1. Potential GDP, resource utilisation and monetary policy Grand Hotel, Saltsjöbaden 7 October First Deputy Governor of the Riksbank Svante Öberg

2. Figure 1. GDP gaps in September 2010 and in real time Per cent
Source: The Riksbank

3. Figure 2. Historical GDP trends Index 2000=100
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4. Figure 3. GDP, hours worked and productivity Index 2007 Q4 =100
Note: Broken lines denote the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPU September 2008.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5. Figure 4. The GDP gap according to the Riksbank, the National Institute of Economic Research and the Ministry of Finance Per cent
The Riksbank, September 2010
The National Institute of Economic Research, September 2010
The Ministry of Finance, August 2010

6. Figure 5. The GDP gap according to the Riksbank, the OECD, the IMF and the European Commission Per cent
The Riksbank, September 2010
The European Commission, May 2010
The OECD, May 2010
The IMF, April 2010

7. Figure 6. Labour market gaps Percentage deviation from the HP-trend and from the average , seasonally-adjusted data
Hours HP gap (left scale)
Employment HP gap (left scale)
Employment (left scale)
Unemployment (right scale)
Note. Broken lines denote the Riksbank’s forecast in MPU September 2010.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

8. Figure 7. Indicators for the business sector Deviation from the average, percentage points
Demand
Number employed
Labour shortage
Sales prices
Companies’ inflation expectations 12 months ahead
Confidence indicator
Note. Companies’ inflation expectations 12 months ahead are denoted in tenths of a percentage point.
Source: National Institute of Economic Research

9. Figure 8. Shortage of labour in the business sector and capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry Deviation from average
Capacity utilisation
Shortage of labour in the business sector
Source: National Institute of Economic Research

10. Figure 9. Shortage of labour in the business sector and unemployment Deviations from the average
Labour shortage
Unemployment
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

11. Figure 10. The GDP gap and the RU indicator Percentage deviation from HP trend and number of standard deviations from the average
HP gap GDP
RU indicator
Note. Broken line denotes the Riksbank’s forecast MPU September 2010
Source: The Riksbank

12. Figure 11. Industrial production, capacity utilisation and potential industrial production Per cent
Logarithmic trend (industrial production)
* Calculated as industrial production x (average capacity utilisation /capacity utilisation).
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

13. Figure 12. The RU indicator and HICP inflation excluding energy Per cent, deviation from average
HICP
RU indicator
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

14. Figure 13. CPI and CPIF inflation Annual percentage change
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. The broken lines denote the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPU September 2010.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

15. Figure 14. Repo rate Per cent, daily data and quarterly averages
Note. Broken line denotes the Riksbank’s forecast in MPU September 2010.
Source: The Riksbank