1. Wildfire getting what you pay for
Prof. Michael Mann
Dept. Geography
George Washington U
michaelmann.i234.me /wordpress
Reframe discussion
perfect conditions for wildfire exist, and will become more common with climate change
Not about plants (fuels) or climate
Economic geography how 50 years economic incentives
reshaped ecosystems
human communities that live in and around them

2. In California 85+% of wildfires are cause by humans
Rim Fire
Ignition: Illegal Campfire
Burned: 257,314 acres
2013

3. In a bad fire year California spends $1 billion on wildfire suppression
Main point:
This has bought us nothing other than greater risks
Rim Fire
Cost: $127.4 million
Burned: 112 buildings
2013

4. California Acres Burned
A scary picture?
If climate continues to warm and dry, area burned will continue to grow
until fuels exhausted
Recent warmer drier conditions have made readily available fuels more ignition prone
If climate continues on this trend, we will see a steady increase in the area burned
until fuels are exhausted or ecosystems shift.

5. Some Historical Context
Low intensity wildfire was a natural component of California’s ecosystem, and
shaped its unique plant populations
Current burned area is about
6% of precolonial levels
Before 1800 total annual area burned in California approximately 6 million acres
6% of the pre-colonial area
Supression of fire has changed many ecosystems in the western and southeastern USA

6. Evidence from landscapes
Bear Creek Station Sierra Nevada
1915

7. Bear Creek Station Sierra Nevada
Evidence from landscapes
Bear Creek Station Sierra Nevada
2002

8. FIRE TEMPORARILY REMOVED
Evidence from landscapes
FIRE TEMPORARILY REMOVED
+4x FUEL LOAD
FIRE TEMPORARILY REMOVED
+4x FUEL LOAD

9. We can’t pay to stop wildfire anymore
Suppression Costs
Subsidy
Acres Burned

10. Subsidize things you want more of
What has fire suppression bought us?
Subsidies have:
Increased the number & size of wildfires
Encouraged short-sighted local development D
Price
Supply (S)
S + Subsidy
Demand
Directly increased Q fuels, and successful ignitions
40% of new housing development in high risk areas
Humans are responsible for 100% of the risks they face
if people don’t live there,
there are no risks &
we don’t have to put out the fire
Therefore, increased the cost and risks associated with wildfire
More
Quantity
(Fuels and
Houses)

11. LET’S
PLAY
A GAME!

12. You Buy a home near Lake Tahoe Game Scenario &
saving for child’s education

13. Game Scenario
Your
Neighbor
A typical
single guy

14. Rolls of 4 or less = Fire Ignites!
Ignition Roll
Outcome depend on random chance
Rolls of 4 or less = Fire Ignites!

15. If you had an ignition
Roll for Damages

16. Rolls of 3 or less = Home Burns (only roll if you had a ignition)
Damages Roll
Outcome depend on random chance
Rolls of 3 or less = Home Burns (only roll if you had a ignition)

17. If you home is on fire, hold up your red card!
Call for help!
Outcome depend on random chance
If you home is on fire, hold up your red card!

18. Let’s try – Test Round 1 2 3

19. Round
ONE!

20. Ignition Roll 1
Your neighbor get out his flame throwing lawn mower, and shoots guns at rocks

21. If ignited, the fire rapidly approaches your home.
Wildfire!
If ignited, the fire rapidly approaches your home.

22. Fire fighters mobilize
Damages Roll 2
Fire fighters mobilize
and attempt to
suppress the fire.

23. Unfortunately some percentage of homes couldn’t be saved.
Call for help! 3
Unfortunately some percentage of homes couldn’t be saved.
Tragic!

24. Are you in a high or low risk area?
Look around.
Are you in a high or low risk area?

25. Help comes! Good news, a state of emergency is called!
FEMA covers 75% of the states costs.
Home owners are able to rebuild at no cost.

26. Stand up if you are willing to move tables
(cost = $1)

27. Moving Tables? 2 1 5 4 3 !
Cough up $1
Stand up & move tables!

28. Round
TWO!

29. Your neighbor hosts an unruly Boy Scout camp out
Ignition Roll 1
Your neighbor hosts an unruly Boy Scout camp out

30. We live in a low risk area, so we aren’t effected!
Wildfire! Not again!
We have rebuilt before.
We are resilient!
We live in a low risk area, so we aren’t effected!

31. Again fire fighters courageously mobilize
Damages Roll 2
Again fire fighters courageously mobilize
and attempt to
suppress the fire.

32. Call for help! 3
More houses burn
Tragic… again!

33. Bad news Help comes! FEMA only covers 25% of the cost,
and insurance companies no longer cover high risk areas.

34. Are you high or low risk?
High Risk
Low Risk
1) People in high risk area pay $5 to rebuild.
2) People in low risk areas owe $2 to cover state costs.

35. $ $ $
Tally up how much you owe so far,
and feel free to PayPal me!

36. Stand up if you are willing to move tables
(cost = $1)

37. Moving Tables? 2 1 5 4 3 !
Stand up &
Cough up $1

38. Let’s Reflect Are wildfire risks driven by humans or by climate?
Can we control the wildfire risks humans face with climate change?
National flood insurance program 1% household account for 30% of payout b/c repetitive claims.
Do incentives matter?
Share your

39. The Take Away Message Despite this Why?
Infrastructure Damages / Year
Wildfire Damages Forecast
My models suggest exponential growth in damages
$4x108
(due to exurban development in the wildland urban interface)
Despite this
We subside the things that make us vulnerable
$2x108
40% of homes in California are built in high risk areas
Why?
We subside the things that make us more vulnerable
1975

40. Thanks! With any luck, the game worked, and we started a discussion!
Prof. Michael Mann
michaelmann.i234.me/wordpress
Share your

41. Similar to flood insurance?
30% of all Federal flood insurance payments go to 1% of household who experience repetitive losses
(King, 2005: CRS Report for Congress)