these 3 showed a positive trend, 6 a sideways trend and 4 a negative trend
The prognosis for achieving these targets was as follows:
4 targets had been reached
5 targets will probably/possibly be reached
It is unlikely that 4 of the targets will be reached
It is improbable that 4 other targets will be reached

11. Summary of Projections, 2009-13
Prov. 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Average annual increase:
HC Enrolments (active)
3,5%
FTE Enrolments
FTE Degree Credits (course success)
72 103
77 040
82 121
87 600
93 481
0,4%
Graduates
18 200
18 558
18 923
19 295
19 674
1,9%
Permanent Staff: Headcount
4 410
4 321
4 477
4 602
4 910
4,3%
Staff FTE
(perm & temp)
5 045
4 933
5 094
5 204
5 488
3,8%
Publication Units
620
680
740
780
820
7,5%
Academic staff with Ds
520
531
570
587
625
5,9%
Academic staff with Ms
377
385
413
425
453
Masters graduates
120
135
147
155
165
12,6%
Doctoral graduates 73 80 86 87 90
6,1%
Total Research Outputs
813
895
973
1 022
1 075
4,5%

12. Summary of Projections, 2009-13
Unisa recently submitted its provisional Enrolment Statement to the DoHET in accordance with requirements
This table summarises the provisional projections in key areas for the period

13. The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students
Subsidy Criteria
HEMIS 2005
HEMIS 2006
HEMIS 2007
HEMIS 2008
Projected HEMIS 2009
Projected HEMIS 2010
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Actual WFTE
83 557,89
90 802,66
95 886,99
,57
,60
,28
Adjusted WFTE
79 355,19
82 898,00
87 044,00
92 074,32
97 079,85
,30
Unfunded WFTE
4 202,69
7 904,66
8 842,99
17 386,25
17 853,75
18 613,98
Unfunded subsidy value (mill)
R 32,4
R 65,0
R 79,9
R 173,1
R 186,1
R 202,7

14. The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students
A key challenge facing Unisa is the number of unfunded students which arise from the capping of teaching input units allocated to HEIs according to the long-term government funding framework
It can be seen that by 2012/13, a subsidy loss of R202,7m will have accumulated
Subsequent iterations of the planning process will have to address this problem