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ASC Transactions – Current Analysis & Valuation Trends
Kevin Mcdonough, CFA Senior Manager 13155 Noel Road, Suite 2400 • Dallas, Texas • Telephone: • Fax: 3100 West End Avenue, Suite 940 • Nashville, Tennessee • Telephone: • Fax:
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Presentation Overview
Current Market Observations ASC Transaction Market What Does the Future Hold?
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Current Market Analysis
Observing a Maturation of the ASC Industry Economic Downturn / Sluggish Recovery Continues to Impact ASC Volumes Significant Managed Care & Medicare Reimbursement Pressure Uncertainty Regarding Healthcare Reform’s Long-Term Impact on ASCs
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Current Market Analysis
All Signs Point to a Mature ASC Industry Growth in ASC Development has Leveled Off Same Center Growth has Flat-Lined ASC Supply Exceeds Physician Demand in Most Markets Significant Capacity at Many ASCs Growth in Observed ASC Mergers & Consolidation Initial Stages of Consolidation among ASC Management Companies
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Current Market Analysis
Declining Growth in New ASC Development Prior to 2008: Significant ASC Development to Meet Physician Demand Post 2008: Supply of ASCs has Met or Exceeded Physician Demand >10% Annual Growth 2-3% Annual Growth
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Current Market Analysis
Same Center Growth has Flat-Lined Source: Company’s Annual Reports Market Forces Driving this Trend: Diminishing Ability to Attract New Volume / Physicians Trend has been Accelerated by the Economic Downturn
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Current Market Analysis
Growing Excess Capacity in Existing ASCs Median Cases per OR per Day 25% Decline in OR Utilization from 2007 to 2010 Source: VMG Health Intellimarker ASC Survey
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Current Market Analysis
Supply of ASCs has Exceeded Demand from Physicians # of Eligible Physicians per ASC 9-10% Annual Growth in ASCs 2-3% Annual Growth in Eligible Drs >40% Decline In Eligible Drs Per ASC
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Current Market Analysis
Aging Physician Demographic will Further Limit Recruitment & Volume Demographics of the Physician Workforce 1980 – Approx 20% over Age 55 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 400 450 500 1980 1990 2009 Under 35 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & Over Age 45 and over Age under 44 Number of Physicians (Thousands) Age Group 550 600 2000 650 1990 – Approx 30% over Age 55 2009 – Approx 40% over Age 55 Source: “Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US” by American Medical Association (2011 Edition)
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Current Market Analysis
Supply of New Physicians will Likely not Meet Demand of Existing ASCs First – Year MD Enrollment per 100,000 Population has Declined Since 1980 Source: “Help Wanted: More US Doctors – Projections Indicate American will Face Shortage of MDs by 2020” by AAMC
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Current Market Analysis
New Competition: Growth in Hospital Employment Current and Projected Hospital Employment Since 2000: Employed PCPs has Doubled Employed Specialists has increased 5-fold
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Current Market Analysis
What to Expect in a Mature Industry Environment? Attracting Physician Investment & Volume will be the Greatest Challenge Increase in ASC Mergers & Limited ASC Failure Expected Return for ASC Investors will be Moderated Increased Involvement of Hospitals in ASC Industry Existing ASCs will need to Focus Efforts on Implementing Efficiencies
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Current Market Analysis
Current Focus – Implementing Operational Efficiency Staff Hours Per Case De-Leveraging: Debt / Total Assets Source: VMG Health Intellimarker ASC Survey
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ASC Transaction Market
ASC Acquisition Market – Who are the Buyers? ASC Management Companies – Expanding Market Presence Acute Care Hospitals – On the rise Other ASCs – Consolidation Strategies Physician Owned Hospitals – Niche Expansion Strategy
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ASC Transaction Market
The ASC Market Has Evolved… DeNovos Turnarounds Hospital Acquisition/JVs
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ASC Transaction Market
Key Recent Transactions Amsurg Corp. announces acquisition of National Surgical Care NSC – 18 ASCs $173MM transaction price 7.8x adjusted forward EBITDA 8.1x adjusted historical EBITDA Surgery Center Holdings, Inc. (Surgery Partners) acquisition of NOVA Definitive Agreement $109MM , or $13.25/share $105MM debt repayment, total transaction valued at $214MM 7.5x 2011 EBITDA
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ASC Transaction Market
Key Recent Transactions (continued) Sunlink Health Systems, Inc. announces merger with Foundation HealthCare Affiliates FHC – 14 ASCs and 1 specialty hospital Noncash merger 1.56MM common shares Contingent upon negotiation completion USPI acquisition of HealthMark Partners HealthMark – 14 ASCs $32MM acquisition value
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ASC Transaction Market
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 ASC Valuation Trends as Multiple of EBITDA Acquisition Multiples have remained High but Widened Control Multiples Minority Multiples Minority multiples have Declined and Widened 2005 Present Key Takeaway - All ASCs are Not Created Equal with Respect to Valuation Multiples
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ASC Transaction Market
What are the Nations Largest Acquirers Saying? Acquisitions in 2010 have more than doubled over 2009 and they will be even greater next year. ~ Andrew Hayek – CEO of Surgical Care Affiliates Despite troubles in the economy, our firm remains committed to pursuing a significant number of acquisition opportunities, with a focus on markets in which we have a strategic presence. ~ Christopher Holden– CEO of AMSURG Our surgery center holdings have increased two-fold over the last 2 years and we expect to continue to increase our presence in the ASC market. ~ John Dickenson – Senior Director – Catholic Healthcare West
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ASC Transaction Market
Demand for Acquisitions is High Need for ASC Management Companies to Exhibit Growth Diminished Ability to do Pursue Growth through De Novo Development Market Consolidation Strategies are being Pursued Aggressively Hospitals are Joining Management Companies in the Buyers Market Source: “Help Wanted: More US Doctors – Projections Indicate America Will Face Shortage of MDs by 2020” by AAMC
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ASC Transaction Market
ASC Acquisition History & Projections 2011 projections do not include the acquisition of ASCs through purchase of smaller management companies
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ASC Transaction Market
However Buyers are Cautious Buyers are Keenly Aware of the Challenges facing ASCs Diminished Value from the Public Market Source: “Help Wanted: More US Doctors – Projections Indicate America Will Face Shortage of MDs by 2020” by AAMC
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What Does the Future Hold?
Moderate Decline in the # of ASCs Continued Consolidation of the Industry ASC Performance will Mirror Hospital Employment Trends Survival of the Fittest will Favor ASCs in Large Markets As Low Cost Provider, ASCs Will Have a Seat at the Table Bifurcation of the Market – Strong ASCs stay Independent
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