1. The Indo-Pacific Challenge Matching Commitments and Resources
Toshi Yoshihara
U.S. Naval War College

2. Snapshot of Global Commons

3. 2007 Maritime Strategy
“Credible combat power will be continuously postured in the Western Pacific and the Arabian Gulf/Indian Ocean to protect our vital interests, assure our friends and allies of our continuing commitment to regional security, and deter and dissuade potential adversaries and peer competitors.”

4. Atlantic-Pacific Navy
Indo-Pacific Navy

5. 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance
“U.S. economic and security interests are inextricably linked to developments in the arc extending from the Western Pacific and East Asia into the Indian Ocean region and South Asia, creating a mix of evolving challenges and opportunities. Accordingly, while the U.S. military will continue to contribute to security globally, we will of necessity rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific region.”

7. Indo-Asia-Pacific
“Spanning from the West Coast of the United States to the eastern coast of Africa and containing eight of the world’s ten most populous countries, the Indo-Asia-Pacific region continues to increase in significance for our Nation as well as for our allies and partners. America’s economy and security are inextricably linked to the immense volume of trade that flows across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The economic importance, security interests, and geography of this vast maritime region dictate a growing reliance on naval forces to protect U.S. interests and maintain an enduring commitment to the stability of the region.”

9. Enduring U.S. Interests
“The United States has enduring economic and security interests in the Asia-Pacific region. And because the region – stretching from the Indian Ocean, through the South and East China Seas, and out to the Pacific Ocean – is primarily water, we place premium on maintaining maritime peace and security.”

10. Crossover Trends Anti-piracy by East Asian navies in IOR
China’s “one belt, one road”
India’s “Act East” policy
Japan’s Indian Ocean presence
Hypothetical: regional war in East Asia leads to horizontal escalation to IOR

11. SASC Testimony, March 2015

12. SASC Testimony, March 2015

13. An Ocean Too Far? Vast distances Chokepoints Anti-access technologies
Force structure

14. U.S. Navy’s Woes Post-Cold War: Shrinking industrial base
Skyrocketing per unit costs
Ships retiring faster than they are built
Post-911:
2008 financial crisis
Two wars in the Middle East
Postwar drawdown
Current budget crunch: sequestration
Baseline fleet : ships
Below 290 ships since 2009
Battle force size (Dec. 31, 2015): 272

15. Bush
Obama

16. Congressional Budget Office
2012: The Navy “would never achieve a force of 310 to 316 between now [2012] and 2042.” 2013: “Under its 2014 shipbuilding plan, the Navy would not build enough ships at the right times to meet the service’s inventory goal of 306 battle force ships until 2037.”

17. Congressional Budget Office
2014: “Under that alternative [historical average] plan, the battle force fleet in 2023 would be about the same size as in the Navy’s plan but by 2044 would number 242 ships.” 2015: “Under this [CBO’s estimated] plan, the battle force fleet in 2023 would be about the same size as in the Navy’s plan but by 2045 would number 237 ships, as opposed to the 305 in the Navy’s plan.”

18. Resource Mismatch? Projected Size Projected Needs
Fmr SECNAV John Lehman: ships
Center for Naval Analysis: 230 ships by 2030
Fmr CNO Greenert 2012 SASC: ships after sequester
Fmr CNO Greenert 2013 SASC:
2020 fleet: ships
95 deployed; 50 ships in Asian waters
Pivot nullified
Projected Needs
QDR Panel: 346
CSBA: 326
Heritage: 309
CNAS: 300
Cato: 241
Sustainable Defense: 230
PDA: 230

19. CNO Admiral Richardson
“Barring an unforeseen change, even as we face new challenges and an increasing pace, the Defense and Navy budgets likely will continue to be under pressure. We will not be able to “buy” our way out of the challenges that we face. The budget environment will force tough choices but must also inspire new thinking.”

20. Distributed Power and Responsibility
Shared vision among like-minded powers: freedom of the seas
“From Wheels to Webs”: beyond hub-and-spoke architecture
Networks among local states
Bilateral, trilateral, quadrilateral, multilateral

21. “Global Network of Navies”
Integrate allied and partner capabilities
Enhance allied and partner capabilities
Engage allies and partners in regional and international forums

23. Convening Power of Navies
Tailored to needs and capabilities
Inductive approach to shared norms
Overlapping networks of permanent to ad hoc relationships
Resilient maritime system resistant to revisionism