1. What Can We Learn From It?
End Use Load Research
What Is It?
What Can We Learn From It?
What Do We Know?
What Don’t We Know?
Tom Eckman – NPCC
Jeff Harris - NEEA

2. NEEA RBSA metering data provided by Ecotope
What’s End-Use Data?
NEEA RBSA metering data provided by Ecotope

3. End-Use Load Research What Is It?
Basics
Short-interval metering
Seconds
Minutes
Hourly
Metering
End-use (e.g., refrigerator, space heating system)
Sub-end use (e.g., ice-maker, heat pump compressor, electric resistance backup)
What Gets Metered
Watts, volts & amps (aka-True RMS power)
Temperatures (interior, ambient, furnace supply and returns, etc.)
Other power characteristics (e.g., harmonics)

4. What Can We Learn From It?
Load forecast, especially for capacity planning
Forecast of future load shapes as technology mix and efficiency changes
Transmission and distribution system planning
Forecast of future load and coincidence factors for system design
Impact of changing equipment (e.g. less resistance load, electronics) mix on power factor and other system attributes
Demand Response
Identification of both “Inc” and “Dec” opportunities
Energy Efficiency planning
Verification of actual kWh and KW reductions
Determining cost-effectiveness and priority for development of efficiency measure based on their system load impacts
Rate making
Cost-of-service cost allocation based on contribution to peak

5. The Details Importance of End-use Data
Load Forecasting – while many of the regional planners effectively use econometric models, a better understanding of end-use loads would provide the opportunity to isolate and differentiate trends associated with specific technologies, determine impacts of forthcoming codes and standards and assess the effects of changes in energy efficiency policy, not captured by econometric trend forecasting;
Capacity Planning and Demand Response – the region is facing a capacity challenge where an understanding of end-use load patterns is necessary for designing effective demand response programs to help manage peaks;
Integrated Resource Planning – provides necessary detail on the hourly impacts helping to establish the value proposition for the energy efficiency portfolio, or the measures that make up a cost effective portfolio;
Grid Operations and Reliability – used to update critical components of regional transmission operating models with current customer load information helping to operate the grid reliably and economically;
Wind Integration – understanding of end-use load patterns is a critical element needed to help integrate intermittent renewable resources into the resource mix;
Smart Grid Investments – potentially outdated and inaccurate load shapes are still being used to assess the costs and benefits of demand response including the application of smart appliances from a utility and grid perspective; and
Energy Efficiency Planning – provides the basis for determining the benefits and costs associated with measures and programs helping to direct energy efficiency investment decisions;
Energy Efficiency Evaluation – assigns time differentiated impacts to energy efficiency measures and portfolios helping to improve program designs to become more cost effective at obtaining energy resources;
Rates and Pricing – provides information for use in designing customized rates/riders targeted at specific end-uses and provides insight into the likely impacts of time differentiated rates. An example would be the development of an off-peak charging rate for the promotion of electric vehicles;
Customer Service – facilitates partnership between electric service providers and customers through enhanced knowledge and understanding of end-use contribution to typical customer usage patterns fostering consumer education, utility response to high bill complaints, rate impact estimation, energy efficiency target marketing and other customer service touch points.

6. What Do We Know? The Current State of End Use Load Research
The Good News - Bonneville conducted a comprehensive End Use Load Research (EULR) project, the End-Use Load and Consumer Assessment Program (ELCAP)*
The Bad News – This year marks the 25th anniversary of when the last ELCAP data was collected
There have been no comparable studies in the US or Canada since then
There are none planned
*The ELCAP was later designated as the Regional End-Use Metering Project (REMP)

7. What Was Collected in ELCAP?
ELCAP began in 1983 and ended in 1991
ELCAP Goal – Collect a comprehensive set of customer characteristics and hourly end-use electricity consumption and weather data from residential and commercial sector consumers
ELCAP Product - Created hourly (8760) load profiles at the individual end use and building level along with associated customer characteristics and weather data

8. ELCAP Sample Residential Commercial
Detached Single Family (~340 homes)
Three space heating system types
Three “vintages”
10 major end uses
Commercial
9 building types
15+ major end uses

9. Where’s The ELCAP Data? We Nearly Lost It All!
PNNL collected and archived (paper and electronic) all the project data
BPA had some of it, but so far as we could find, doesn’t anymore
PNNL had no long term plan for preservation after original ELCAP project staff retired
In 2012, the Council’s Regional Technical Forum worked with “retiring” PNNL staff to catalog, retrieve, organize, convert to electronic form and make publicly available on the web all aggregate and site level ELCAP data (

10. Common Concerns About ELCAP and Existing EULR Data Sources*
They’re Old
The last ELCAP data was collected in 1989
They Don’t Reflect Current Building and Equipment Stock
Appliance characteristics and usage have changed (e.g., increased efficiency standards);
There are new emerging/growing technologies (e.g., computers, plasma TVs, Electric Vehicles, variable speed drives, demand controlled loads, LED’s, etc.);
New appliances, lighting and equipment are “electronic” and may have differ Power Factors than existing “resistance” based appliance, lighting and equipment
They Don’t Provide Energy Savings Load Shapes
Energy Efficiency measure savings, especially controls, do not have the same shapes as their end-use load shapes (e.g., occupancy sensors are designed to turn off lights during the day when no one is present)
*Results of a RTF Regional and National Review of the Business Case for End Use Load Research

11. Are These Concerns Warranted? Let’s Compare To Some More Recent Data
The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) Research
Residential Building Stock Assessment “Test Bed”
EULR study of approximately 100 single family homes
Preliminary (1st year) results are now available
Ductless Heat Pump Pilot Program
Detailed 5 minute interval data on approximately 100 ductless heat pumps
Heat Pump Water Heater Pilot Program
Detailed 5 minute interval data on approximately 50 heat pump water heaters
While not as comprehensive as ELCAP these studies do provide some insights into what’s changed and what hasn’t, but only in the residential sector

12. Four Case Studies
Electric water heating- Improvements in efficiency since 1990 have reduced annual energy consumption from 4,700 kWh/yr to 3,000 kWh/yr
What was the reduction in coincident peak demand?
How will future changes in water heating technology (i.e., the conversion to heat pump water heaters) impact coincident peak demands and opportunities for demand response?
Residential Refrigerators – Improvements in efficiency since 1990 have reduced annual energy consumption from 1,500 kWh/yr to slightly less than 500 kWh/yr
What impact has this had on the options for demand response?
Residential space heating – Supplementing existing zonal electric heating systems (e.g. baseboard, radiant ceiling, wall heaters) with Ductless Heat Pumps can reduce annual space heating use by 40-60%
What is the potential reduction in coincident peak demand?
What impact will the conversion of resistance heating to compressor-based heating have on Power Factor?
What impact will it have on “cold-start” after outages?
Residential lighting – Federal efficiency standards are changing the mix of lighting technologies from primarily (90%) incandescent lamps to over 60% fluorescent (CFLs) /solid state (LED) lamps.
What is the potential reduction in coincident peak demand from this change?
What impact will this have on residential Power Factors?

13. Testing Conventional Wisdom
Despite efficiency improvements, residential water heating and refrigerator load profiles are pretty much the same as they were in Aren’t they?
Heat pumps save energy, but have little or no capacity benefit when it gets really cold. Or do they?
Residential consumers use lighting pretty much when they did in Are we sure?
Residential “power factors” are very close to 1.0. Do we know that for sure?

14. PNW System Daily Load Profile Then (1993) and Now (2012)
Winter System Peak:
8 – 9 AM
7 – 8 PM
Weather Normalized PNW Loads, without DSIs

15. ELCAP Residential Water Heating Load Shape
System Winter Peak Hours

16. Residential Water Heating Load Profile Then (1990) and Now (2012)
System Winter Peak Hours

17. Residential Water Heating PNW Hourly Demand Then (1990) and Now (2012)
System Winter Peak Hour Savings

18. Capacity Savings From Residential Water Heating Efficiency Improvements Between 1990 and Today Were Three Times Their Annual Energy Savings
1990
2012
Annual Use (kWh)
4,700
3,000
Savings/Unit (kWh)
1,700
Water heater stock <55g
2,701,101
3,489,689
Water heater stock >55g
300,122
337,815
Water heater stock - Total
3,001,223
3,827,504
Annual Load (aMW)
1,610
1,311
PNW 2012 Savings (aMW)
299
Coincident Peak Load (MW)
2,941
2,034
Coincident Peak Savings (MW)
907

19. Current Water Heating Load Factors Are Higher

20. As A Result Using Old (ELCAP) Load Profiles Understate the Capacity Impact of Changes in Water Heater Efficiency
1990
2012 – ELCAP Load Shape
2012 – RBSA Load Shape
Annual Use (kWh)
4,700
3,000
Savings/Unit (kWh)
1,700
Water heater stock <55g
2,701,101
3,489,689
Water heater stock >55g
300,122
337,815
Water heater stock - Total
3,001,223
3,827,504
Annual Load (aMW)
1,610
1,311
PNW 2012 Savings (aMW)
299
Coincident Peak Load (MW)
2,941
2,370
2,034
Coincident Peak Savings (MW)
572
907

21. Federal Standards Will Decrease Water Heating Energy Use Further Altering This End Uses Load Shape
Winter System Peak Hours

22. Capacity Impact of Changes in Water Heater Efficiency Due to New Federal Standards
2012 ER
2012 HPWH
Annual Use (kWh)
3,000
2,000
Savings/Unit (kWh)
1,000
Water heater stock >55g
337,815
Annual Load (aMW)
116 77
PNW 2012 Savings (aMW) 39
Coincident Peak Load (MW)
174
108
Coincident Peak Savings (MW) 66
Without More Recent End Use Load Research We Would Not Be Able to Estimate the Capacity Impacts of Heat Pump Water Heaters.

23. Compared to the Stock in 1990 the Current Stock of Refrigerators Uses One-Third the Energy and Requires One-Half the Capacity
Winter System Peak Hours
Today’s better insulated refrigerators are less sensitive to ambient air temperature

24. Since Refrigerator Load Profiles Have Not Changed Significantly ELCAP Data Is Still A Reasonable Representation of Capacity Impacts
1990
2012 – ELCAP Load Shape
2012 – RBSA Load Shape
Annual Use (kWh)
1,500
500
Savings/Unit (kWh)
1,000
Water heater stock - Total
4,635,877
7,148,904
Annual Load (aMW)
794
408
PNW 2012 Savings (aMW)
386
Coincident Peak Load (MW)
762
390
391
Coincident Peak Savings (MW)
372
371

25. On the Other Hand, There Are Subtle “Within Hour” Differences That Might Matter for Demand Response
Note difference in use following “defrost” cycle
Defrost Cycle

26. Ductless Heat Pumps Have Both Energy and Capacity Benefits

27. Ductless Heat Pumps Capacity Benefits Even On Extreme Winter Peak Days

28. Ductless Heat Pump Provide Air Conditioning – So Summer Loads Will Increase Slightly

29. Potential System Impacts from Ductless Heat Pumps
Electric Zonal Heat
Electric Zonal w/DHP Supplement
Electric Zonal Extreme Peak
Annual Use (kWh)
9,683
6,359
6.2 (KW)
2.7 (KW)
Savings/Unit (kWh)
3,324
3.46 (KW)
Existing Baseboard Heated Stock
542,600
Annual Load (aMW)
600
394
N/A
Potential Savings (aMW)
206
Winter Coincident Peak Load (MW)
1,726
483
3,343
1,466
Winter Coincident Peak Savings (MW)
1,243
1,877
Summer Coincident Peak Load (MW) 43
112
Summer Coincident Peak Savings (MW)
(68)

30. Lighting Energy Use Scenario LPD (W/ft^2) Annual Energy (kWh/yr) ELCAP
3.54
4500
Current Survey (RBSA)
1.40
1845
Full EISA Compliance w/ EISA targets
1.18
1555
Full EISA Compliance w/ CFLs
0.85
1120
Four scenarios
1990 – Lighting load as measured in ELCAP
2012 – Lighting load as measured in RBSA
Full EISA compliance with EISA targets assume all currently non-complying, non-exempt lamps are replaced with their minimum compliance equivalents
Full EISA compliance with CFLs assumes all non-complying, non-example lamps replaced with CFL equivalents
Annual energy use is for 2,006ft2 house with 1.8 hours per day of on-time (Source: RBSA sample house size and lighting on-time metering)

31. Residential Lighting Load Profiles Lighting Is Now Contributing Significantly Less to Both Morning and Evening Peaks
System Winter Peak Hours

32. Historical and Forecast System Impacts from Residential Lighting Efficiency Improvements
Lighting Loads (ELCAP) Stock & Efficiency
Lighting Loads (ELCAP load shape, 2012 stock & efficiency)
RBSA Lighting Load Shape Stock & Efficiency
Post-EISA 2020 Lighting Standards Loads (2012 Stock)
Annual Use (kWh)
4,500
1,770
1,080
Savings/Unit (kWh)
2,730
690
Single Family Residential Stock
4,021,706
5,798,217
Total Annual Lighting Loads (aMW)
2,066
1,172
715
PNW 2012 Savings (aMW)
894
457
Coincident Peak Load (MW) - Morning
2,080
1,181
1,227
747
Coincident Peak Load (MW) - Evening
2,884
1,638
1,852
1,127
Coincident Peak Load Savings (MW) - Morning
898
852
480
Coincident Peak Load Savings (MW) - Evening
1,246
1,032
725

33. What’s All This Mean
The region’s development of energy efficiency resources also has capacity impacts
Our knowledge of the relationship between energy and capacity savings is based on data collected 25 years ago
Let’s see just how much difference using updated data for just two end uses makes

34. 2010 -2012 Utility Efficiency Program Savings

35. January Day Hourly Savings Change with Updated Data

36. Annual Energy and Winter Capacity Savings from 2010-2012 Utility Efficiency Programs

37. Residential Power Factors Are They 1.0?
In the next two slides, Serv_A is one leg of the service electric supply to the house while Serv_B is the other
Each point is the average power factor over a single day at a single site

38. Power Factor – Service Leg A

39. Power Factor – Service Leg B

40. 14 January 2013
14 July 2012
14 April 2012
14 October 2012

41. Are Residential Power Factors Changing?
Traditional residential resistance loads (.e.g., lighting, space and water heating) are being replaced with electronics and compressors (heat pumps)
30% of the lamps in homes are already CFLs
At least 60% will be CFLs or LEDs with 7-8 years
In addition, there is an increasing saturation of consumer electronics
2.3 TVs/household, 1.5 computers/household, 1.6 set top boxes/household, 1.5 game consoles/household

42. Summary
ELCAP load shapes may still be accurate (e.g., refrigerators) or have errors as large as a simple cycle combustion turbine on peak (e.g., water heating, lighting). Unfortunately, without new load research, we don’t know which is the case for those end uses we didn’t measure.
New equipment (DHPs and HPWH) not covered by ELCAP may significantly (>1000 MWp) reduce future capacity needs.
Power Factor is becoming significant - Residential averages <0.90; as low as 0.60
Don’t know if PF is leading or lagging; could help or hurt at individual feeder level
Future will see even more change:
more compressors,
less resistance loads,
more switching power supplies,
smaller inductive loads,
Federal standards (HPWHs, lighting, HP dryers.

43. Summary (2)
Significant opportunities for additional peak shifting (HPWH’s, DHP’s ,refrigerator defrost) may exist, but can’t be identified or quantified without further EULR
New efficiency opportunities largely involve “controls.”
These controls are deliberately designed to change the underlying end- use load shape (e.g., occupancy sensors, day lighting controls, variable speed drives).
There are no plans to collect data on the impact of these controls
The RBSA meters are now scheduled to be removed at the end of March 2014 (next month)
There are no plans to collect data comparable to the RBSA in the commercial, industrial or agricultural sectors

44. Backup Select RBSA Metering Load Shapes and Power Factor

45. Annual December Daily System Weather Normalized Loads

46. 14 January 2013
14 July 2012
14 April 2012
14 October 2012

48. Operating profile of two refrigerators, each in a different house, for two days in the summer. Both are located in kitchens. The refrigerator at site was manufactured in 1995, and the refrigerator at was manufactured in Although both refrigerators show a typical cyclic behavior, a demand response opportunity lies in the defrost control. Both pieces of equipment have automatic defrost, which is indicated by the spike in power to 800 W (in blue) and 425 W (in red). They defrost as needed but do not repeat at any obvious frequency. Post-defrost, both compressors run for a longer period of time, presumably to reduce the temperatures after the defrost. A simple control could be conceived to restrict the times when the defrost occurs to off-peak hours, thereby reducing peak demand.

52. DHP winter peak day (Jan 11, 2011) compared to winter average day.
90+ sites compared

53. Residential Water Heating Load Profiles Will Continue to Change
2015 Federal Standard for Electric Water Heaters > 55 gal. capacity

54. Refrigerator Annual Energy Use by Vintage
Manufacture Date Bin
Primary Refrigerator Annual kWh by Vintage
Mean EB n
Pre 1994
699.4
99.8 8
734.8
49.6 19
636.2
49.4 31
496.7
29.6 33
Post 2009
520.2
95.9
Total
604.4
24.8 99