1. An Adaptation Portfolio Approach to Managing Climate Risk
Greg Aplet and Pete McKinley – The Wilderness Society
John Gallo – Conservation Biology Institute

2. Allocating a Climate Portfolio Part I: The Conceptual Basis
What is the goal of climate adaptation?
What are the strategies?
How should we apply these strategies?
Part II: A Spatial Decision Support System

3. What makes a wildland wild?
From Section 2(c) of the Wilderness Act:
A wilderness…is hereby recognized as an area where the earth and its community of life are untrammeled by man, where man himself is a visitor who does not remain. An area of wilderness is further defined to mean in the Act an area of undeveloped Federal land retaining its primeval character and influence, without permanent improvements or human habitation, which is protected and managed so as to preserve its natural conditions and which…generally appears to have been affected primarily by the forces of nature…

4. Wildland Qualities Earth and its community of life Primeval character
Natural conditions
Untrammeled by man
Primeval influence
Affected primarily by the forces of nature

5. (Wholeness or “historical fidelity”)
Wildland Qualities
Earth and its community of life
Primeval character
Natural conditions =
Naturalness
(Wholeness or “historical fidelity”)
Untrammeled by man
Primeval influence
Affected primarily by the forces of nature

6. Wildland Qualities = Naturalness = Freedom from human control
Earth and its community of life
Primeval character
Natural conditions =
Naturalness
(Wholeness or “historical fidelity”)
Untrammeled by man
Primeval influence
Affected primarily by the forces of nature =
Freedom from human control

7. “The Paradox of the Primeval”
The Dilemma of Wilderness Management
Untrammeled
Natural
Cole, D.N Ecological manipulation in wilderness: an emerging management dilemma. International Journal of Wilderness 2(1):15-19

8. Wildness Dimensions of Wildness Freedom from Control Naturalness
C& O Canal
Chesapeake Bay
Arctic Refuge
“Self-willed”
Vacant Lot
Freedom from Control
Wildness
Everglades
Controlled
Pine Plantation
Curtis Prairie
Downtown
Artificial
Pristine
Naturalness

9. “Directions” of Management
“Self-willed”
Drift
Recovery
Freedom from Control
Transformation
Restoration
Controlled
Novel
Pristine
Ecological Condition

10. Global Change: The End of Recovery?
Pressure of
Global Change:
Warming
Invasives
Fragmentation
Accept Change
“Self-willed”
Recovery
Freedom from Control
Guide Change
Resist Change
Controlled
Pristine
Novel
Ecological Condition

11. Choices in the face of climate change
Accept change: Observation only
Resist change: Restoration
Guide change: Innovation and experimentation

12. Certain Uncertainty
“We might feel confident of broad-scale future environmental changes (such as global mean temperature increases), but we cannot routinely predict even the direction of change at local and regional scales (such as increasing or decreasing precipitation).”
Millar et al. (2007)

13. What to do?
“Managing in the face of uncertainty will require a portfolio of approaches, including short-term and long-term strategies, that focus on enhancing ecosystem resistance and resilience…as climates and environments continue to shift.”
Millar et al. (2007)
“A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.”
IPCC Adaptation Report

14. An Experimental Landscape Approach
Observation only in some places (both treatment and control)
Restoration in some places (“Keeping all the parts”)
Innovation in some places (novel conservation)
Integrated across the landscape in a cohesive experiment

15. OTHER SLIDES FOLLOW, but were not shown at the American Association of Geographers Meeting due to the subsequent presentation by John Gallo that touched on the following material.

16. Principles of Allocation
Representation
Connectivity across gradients
Configuration

17. An illustration

18. Real Life Example: Hawaiian Ahupua’a
“In different places, in different chunks, we can manage nature for
different ends—for historical restoration, for species preservation, for
self-willed wildness, for ecosystem services, for food and fiber and
fish and flame trees and frogs.” – Emma Marris, Rambunctious Garden

19. A Decision Support System for Spatial Allocation

20. Zone Suitability

21. Final Map @johnagallo john.gallo@consbio.org
Example Three Zone Allocation
1 (Observation Zone)
2 (Restoration Zone)
3 (Innovation Zone)
Southern Sierra Nevada Study Area
@johnagallo