1. Rapid Update Cycle-RUC

3. RUC
A major issue is how to assimilate and use the rapidly increasing array of offtime or continuous observations (not a 00 and 12 UTC world anymore!
Want very good analyses and very good short-term forecasts (1-3-6 hr)
The RUC ingests and assimilates data hourly, and then makes short-term forecasts
Uses the MAPS mesoscale model…which uses a hybrid sigma/isentropic vertical coordinate
Resolution: 13 km and 50 levels

4. Domain

5. 13km RUC
Terrain elevation m interval

6. Observations used in RUC
Data Type ~Number Freq.
Rawinsonde /12h
NOAA profilers / 1h
VAD winds / 1h
Aircraft (V,temp) / 1h
Surface/METAR / 1h
Buoy/ship / 1h
GOES precip water / 1h
GOES cloud winds / 1h
GOES cloud-top pres 10 km res / 1h
SSM/I precip water / 6h
GPS precip water ~ / 1h
Mesonet ~ / 1h
METAR-cloud-vis-wx ~ / 1h

7. RUC History – NCEP (NMC) implementations
- First operational implementation of RUC
- 60km resolution, 3-h cycle
1998 – 40km resolution, 1-h cycle,
- cloud physics, land-sfc model
2002 – 20km resolution
- addition of GOES cloud data in assimilation
2003 – Change to 3dVAR analysis from previous OI
(April)
2004 – Vertical advection, land use (April)
PBL-depth for surface assimilation (September)
2005 – 13km resolution, new obs, new model physics
(June)
2011 – WRF-based Rapid Refresh w/ GSI to replace RUC

8. WRF RUC
A new version of RUC has been developed, that uses the WRF model instead of the MAPS model. Called the Rapid Refresh. Now running, will replace RUC this year.

9. Rapid Refresh: 13 km but larger domain

10. High-Resolution Rapid Refresh: 3 km, 1 hr, smaller domain

16. RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System)
NWS New Mesoscale Analysis System for verifying model output and human forecasts.

19. RTMA
Downscales a short-term forecast to fine-resolution terrain and coastlines and then uses observations to produce a fine-resolution analysis.
Performs a 2-dimensional variational analysis (2d-var) using current surface observations, including mesonets, and scatterometer winds over water, using short-term forecast as first guess.
Provides estimates of the spatially-varying magnitude of analysis errors
Also includes hourly Stage II precipitation estimates and Effective Cloud Amount, a GOES derived product
Either a 5-km or 2.5 km analysis.

20. RTMA
The RTMA depends on a short-term model forecast for a first guess, thus the RTMA is affected by the quality of the model's analysis/forecast system
CONUS first guess is downscaled from a 1-hour RUC forecast.
Because the RTMA uses mesonet data, which is of highly variable quality due to variations in sensor siting and sensor maintenance, observation quality control strongly affects the analysis.

21. Why does NWS want this?
Gridded verification of their gridded forecasts (NDFD)
Serve as a mesoscale Analysis of Record (AOR)
For mesoscale forecasting and studies.

22. RTMA 2dVAR update
RUC-RTMA downscaling
to detailed RTMA background

23. RTMA 2dVAR update
RUC-RTMA downscaling
to detailed RTMA background

24. TX 2 m Temperature Analysis

25. TX 2 m Temperature Analysis

26. TX 2 m Temperature Increment