1. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
Evaluation of increasing susceptibility of flood in areas surrounding Kala Bagh Dam, Pakistan: A Review
Amna Butt, Aisha Khan & Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
Department of Environmental Sciences
Fatima Jinnah Women University
Rawalpindi, Pakistan

2. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
The Global Climate Risk Index has ranked Pakistan as the 12th most affected by extreme weather events.
The Global Climate Risk Index has ranked Pakistan as the 12th most affected by extreme weather events.

3. OCCURRENCE OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
OCCURRENCE OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN PAKISTAN
THE RESEARCH BY UNISDR (UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION) PUBLISHED ON PREVENTIONWEB.ORG
LINK:

4. TOP TEN NATURAL DISASTERS REPORTED IN PAKISTAN
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
TOP TEN NATURAL DISASTERS REPORTED IN PAKISTAN
Disaster
Date
Affected (no of peoples)
Flood
2010
18,102,327
2005
7,000,450
1992
6,655,450
6,184,418
Earthquake*
5,128,309
Drought
1999
2,200,000
Storm
2007
1,650,000
1996
1,300,000
2003
1,266,223
1995
1,255,000
7 of these major natural disasters are floods. Statistics by UNISDR

5. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad

6. IMPACTS OF FLOODS PRIMARY IMPACTS Physical damage
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
IMPACTS OF FLOODS
PRIMARY IMPACTS
Physical damage
Damage to Infrastructure
Casualties
SECONDARY IMPACTS
Water supplies
Diseases
Crops and food supplies
Trees
TERTIARY/LONG TERM IMPACTS
Economy
Environment

7. 2010 FLOOD IN PAKISTAN Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
Flood effected districts of Pakistan:

8. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
PEOPLE PER SQUARE KILOMETERS IN FLOOD(2010) AFFECTED DISTRICTS OF PAKISTAN

9. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
IMPACTS OF 2010 FLOOD
Losses and damages due to flood 2010 in pakistan
Report by NDMA:
Annual Flood Report, 2010, Ministry of Water & Power, Government of Pakistan

10. 2010 flood and KPK Worst hit province due to combination of:
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
Worst hit province due to combination of:
La Nina effect
Westerly winds and Jet streams
Heavy and prolonged monsoon
Recurrent flashfloods
Moist air above Indian ocean
Steep slopes
Unplanned urbanization and massive deforestation

11. Social and local life will be destructed
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
Unusual heavy rainfalls in Northern regions of Pakistan leading to high level of extreme flooding throughout the Indus River basin
Soil will be prone to erosion in future and will also be a source of siltation in streams and rivers with pouring rains and high surface flows
Decrease in vegetation cover leading to increase surface runoff and decreased percolation
Wildlife habitat will be effected and there will be more exposure to the hunters
Social and local life will be destructed

12. THE KALABAGH DAM PROJECT
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
THE KALABAGH DAM PROJECT

13. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
KALABAGH DAM SITE
The Kalabagh Dam site is 210 km downstream of the Tarbela Dam and approximately 26 km upstream of the Jinnah Barrage on the River . Indus River rises in Tibet at an elevation of about 18,000 ft. above sea level. After flowing through the Himalayan mountain ranges and then foothill, it debouches into the Punjab plains at the town of Kalabagh and flows further 770 miles across the plains before reaching the sea.

14. PROPOSED DESIGN 260 ft. high rock-fill dam;
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
PROPOSED DESIGN
260 ft. high rock-fill dam;
Maximum retention level about 915 ft.;
Working storage of reservoir approx. 6.1 MAF;
Two spillways on the right bank;
In the event of probable floods, these spillways will be able to discharge over 2 million cusecs of water.
The final power house will be constructed on the left bank will have the final generation capacity of 3600 MW;
The mean annual river flow at Kalabagh is MAF.

15. PROPOSED OBJECTIVES: WAPDA
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
PROPOSED OBJECTIVES: WAPDA
MAIN OBJECTIVE
To compensate for the storage lost due to silting up of existing reservoirs and to provide additional storage and regulation on the Indus for management and timely supplies of water for the crops.
SECONDARY OBJECTIVES
• To generate large amount of low cost hydroelectric power near major load centers.
• To increase the energy and power output of Tarbela Power Station as a result of conjunctive operation of Tarbela and Kalabagh reservoirs.
To regulate and control the extreme FLOOD peaks of the Indus to alleviate flood damage downstream.

16. Objections on KBD Construction Objections of Baluchistan
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
Threats to Nowshera
Increased Salinity
Destruction of SCARP Projects
Submergence of fertile cultivable land
Danger of Shallow Wells in Karak turning Brackish
Population dislocation
Fisheries
Deterioration of Water Quality
Sea encroachment
Environmental Impacts
Effect on "KATCHO"
Cultivation in riverain areas
Mangrove forests
Objections of KPK
Objections of Sindh
Objections on KBD Construction
Objections of Baluchistan
Reduction in share of irrigation water
Increased demand of Water

17. Environmental Impact Assessment Report (1984)
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
Environmental Impact Assessment Report (1984)
Relocation of population centers and dislocation of other infrastructure facilities, borrow and spoil area issues, and lend use changes by impoundment;
Interruption of the existing river navigation;
Submergence of mineral resources by reservoir particularly Tut Oil fields;
Submergence of archaeological and historical resources, like the historic town of Makhad;
Effect on river ecosystem;
Effects on the Indus delta;
Effect on wildlife in the probable reservoir area.
The potential areas of concern identified in the Environmental Impact assessment report of 1984 include the following:
Relocation due to submergence of population centres and dislocation of other infra structure facilities, borrow and spoil area issues, and lend use changes by impoundment;
Interruption of the existing river navigation;
Submergence of mineral resources by reservoir particularly Tut Oil fields;
Submergence of archaeological and historical resources, like the historic town of Makhad;
Effect on river ecosystem;
Effects on the Indus delta;
Effect on wildlife in the probable reservoir area.

18. PUNJAB VIEWPOINT The only province advocating for Kalabagh dam.
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
The only province advocating for Kalabagh dam.
Utilization of water flowing into the Arabian Sea is inevitable as the water resources are being depleted continuously
It can compensate the storage capacity lost by Tarbela and Mangla over the years due to sedimentation

19. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
CONTROVERSY
Lack of public disclosure of related facts by the government/related authorities.
WAPDA failure to consult the provinces.
Continuously changing stand of government over the major utilization characteristics of Dam.
Ignoring the concerns of population to be displaced by KBD; aggravating the fear of non compensation.
Lack of public disclosure of all the relevant facts regarding selection criteria, planning parameters, design guidelines, cost estimates, environmental and socio-economic assessments, government's priorities, and financing mechanism of the planned construction
WAPDA failure to consult the provinces at all stages of the project from planning, designing and implementation till the completion of its detail design as late as by 1985
Increase in confusion by the government by declaring KBD as only a storage dam to offset the storage loss of Tarbela and Mangla Dams due to sedimentation. Later promoting it as a project vital for generation of inexpensive hydel power and still later declaring that the project would also have Left and Right Bank canals for irrigation purposes.
Ignoring the human displacement in a country where tens of thousands of affectees of the other dams remain uncompensated after the passage of decades and also the concerns about the impact that would have on the environment and the surrounding areas

20. WORLD COMMISION ON DAMS
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
WORLD COMMISION ON DAMS
“Dams have made an important and significant contribution to human development, and benefits derived from them have been considerable yet in too many cases an unacceptable and often unnecessary price has been paid to secure those benefits, especially in social and environmental terms, by people displaced, by communities downstream, by taxpayers and by the natural environment”
The WCD’s final report provides ample evidence that large dams have failed to produce as much electricity, provide as much water, or control as much flood damage as their supporters originally predicted.

21. ALTERNATIVES TO KALABAGH DAM
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
ALTERNATIVES TO KALABAGH DAM
Raising water level in Mangla dam to offset the effect of silting.
A de-silted Tarbela would yield the same irrigation benefits as Kalabagh, but at one-seventh the cost in net present value terms
A thermal power plant of equivalent capacity constructed with one-third of cost of KBD
Construction of other small/large dams including Bhasha, Katzarah, Soan dam etc.

22. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
WHAT TO DO?

23. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
DEVELOPE CONSENSUS
Acceptance of affected population without any pressure from authorities/influential people.
Comprehensive and participatory assessments
To maximize the efficiency of existing water and energy systems before building new projects.
Surety of providing reparations, or retroactive compensation to affected people.

24. FLOOD MANAGEMENT
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad

25. Remove the technical discrepancies honestly
Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
CONCLUSION
Remove the technical discrepancies honestly
Deal the KBD project technically rather then politically
Build the trust of community by entertaining their concerns patiently
DEVELOP PROPER FLOOD MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES FOR THE REGION

26. Presenter: Dr Sheikh Saeed Ahmad
THANK YOU