1. A Coming Crisis in Teaching?
Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortages in the U.S.
9/15/16

2. California Headlines: Fall 2015

3. National Headlines, 2016
As the new school year begins, there has been lots of press on teacher shortages across the Nation. For example, one Florida article shared that the Tampa bay area is short over a 1,000 teachers. Shortages are not an issue because they are a headache for the HR dept., but rather because they impact students. When schools can’t find a fully qualified teacher, districts can cancel courses, increase pupil teacher ratios, or hire underprepared or substitute teachers. For example in Utah, as a response to shortages, the state has recently allowed schools to hire teachers with no training what so ever.

4. California Teacher Shortages Are Getting Worse, 2016

5. Teacher Preparation Enrollments Down Nationally
35%
One reason schools are struggling to find teachers is there has been a decline in individuals entering the pipeline. In the last 5 years teacher education enrollments have declined by a third, which means there are close to two-hundred and forty thousand fewer individuals on their way into teaching in 2014 as compared to The declining supply—driven in part by layoffs—was not of huge concern, during the recession when schools were not hiring. But…, the labor market has shifted.

6. Teacher Preparation Enrollments Down Even More in California
76%

7. California’s Teacher Shortage

8. Underprepared Teachers Are on the Rise
63%

9. National Supply and Demand Imbalance
100,000
Supply
This graph shows projected national teacher demand in black and estimated supply in blue. As you can see the black line, demand, steeply rises starting in 2013, as districts began to reinstate classes and programs that were reduced or eliminated during the recession. As we saw in the previous slide, these hiring increases come at a time teacher supply is declining. These opposing trends have left our classrooms short around 60,000 teachers this past year. If current trends continue, the shortage could be as large as100,000 teachers by 2018.
Teacher shortages look very different across subjects and locations, as a function of the various polices and conditions at play.

10. Shortages Vary by Subject Area
Special Education
Mathematics
42+DC
48+DC
Science
Almost every state is experiencing shortages in certain subjects. Shortages are particularly severe in special education, followed by math and science. And depending state demographics, more than 30 states also reported shortages in bilingual and English learner education.
40+DC
Reported Shortages
No Shortages

11. Math and Science: New Fully Prepared Teachers Decline As Underprepared Teachers Increase
14%
32%
23%
51%

12. How Are Districts Filling Vacant Teaching Positions
How Are Districts Filling Vacant Teaching Positions? (% of California Districts)

13. Déjà vu …. all over again

14. Unequal Access to Qualified Teachers in California, 2000

15. Exacerbating the Leaky Bucket
Higher attrition
(2-3 times greater
than those who are
well-prepared)
Not only are teachers without full preparation generally worse for student outcomes, but also only act as a Band-Aid solution. Research indicates these teachers leave at 2 to 3 times the rates of fully prepared teachers, creating the “leaky bucket” phenomena which is the largest driver of shortages.
Desiree will explain more about the special and important problem of attrition.
Teachers with
no preparation
Lower student outcomes

16. Californians Do Not Want to Repeat the Past

17. Teacher Attrition Drives Teacher Demand
97%
87%
Sources of shortage:
- Impt. to identify underlying reason for shortage
Lionshare of demand is attrition (nearly 90%) –
Vast majority – (2/3) mid-career, less than a third demand is retirement

18. The Importance of Attrition8%
So, annual national attrition rate 8% is driving the teacher shortage
This attrition is about double that of other high-achieving countries – Finland, Singapore, Ontario, CAN
What would happen if we cut the attrition rate in half to be comparable with high-achieving nations? 18

19. The Importance of Attrition8% 4%
This new line shows what teacher demand would be if the attrition rate were just 4%.
Virtually eliminated teacher shortage
- great for students: schools can hire the teacher who’s best for a position
Students do better when the teaching staff is more stable

20. Who leaves teaching at higher rates?
Beginning teachers
Mathematics and science teachers
Special education teachers
Teachers of English learners
Teachers in high-poverty, high-minority schools
Teachers of color
So, In order to cut attrition in half – think about who’s leaving and why
- Beginning teachers – 20-30% within 5 years
- Math/science – Less teaching preparation and opportunities for better-paid jobs
- High-poverty, high-minority – fewer resources, poor working conditions, especially vulnerable to accountability measures/sanctions that push teachers out
- Teachers of color in particular, in high poverty, high minority schools – (three quarters of teachers of color work in high minority schools) high attrition, as a result

21. Types of Reasons Given by Teachers for Leaving the Profession
Accountability pressures
Administration
Working conditions
Most teachers state that dissatisfaction of some sort is a very or extremely important reason for why they left. largest area of dissatisfaction teachers report testing and accountability measures. NCLB punitive accountability measures drove teachers out of teaching – in particular in high poverty schools
Teachers also report dissatisfaction: their administration, other school working conditions. After that family/personal. As I mentioned earlier, less than a third of all leavers say retirement was a very or extremely important reason for leaving.
This is important – If teachers were leaving to retire, we would say, hey congratulations, and look to other solutions. but that’s not the case
They’re often leaving mid-career and if they didn’t we could eliminate shortages and students would be better off

22. Administrative Support Impacts Turnover
10%
15%
20%
25% 0%
One of the key areas that teachers express dissatisfaction with is administrative support. We find a Significant relationship between administrative support and teacher turnover. (moving schools/leaving teaching)
When teachers feel strongly that their administration isn’t supportive/ encouraging, they are more than twice as likely to leave school/teaching than when they feel strongly that their administration does those things well (even when you hold constant other characteristics of the school/teacher) . Working conditions and administrative support matter and can make a difference in attrition rates –
Admin support means:
-Offering tailored professional development
- Nurturing collaboration
Acknowledging teacher accomplishments
Providing useful feedback
We see this in the states
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
SCHOOL ADMINISTRATION IS SUPPORTIVE

23. What would bring leavers back?
Financial incentives
Teaching conditions
Flexibility 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Ability to maintain teaching retirement benefits
An increase in salary
Smaller class size or smaller student load
Easier and less costly renewal of certification
State certification reciprocity
Availability of part-time teaching positions
Availability of suitable child care options
Forgiveness of student loans
Housing incentives
One sizable source of teachers are re-entrants to the profession ( 1/3 to a 1/2 of new hires each year). Right now there are not enough re-entrants to meet demand
So an important question is what would bring leavers back?
Financial incentives
Working conditions
Flexibility
Linda will describe the policies that can help address these issues and eliminate the teacher shortage

24. What Do High-Achieving Nations Do?
Competitive, equitable salaries
Strong universal preparation at little or no cost, with extensive training in partner schools
Quality mentoring
15-20 hours per week for collaborative planning
Sustained, practice-based collegial learning opportunities
Teaching careers that reward, develop, and share expertise
Sharing of best practices across classrooms & schools

25. What Matters in Recruiting and Retaining Teachers
Compensation
Preparation
Mentoring and Induction
Teaching Conditions

26. Compensation
U.S. teachers make about 20% less than other college graduates; 30% by mid-career.
Salaries have lost ground since the 1990s
Average starting salaries in 2013 ranged from $27,000 (MT) to $44,000 (AK)
In more than 30 states, a mid-career teacher heading a family of 4 is eligible for several forms of government assistance

27. Preparation and Mentoring
Preparation and early mentoring strongly influence teacher effectiveness and retention
Funding for both has declined:
The debt load for preparation has increased
Only about 2/3 of teachers receive comprehensive preparation before entering
Fewer teachers receive mentoring + principal support (down from 75% in 2008 to 59% by 2012)

28. Teaching Conditions
U.S. teachers have more teaching hours and less planning time than others in the world
Only 15% of teachers report collaborative work environments, down from 30% in 2000
Resources for teaching declined during the recession; most states are still spending less in constant dollars than in 2007
Growth in child poverty, homelessness, and trauma makes teaching more challenging

29. Policy recommendations
Better compensation packages:
Competitive, equitable salaries
Financial incentives
Housing
Child care
Build lasting teacher supply:
Forgivable loans, scholarships
High-retention preparation pathways
Grow Your Own programs
Teacher Residencies
Policy recommendations
Improve retention:
High-quality mentoring
Collegial work environments
Administrator training
Enhance mobility:
License reciprocity
Pension portability

30. This Problem Has Been Solved Before
In the 1990s, CT and NC both eliminated shortages and increased achievement by:
Increasing and equalizing salaries
Offering service scholarships and loans
Raising standards for teacher preparation
Introducing strong mentoring systems
Offering high-quality professional development
Training principals to support teaching

31. Discontinued and Inactive Teacher Recruitment Programs in California
Program
Funding History/Timeline
Teacher Recruitment Incentive Program (TRIP)
* Funded beginning in * Suspended
California Center for Teaching Careers (CalTeach)
* Funded beginning in 1997 * Funding peaked in and * Suspended (CDE took over website)
Governor's Teaching Fellowship
* Funded beginning in * Suspended
Cal Grant T
* Funded beginning in * Discontinued
Teacher Retention Tax Credit
* Funded beginning in 2000 * Suspended 2002, reinstated 2003, suspended again 2004
Mathematics Initiative for Teaching
* Funded beginning in 1998 * Significantly reduced * Eliminated
Teaching as a Priority (TAP) Block Grant
* Funding began, peaked in * Funding suspended in * Rolled into PD Block Grant in
Assumption Program of Loans for Education (APLE)
* Long-standing loan forgiveness program * New warrants suspended in (active recipients still received remaining funds)

32. Policy Recommendations
Reinstate the CalTeach Program to support recruitment.
Use service scholarships and forgivable loans to attract diverse, talented individuals to teach in high-need locations and fields
Create early pipelines into teaching, such as High School Career Pathways and Grow Your Own Programs.
Invest in innovative preparation programs such as Teaching Residencies and Blended Special Education Programs, including undergraduate models.
Ensure that new teachers have access to high-quality mentoring.
Provide incentives that support teachers’ ability to stay in or re-enter the profession (e.g. salaries, housing supports, streamlined entry for re- entrants and out-of-state recruits, retiree options)
Improve teaching conditions by supporting administrator training for creating productive teaching and learning environments.

33. We Can Solve it Again
“For the past decade, I’ve worked at a school where 97 percent of the children qualify for free and reduced-price lunch. I stay because the school climate is good for children and teachers alike. I stay because my principal is wonderful, supports us, does what’s best for children, and because I trust her. I stay because my colleagues are gifted teachers and good company and because I continually learn from them.”
-- Kirsten Ragatz, 20-year Minneapolis teacher

34. Addressing the Teacher Shortage: What States and Districts Can Do
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