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WCRP-ICTP Summer School

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Presentation on theme: "WCRP-ICTP Summer School"— Presentation transcript:

1 WCRP-ICTP Summer School
Motivation Advanced training on WCRP Grand Challenges Capacity growth of leaders in the developing world Stimulate the growth of the community on key emerging science topics Format 30 students, 10+ faculty, assistants Lecutres – core study projects Teams of 5 students will work with lecturer-advisors on one of the problems for the duration of the school. The expectation would be that at least some of these projects would lead to peer-reviewed publications.

2 1st WCRP-ICTP Summer School
Attribution and Prediction of Climate Extremes 21 July to 01 August Trieste, Italy Objective: To train students with outstanding research potential in the techniques that will be required to better understand observed and future changes in extremes. Topic areas: Statistical theory underpinning extreme value analysis, Detection and attribution of observed changes in the frequency and/or intensity of extremes, and Event attribution, and the physical mechanisms that are involved in amplifying and/or extending the duration of some specific extreme events such as heat waves Address the development of some of the key data resources that are used to place current extremes into a historical context, and will provide insights into some of the emerging thinking on the near term prediction of the likelihood of extreme events. The school will also teach the importance of understanding the physical mechanisms that produce many of the most impactful extreme events, including "complex" hydrologic extremes such as drought and the role of coupled land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms in amplifying extreme temperature events.

3 1st WCRP-ICTP Summer School
Attribution and Prediction of Climate Extremes Extreme event prediction at seasonal and shorter lead times: Francisco DOBLAS-REYES, Arun KUMAR– Prediction and assessment of skill Statistical theory: Lisa ALEXANDER - Observations of Extremes Eric GILLELAND - Statistical theory, R & NCAR extreme package Philippe NAVEAU - Advanced applications of extreme value theory Detection and attribution: Francis ZWIERS, Xuebin ZHANG - Optimized and non-optimized methods, application to extremes Event attribution: Friederike OTTO - Attributable risk assessment approach Peter STOTT - Physical process assessment approach Event attribution: Physical process assessment approach: Judith PERLWITZ - Large scale circulation Sonia SENEVIRATNE - Land-climate feedbacks, local v. large scale drivers

4 1st WCRP-ICTP Summer School
Attribution and Prediction of Climate Extremes

5 2nd WCRP-ICTP Summer School
Climate System Prediction and the Delivery of Actionable Regional Climate Information Dakar, Senegal Motivation: Increasing capacity in WCRP Grand Challenge on the provision of regional climate information Improvement of forecasting systems and operations (GPCs, ACMAD, AGRHYMET, PRESAO, NHMS Delivery of actionable climate information in support of the Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS). Topics Understanding of the remote and local drivers of climate variability Forecast system development and verification Application of predictions for impacts studies (e.g. health, agriculture) Delivery of products that address user needs for the development of early warning systems ahead of season planning, and longer term adaptation planning.

6 2nd WCRP-ICTP Summer School
Climate System Prediction and the Delivery of Actionable Regional Climate Information Dakar, Senegal Potential Faculty Adrian Tompkins ICTP, Italy Benjamin Kirtman U. Miami, USA Jin Huang NOAA, USA Francisco Doblas Reyes IC3, Spain Benjamin Lamptey ACMAD, Niger Andre Kamga ACMAD, Niger Ousmane Ndiaye ANACIM, Senegal Richard Graham UK Met Office, UK Andrew Robertson IRI, USA Alessandra Giannini IRI, USA Doug Parker U. Leeds, UK


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