1. Southwestern Region Wildfire Risk Assessment – USDA Forest Service
April
2016

2. Purpose
Present an overview of the Forest Service Regional Wildfire Risk Assessment, current status and expected outcomes.
Present a framework for assessing risk from wildfire.
Overview of Wildfire Risk Assessment
Update on current status and preliminary results
Next steps and Proposed Timelines

3. Likelihood x Severity x Exposure
A Risk Definition
What is risk?
Potential of losing or gaining something of value
Likelihood x Severity x Exposure

4. Risk Framework
RMRS GTR 315

5. Why a Wildfire Risk Assessment
Common Operating Picture
Identifying and Quantifying Values at Risk
Communicating about that Risk
Communication platform
Prioritization
Preparedness and Response planning
Budget Allocation
Future Questions:
Where can wildfire risk be feasibly mitigated.
How will management activities affect wildfire likelihood, wildfire intensity, or values and asset susceptibility
Identifying and understanding risk posed by wildfire can facilitate prioritization and development of risk mitigation strategies.

6. What is a Wildfire Risk Assessment
Fire likelihood, fire intensity, and fire effects – displayed spatially

7. The Process - Framework
To complete this assessment we need and are seeking involvement at multiple levels in the Agency.
Overview and details for each component (PROCESS)
Component 1 – The wildfire simulations are being completed by Missoula Fire Lab and Fire Modeling Institute in Missoula
Components 2 – seeking support from regional resource staffs and fire behavior specialists regarding how identified HVRAs may be affected by fire. Based upon the highly valued resources and assets this group would consist of 5-7 individuals.
Component 3 - The purpose of this workshop was to establish quantitative weights that differentiate the relative importance of HVRAs.

8. Fire Hazard Results

9. Fire Hazard Results

10. Process - Framework
To complete this assessment we need and are seeking involvement at multiple levels in the Agency.
Overview and details for each component (PROCESS)
Component 1 – The wildfire simulations are being completed by Missoula Fire Lab and Fire Modeling Institute in Missoula
Components 2 – seeking support from regional resource staffs and fire behavior specialists regarding how identified HVRAs may be affected by fire. Based upon the highly valued resources and assets this group would consist of 5-7 individuals.
Component 3 - The purpose of this workshop was to establish quantitative weights that differentiate the relative importance of HVRAs.

11. Highly Valued Resources and Assets
What’s important on our landscapes?
Spatial (able to be mapped)
Consistent across the assessment scale
9 HVRA Categories:
WUI
Watersheds (Drinking Water)
Ecosystem Function
Recreation
Timber
Infrastructure
Rangeland
Tribal
Wildlife Habitat

12. HVRA Relative Importance
Results from the Relative Importance Workshop
2 Forest Supervisors
2 RO Directors
1 Executive

13. Results - Landscape Value

14. Process
To complete this assessment we need and are seeking involvement at multiple levels in the Agency.
Overview and details for each component (PROCESS)
Component 1 – The wildfire simulations are being completed by Missoula Fire Lab and Fire Modeling Institute in Missoula
Components 2 – seeking support from regional resource staffs and fire behavior specialists regarding how identified HVRAs may be affected by fire. Based upon the highly valued resources and assets this group would consist of 5-7 individuals.
Component 3 - The purpose of this workshop was to establish quantitative weights that differentiate the relative importance of HVRAs.

15. Fire Effects - Susceptibility

16. Fire Effects - Susceptibility

17. Fire Effects - Susceptibility

18. Fire Effects - Susceptibility

19. Fire Effects – Wildlife Habitat
Riparian habitat was mapped based on RMAP data.
The Aquatic Habitat category was build using HUC6 watersheds that contained any of the following species presence (Based on Section 7 data, except garter snakes from USFWS); Northern Mexican garter snake, Narrow-headed garter snake, Chiricahua leaopard frog, Apache trout, Gila chub, Gila trout, Loach minnow, Spikedace, Roundtail chub, Headwater chub, and Rio Grande cutthroat trout. The Aquatic Habitat values were then also subdivided into erosion hazard to better represent fire effects.
Fire Effects – Wildlife Habitat

20. Fire Effects - Susceptibility

21. Fire Effects - Susceptibility

22. Ecosystem Function

23. Fire Effects - Susceptibility

24. Results – Integrated Wildfire Risk

25. Conditional Net Value Change

26. Scale of a Wildfire Risk Assessment
Address SCALE and ALL LANDS
Scalability - The scale we are addressing today is a Regional level assessment. However, a wildland fire risk assessment can be developed down to the project level.
Once a regional assessment is completed - there may be a need to scale the assessment to the Forest level. Scaling to the forest level is occurring in R2 because the highly valued resources and assets are not distributed evenly across the Region.
The value of the scalability includes:
Prioritization and allocation of forest level funding.
Local issues can be highlighted, and refinement of fire behavior.
Data sets are greater resolution.
Allows local communication with cooperators and stakeholders
ALL LANDS: DOI leadership is currently looking at our process and procedures and it is anticipated they will adopted a similar (if not the same process in the future). The risk assessment process can be applied a crossed all lands: it is scalable and linkable.

27. Now what? FSim contract for all lands in region
AZ and NM state interest
TNC interest
Updates to fuel in SE AZ
Need to look at relative importance of values
WUI –broken out by density
Tribal values
Final results in July

28. Questions, Comments, Suggestions???
Contact:
Tessa Nicolet