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Jiaze (JZ) Li and Jack Lindblad
Miller Industries Inc., Presented April 6, 2017 Jiaze (JZ) Li and Jack Lindblad hi
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Agenda 1 2 3 4 Company Overview Financial Analysis
Macroeconomy and Industry Agenda 3 Financial Analysis 4 Valuation Consideration
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1 PART ONE Company Overview 。
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Current Holdings Portfolio Weight by Cost Portfolio Weight by Value
MLR has generated solid return since buying Portfolio Weight by Cost Portfolio Weight by Value Share Performance Buy $20.59 Realized Return % Sell $26.60 Buy at May 5, Sell at Source: Portfolio data from RCMP website. Accessed April 5, 2017. Source: Share price and volume information from Yahoo! Finance. As of April 6, 2017
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Business Overview Overview Key Statistics Products Wrecker Car Carrier
Millers Industries is a leading towing equipment manufacturer Overview Key Statistics The world’s largest manufacturer of towing and recovery equipment Founded in 1994 in Ooltewah, Tennessee Products: Towing and recovery equipment including Wrecker, car carrier, and transport trailers 5 production facilities in US, 1 in UK, 1 in France Consolidating production to Greeneville and Ooltewah, Tennessee NYSE: MLR Share Price1: $24.00 Market Cap2: Mil. Trailing P/E3: 13.71 Dividend Yield4: 0.72 (2.80%) Products Wrecker Car Carrier Transport Trailer Source: 1,2,3,4 data from Bloomberg as of April 5, 2017 Source: Financial information from Year 2016 – 10-K Source: Products picture from Millers Industries Website
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Brand Portfolio Wrecker and car carrier
Millers Industries has10 product lines targeting different customer base Wrecker and car carrier Founded in 1974, “top of the line” 1 11 Increasing popular car carriers Can transport single or multiple vehicle 1 11 Mid-priced wreckers “Most recognized brand domestically + internationally” 1 11 Prem. Light and heavy duty wreckers, which is sold under independent distributor 1 11 Premium multi-vehicle transport trailers Can hold up to 7 vehicles 1 11 “Eagle” (light duty wreckers by acquisition) and “Champion” (lower-priced car carriers) 1 11 Prem. wreckers and car carrier Independent distributor network 1 11 Wreckers and car carriers in France, sold in Europe Fit into local narrow roads 1 11 Roll-off system and slide-back carriers Transport large equipment 1 11 Heavy duty wreckers used to tow tour buses Manufacturing in UK 1 11 Source: Logo pictures from Miller Industries webpage. Source: Brand description from K.
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Independent Distributors
Value Chain Analysis Supplier Distributor Customer 1 Light Duty Wrecker Professional wrecker operators Repossession towing services Local and national governmental entities Repair shop or salvage company owners Independent Distributors Raw materials including aluminum, sheet steels 80 distributors serving domestic and foreign market Heavy Duty Wrecker Professional wrecker operators serving the needs of commercial vehicle operators Governmental entities Selected by the United States General Services Administration as an approved source for certain federal and defense agencies. 2 Components from third-parties - hydraulic cylinders, winches, valves and pumps Prime Contractor Serving large organizations including government entities Car Carrier Equipment rental companies that offer delivery service Professional towing operators who desire to complement their existing towing capabilities Source: Logo pictures from Miller Industries webpage. Source: K.
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Production and Expansion
Production Facilities Acreage (Square Feet) Function Plan Ooltewah, TN 279000, plus 53,000 under construction Light and heavy duty wreckers Expand Hermitage, Pennsylvania 275,380 Car carrier - Mercer, Pennsylvaniain 110,000 Car carrier and light duty wreckers Close 2 in Greeneville, Tennessee 135,000, plus 50,000 leased property Heavy duty wreckers and trailers Lorraine, France 205,000 Wreckers and car carrier Norfolk, England 48,000 Capital Expenditure in 2017 Production Facility Expansion Cost in total approximately $20,600. $8,000 of these costs were incurred as of December 31, 2016 and are included in PP&E The remainder of these costs are expected to be incurred during 2017 Construction of Administrative Building The Company intends to construct an administrative building at its Ooltewah, Tennessee facility The current estimated costs of such project are approximately $4,200 Expected to be incurred during 2017 Source: K form
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Institutional Investors
Management and Investors Experienced Management Key Executive Profile Institutional Investors Deborah Whitmire January 2017 – since CFO and Treasurer 2014 – 2016 VP and Corporate Controller 2005 – 2014 Corporate Controller 2000 – 2005 Director of Finance Controller 1996 – 1997 Miller Accounting Manager Jeffery I. Badgley December 2013 – since Co-CEO March 2011 – December 2013 CEO June 1996 – March 2011 President 1994 – 1996 Vice President 1988 – 1996 President of Millers Towing Equipment Inc. 87.5% of total shares held by institutional investors with 4.04% held by insiders Source: Executive information from K form Source: Profile picture from Source: Investor information from Yahoo! Finance. As of April 6, 2017
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SWOT SWOT Strength Weakness Opportunity Threat
Market Leadership but competing in a cyclical industry Strength Weakness Market leader in towing equipment industry (diverse product portfolio + international distribution channel) Effective cost management Clean balance sheet which leaves buffer for cyclicality Thin profit margin of 3.3% Cyclical nature of the industry Strong bargaining power of customer (government entities) SWOT Opportunity Threat Market penetration in domestic market International expansion primarily in Europe Acquisition to strengthen market leadership Demand level is affected by fuel prices New competition Political turmoil esp. in Euro Access to capital market S Economies of scale for either marketing and production purposes. O International expansion – domestification W T: government cut exp.
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2 PART TWO Macroeconomics and Industry Analysis
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Macroeconomic Overview
Cost of Goods Sold highly dependent on Steel and Aluminum Prices Buyers ability to purchase dependent on Interest Rates and Fuel Prices Exchange rates effect demand for export of goods Towing and Recovery Services Industry driven by the number of accidents which is driven by a variety of factors: Severe Weather Disposable Income and Consumer Confidence Number of Vehicle Accidents Number of motor vehicle registrations Total Vehicle Miles Average age of Vehicle fleet Source: IBIS World.
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Number of Motor Vehicle Registrations
01 02 05 03 04 More new cars on the road, more accidents Naturally, amount decreased during recression but then picked up IBIS projects it to grow at 1.2% over next five years as population grows but consumers face higher oil prices and interest rates Source: IBISWorld Automobile Towing n the US industry report.
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Average Age of Vehicle Fleet
01 02 05 03 04 Older cars breakdown and cause more accidents As a result of a variety of factors the average age of vehicles has been increasing Even though Consumer Confidence and Disposable Income have been increasing the average age of fleet has increased Cars are lasting longer and financially catious drivers choosing to repair car as opposed to buying a new one Source: IBISWorld Automobile Towing n the US industry report.
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Total Vehicle Miles 01 02 05 03 04 The more driving activity the greater the amount of accidents Financial crisis and recession had combined effect of causing people to choose other forms of transportation As economy picked up and more people went back to work, total vehicle miles increased IBIS expects amount to plateau as businesses look to technology/internet to reduce transportation costs Source: IBISWorld Automobile Towing n the US industry report.
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Number of Vehicle Accidents
01 02 05 03 04 Naturally, the greater the amount of vehicle accidents the greater amount of towing is required Number of Accidents has decreased over the long term as cars and roads have become safer Number of accidents also decreased during recession when people drove less IBIS projects the number of accidents to decrease slightly then remain stagnat as cars become increasingly safer Source: IBISWorld Automobile Towing n the US industry report.
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Industry Analysis Miller is the world leader in wrecker and car carrier manufacturing In the U.S. Currently a $627 Million industry with 3 leaders accounting for ¾ of all sales The rest of the market is accounted for by small regional companies that service highly customized demand High barriers to Entry due to level of patented designs Demand for Wreckers and Car Carriers has been high due to pent up demand from which should continue to drive sales over next few years Competition for sales in this industry is driven by product quality and innovation, price and service Competition also comes from the market for used towing and recovery equipment 01 02 05 03 04 Source: Markets and Research Vocational Truck/Body Industry in North America Report
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Jerr-Dan Principal Competitor 01 02 05 03 04
Subsidiary of publically traded Oshkosh Corporation $42.36 M in Sales Also sells light and heavy duty wreckers, and car carriers Sells through distributors in US, Canada, Europe, and Australia Has been granted a variety of patents including the advanced rollback wheel-lift and Dual Angle Deck 01 02 05 03 04 Source: Oshkosh Corporation K
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Miller Industries Historical Cyclicality
-63% 01 02 -32% 05 03 04 Source: Miller Industries Historical Financial Data. Data from Capital IQ.
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3 PART THREE Financial Analysis
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Profitability Ratio Millers has been increasing cost efficiency and turnover to improve profitability Thin profit margin on industry level Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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Efficiency Ratio Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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Greenblatt Ratio . Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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Dupont Analysis Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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4 PART FOUR Valuation
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Financial Projections
Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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Discount Rate 8.83% 13.89% Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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Discounted Cash Flow Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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Comparables Supreme Industries- Manufactures and Sells specialized commercial vehicles Spartan Motors-Manufactures and Sells specialized commercial vehicles including Emergency Response Vehicles, Fleet Vehicles, and Specialty Chassis for Drill Rigs and Buses 标题数字等都可以通过点击和重新输入进行更改。 03 输入标题 输入标题 CVGI-Designs, Manufactures, and Sells various cab related products for commercial vehicles 输入标题 输入标题 02 标题数字等都可以通过点击和重新输入进行更改。 Oshkosh-Designs, Manufactures, and Markets specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies worldwide Wabash -Designs, Manufactures, and Sells semi-trailers and liquid transportation systems Source: Capital IQ.
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03 02 04 Comparables Valuation 输入标题 输入标题 输入标题 输入标题
标题数字等都可以通过点击和重新输入进行更改。 03 输入标题 输入标题 输入标题 输入标题 02 04 标题数字等都可以通过点击和重新输入进行更改。 Source: Capital IQ Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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03 02 Valuation 75% $24.60 DCF Price Intrinsic Value 输入标题 输入标题 $25.40
$27.79 25% Comp Price
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Scenario Analysis $27.88 $17.10 Source: Capital IQ. Analyst projection.
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Recommendation $27.88 Hold Bull Case $25.40 Upside
International Expansion Domestic Penetration Cost Efficiencies Clear Industry Leader Intrinsic Value $24.00 Stock Price Downside Cyclical Industry Potential for Significant Contraction Strong Balance Sheet provides protection $17.10 Bear Case
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THANKS FOR YOUR WATCHING
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