1. You’re fired! The Strategic Defence and Security Review
Steve Jary November 2010
National Secretary

2. Financial background Budgetary legacy CSR settlement
What it means in practice
inflation etc
ACR baseline and targets

3. National Security Strategy
Four priorities
International terrorism
Cyber attack
International military crises
Major accidents or natural hazards
“… tough choices to bring the defence budget back into balance. Those choices are informed by the risks, analysis and prioritisation set out in this National Security Strategy”
“A risk that is both high impact and high likelihood is more significant than one that is low impact and low likelihood”

4. SDSR highlights (1) Waffle and platitudes – vague and ill-defined
New defence planning assumptions:
one enduring ‘stabilisation’ operation (6,500); and
one enduring complex intervention (2,000); and
one non-enduring simple intervention (1,000); or
three non-enduring operations; or
with sufficient warning(!), short large single commitment (30,000)

5. SDSR highlights (2) Future force elements:
Deployed force
High readiness force
Lower readiness force
Aim to deliver this “for the 2020s”
Implications for command structures?
In essence:
maintain virtually all capabilities, but
reduced volume

6. SDSR highlights (3)
2.B.13 “MOD civil servants play a critical role in defence. They support Ministers in determining policy and strategy; in managing the resources allocated by Parliament; and in maintaining our key cross-government and international relationships. They also perform a range of vital roles in front line support to operations, from manning the Royal Fleet Auxiliary and providing fire safety, to scientific knowledge, contracts expertise, logistics support, intelligence capabilities and policy advice.”

7. SDSR highlights (4) £4.3 billion non-front line savings:
Reductions in civilian workforce and non-front line service personnel
Rationalisation of estate
Asset sales, inc DSG and Marchwood
Efficiencies and improvements in military training
Contract renegotiations
£300 million pa from service and civilian allowances
Reduced spend on commodities
Reduced spend on media and comm’s
“this represents a 24% reduction in non-frontline roles and organisations such as headquarters, support roles and organisations such as DE&S, saving at least £2 billion per year by 2014/15”

8. SDSR finance

9. SDSR people

10. SDSR critique Driven by finance, not strategy Reverse-engineered
Civilian cut is political
Armed forces ‘protected’ (10% cut)
Civilians ‘sacrificed’ (30% cut)
No risk assessment, no plan

11. Issues for Prospect
Political commitment to headcount reductions – can we make a difference and how?
Hands-clean or hands-dirty?
VERS – CSCS terms, selection, etc
MSS Agreement – units and selection
No enforced redundancy
Mobility - No enforced relocation
Privatisation - VfM assessments